167
FXUS61 KOKX 031043
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
Issued by National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
643 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure remains through midweek. High pressure
then weakens, allowing for a frontal system to approach from the
west. The associated cold front enters within the area late this
week and may linger nearby through the weekend before moving
east of the area early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Offshore high pressure remains in control through the near term.
As a result, the region continues to experience dry conditions
and by this afternoon, a persistent SW flow. Warm air advection
will increase as a result. Tuesday`s forecast highs are about 5
to 8 degrees warmer than the previous day, ranging from upper
70s to lower 80s for a majority of the region. Tonight,
likewise, expect the warming trend to continue as lows just will
be mainly from lower 50s to lower 60s.
Side note, there has been recent smoke aloft reported from
Canadian wildfires. This has resulted in some haze in the sky
but not significant enough to result to reduce visibilities at
the surface. The HRRR model shows a relative increase in smoke
this afternoon through tonight so perhaps another hazy sunset
is in store for this evening.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Offshore high pressure at the surface remains dominant on
Wednesday with an upper-level ridge supporting this pattern. Dry
conditions and southwesterly winds continue across the area as
a result. Temperatures continue to warm as well. Highs are
forecast to range from the upper 70s to mid 80s across most of
the region Wednesday afternoon with lows Wednesday night staying
in the 60s for most locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The synoptic ridge pattern gradually shifts to more of a trough
structure with rain eventually returning to the forecast late
week and towards the weekend.
At the surface, offshore high pressure weakens Thursday into
Friday. A frontal system from the west then approaches with its
associated cold front. This cold front lingers around the area
after it moves in before eventually shifting east of the area
late weekend towards early next week. Rain shower chances
highest Friday through Saturday night and then these rain shower
chances lower thereafter.
Warming trend continues with the warmest forecast temperatures
Thursday, with upper 80s to near 90 for some locations. Lower
temperature trend thereafter with more rain shower chances in
the forecast and eventually more northerly flow late weekend
into early next week.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday, Friday as
well as the first half of the weekend. The more trough synoptic
pattern will allow for greater moisture in the atmosphere with
higher PW values. With warmer temperatures forecast Thursday and
Friday, more low level instability would be available for
thunderstorm growth.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds through this morning, then moves offshore
this afternoon, and remains offshore into tonight.
VFR.
A light NW flow develops this morning before winds briefly
become light and variable again, then southerly by afternoon,
with sea breeze enhancement. The exception is KSWF which will
remain light and variable much of today with a light westerly
flow in the afternoon.
Smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires is likely. Low level
visibility will not be impacted.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Late Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Possible MVFR/IFR with chance of showers/tstms.
Saturday: Possible MVFR/IFR with showers likely. Chance of tstms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecast,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Conditions expected to remain below SCA thresholds on all
waters through Thursday night.
Thereafter, conditions trends go up with seas on the ocean. So,
SCA will become more probable Friday through the first half of
the weekend on the ocean. Non-ocean zones are forecast to remain
below SCA thresholds.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through midweek. Late week, there are low
probabilities for thunderstorms and forecast models indicates PW
values near 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Some locally heavy rain is
possible, especially with thunderstorms, with minor flooding
possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk for the development of rip current at the
ocean beaches Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...