201
FXUS61 KOKX 071140
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
740 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure passes by to the east this morning, then a cold
front moves through the area this afternoon into evening. Weak high
pressure then briefly follows for Sunday, followed by an area of low
pressure passing to the south and east Sunday night into Monday. A slow
moving frontal system will then work across the area Tuesday into
Tuesday night. High pressure returns Wednesday and remains near the
region through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A special weather statement has been issued for the first half
of this morning across Suffolk County and SE CT for patchy
dense fog.
A slowly moving cold front approaches from the west today. It
enters the western portion of the forecast area this afternoon
and exits to the east this evening. Showers likely across much
of the area, and some embedded thunderstorms will be possible as
well. CAPE and shear expected to be modest, so severe storms
are not anticipated.
PWATS remain climatologically a little higher than normal, but cell
training and back-building will be mitigated by the lack of
alignment between moisture field and steering winds aloft. Given the
amount of rain that occurred yesterday combined with the rain
potential for today, still cannot rule out isolated flash flooding
in the vicinity of Orange and Putnam Counties, but any hydrologic
impacts across the entire forecast area would likely be limited to
minor urban and poor drainage flooding. WPC continues to show a
marginal risk of flash flooding over the far NW portion of the area.
A low rain threat will be ongoing after sunset mainly east of the
city, then dry overnight. Ample low level moisture will also bring
the possibility of low stratus or fog development late tonight
mainly for the coast, but fog still possible elsewhere away from the
city with light to calm winds.
NBM looked good for temperatures through the near term for the most
part. Adjusted high temps upward slightly in the city and the urban
corridor of NE NJ based on early morning temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure will be in place at the start of the day, but
then weakens with the approach of a broad area of low pressure
approaching from the south and west. It should be dry through early
afternoon, then rain chances begin over the western half of the area
late afternoon. Models depict a couple of circulations passing
nearby from Sunday night into Monday - one to our NW, and a somewhat
stronger low center passing offshore to our SE. The moisture will be
sufficient, and there should at at least some shortwave lift too, so
rain chances are 30-40% for Sunday night. Rainfall for the most part
would be light, and with dry mid-levels it could even be just a
chance of drizzle late at night.
Looks like there will be some ridging aloft during Monday with the
longwave pattern amplifying during the day. This in turn will help
put a lid on shower activity as well as slow the eastward
progression of a cold front over the eastern Great Lakes Region.
Only a slight chance of a shower over the western half of the area
during the day. Chances then increase Monday night as the cold front
draws closer, but remain no higher than 50%.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The long term period starts off with a slow moving frontal system
approaching and moving across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night.
The best chances for rain at this time looks to be during the day
time, with lower chances Tuesday night. Will continue to mention a
chance of thunder, however, instability looks to be marginal at this
time. The cold front pushes across the region Tuesday night.
High pressure then builds into the region on Wednesday in the wake
of the front and remains over the area through Friday. Expect dry
and warm conditions for the second half of the week. Another low
pressure system may impact the area on Saturday.
With cloud cover and rain, temperatures on Tuesday will only be in
the lower and middle 70s. However, temperatures warm for the second
half of the week as high pressure and drier conditions return.
Temperatures on Wednesday through Friday will be in the 80s area
wide. Temperatures may be slightly cooler right along the immediate
coastline.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal system will slowly move across the terminals today,
remaining south of the area tonight.
Conditions vary from LIFR to VFR this morning. the NYC terminals
and points north and west should see conditions generally in the
IFR/MVFR range from late morning into the afternoon. Conditions
then should become VFR with the passage of a cold front. For the
terminals east of NYC, expecting a IFR with possible improvement
to MVFR at times, especially during any periods of rainfall.
However,conditions may remain MVFR or lower tonight with the
frontal boundary nearby.
Showers are expected to become more widespread this morning
and continue into the afternoon. There is also a chance of a
few thunderstorms. Will continue to mention thunder in a PROB30.
It is entirely possible that any thunder will remain isolated.
Showers will start diminishing early this evening.
Winds remain light and variable this morning. Confidence in
wind direction today is low due a weak flow and proximity of
the frontal boundary. Winds may become SW late morning/early
afternoon and then shift to the NW-N as the boundary starts
moving across the area mid afternoon into the evening. There is
also a chance winds remain variable around 5 kt for much of the
TAF period.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for changing flight categories today.
Amendments likely for timing of showers and potential thunderstorms
today. Any thunderstorm could remain isolated.
Low confidence wind direction forecast this afternoon.
Uncertainty with how much improvement occurs today.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late in the day and at
night.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and MVFR at night.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible. Showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Patchy dense fog anticipated over some of the eastern waters
until mid-morning. Not anticipating any advisories however.
After collaboration with the surrounding offices, have decided
to go with a SCA on the ocean waters today into this evening.
Waves likely in the 4-5 ft range during most of this time. Winds
otherwise remain below advisory thresholds through Monday.
Expect sub-advisory conditions to continue through Tuesday.
Waves of low pressure passing to the south and a southerly swell
will keep seas on the ocean 3 to 4 ft. Chances increase for
marginal SCA conditions for seas around 5 ft Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Seas should then fall below SCA conditions late
Wednesday into Wednesday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rain amounts today into early evening probably average around a half
of an inch, but higher locally higher amounts remain possible. See
the near term section above for potential impacts.
No widespread hydrologic impacts otherwise for tonight through
Monday.
Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night may produce at
least minor nuisance flooding. Low confidence at this time regarding
potential impacts this far ahead in time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A building SSE swell will increase to 5 ft 8-9S today.
This is expected to produce 3 to 5 ft breakers in the surf
zone and increase the rip current risk to high. Thus, a High Rip
Current Risk remains in effect today into this evening for all
locations along the oceanfront.
Swells diminish some on Sunday. A moderate rip current risk is
forecast for most locations, however a high risk should remain
along the oceanfront of eastern Suffolk County.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
353.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...