967
FXUS61 KOKX 071958
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
358 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moves through the area this afternoon into evening.
Weak high pressure then briefly follows for Sunday, followed by an
area of low pressure passing to the south and east Sunday night into
Monday. A slow moving frontal system will work across the area Tuesday into
Tuesday night. High pressure returns Wednesday and remains near the
region through Friday. Another frontal system may affect the region
late Friday into the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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A cold front slowly tracks east into western portions of the
forecast area this afternoon then exits east this evening.
Showers likely across much of the area, and some embedded
thunderstorms will be possible as well. CAPE and shear expected
to be modest, so severe storms are not anticipated.
Showers tapper off tonight with warm and muggy conditions expected
with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Fog and low level stratus
develops again overnight and into early Sunday morning mainly
for the coast, but fog still possible elsewhere away from the
city with light to calm winds.
Temperatures tonight will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Weak high pressure builds across the area on Sunday, but then
weakens with the approach of a broad area of low pressure
approaching from the south and west. It should remain dry for most
of the day with rain chances increasing late in the afternoon over
the western parts of the forecast area.
Conditions should be dry for most of the day on Monday, then chances
increase Monday night as a cold front moves closer to the area.
Temperatures on Sunday will be in the low to mid 70s with nighttime
lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler on Monday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Great Lakes closed low drifts into southern Ontario on Tuesday and
then shears NE through southern Quebec Tuesday Night into Wednesday
ahead of next northern stream shortwave/closed moving east through
southern Canada. Good model agreement in an associated trough axis
approaching Tuesday/Tue eve and pivoting through late Tue night/Wed.
At the surface, a surface trough/cold front associated with the
Great Lakes low, and southern surface wave tracking NE along the
front will approach and cross the area on Tuesday. Large scale
synoptic lift from approaching trough, NE shearing southern stream
shortwave, and modest RRJ ULJ lift of a +1-1 1/2 std PWATs airmass
will be sufficient for increasing shower activity from SW to NE Tues
Am. Overall, basin average model QPF is light, but potential for
locally heavy downpours and elevated thunder, particularly N&W of
NYC with best coincidence of mid/upper forcing, weak elevated
instability, orographic enhancement of E/SE low-level flow, and
storm motion aligning with the slow moving frontal boundary. WPC Day
4 marginal risk of excessive rainfall dropping into northern
portions of the LoHud seems reasonable to start. Overall, best upper
level forcing and instability seems to lag the surface features,
minimizing a localized flash flood threat farther SE towards the
coast. Strong to severe threat appears limited despite strong shear
profiles, due to weak instability. Shower/thunderstorm activity
should taper from W to E later Tue aft/early eve as the surface
wave, trough axis/cold front slides through.
Thereafter, warming temp for Wed thru Fri, possibly Sat as region
lies on southern edge of westerlies, with heights gradually rising
under the influence of SE US ridging and high pressure sliding in
from the West. Temps likely several degrees above seasonable Wed
(upper 70s/lower 80s), and as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal
for Thu/Fri away from south coasts (mid to upper 80s), lower 80s for
the south coast. Have blended in a slight bit of the NBM 50th with
the NBM deterministic, since the NBM deterministic lies below the
10th percentile of the NBM ensemble. Low probability (less than 30%)
of exceeding 95F heat index across NYC/NJ metro an points N&W for
Thu-Sat.
Next feature of note will be a combo of a northern stream shortwave
approaching from Hudson Bay Friday Night into Saturday, and
potential southern plains closed low partially shearing NE towards
the area. This will bring potential for a a weak cold front/pre-
frontal trough to approach as early as late Friday, and subsequent
cold front to approach/linger through Sat Night before pushing
through. Inherently low predictability on these convectively
enhanced shortwave interactions this far out, but low chance pops
are warranted to address this threat.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A cold frontal will continue to track thru the area this eve. The
front stalls offshore on Sun.
MVFR or lower with rain ahead of the fropa. Isold tstms possible,
especially right ahead of the front. Tempo for heavier shwrs, and
any tstms would likely occur within this tempo period.
Becoming mainly VFR tngt, but ern areas may drop back to IFR with
fog and low CIGs returning. Lowering clouds off the ocean on Sun,
but most areas still expected to stay VFR.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amds possible for timing of the wind shift with the front. A few
shwrs may linger behind the fropa. Isold tstms possible, especially
with the line developing across PA.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Rest of Sunday: Mainly VFR in the aftn. Chance for rain Sun ngt with
MVFR or lower.
Monday: Becoming VFR with light E flow.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with shwrs and tstms. Varying winds
with a frontal sys.
Wednesday - Thursday: VFR with W flow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Patchy dense fog across the nearshore waters through this evening
and possibly again overnight and into Sunday morning. Not
anticipating any advisories.
Below advisory conditions expected through Monday night.
Potential for 5 ft seas Tuesday night into Wednesday, mainly in S
swells as a result of a slow moving frontal system. Marginal
nearshore SCA gusts possible during the day Wed in offshore flow
behind cold front. Seas should then fall below SCA conditions late
Wednesday as high pressure builds towards the water, continuing thru
Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Rain amounts into early evening probably average around a half
of an inch, but higher locally higher amounts remain possible.
No widespread hydrologic impacts otherwise for tonight through
Monday night.
Rain amounts today into early evening probably average around a half
of an inch, but higher locally higher amounts remain possible. See
the near term section above for potential impacts.
No widespread hydrologic impacts otherwise for tonight through
Monday.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms Tuesday may produce a basin wide
1/4 to 1/2" of rain. Localized 1+" amounts possible, particularly
N&W of NYC, presenting a low and localized threat of flash flooding
on Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A building SSE swell will increase to 5 ft 8-9S today.
This is expected to produce 3 to 5 ft breakers in the surf
zone and increase the rip current risk to high. Thus, a High Rip
Current Risk remains in effect today into this evening for all
locations along the oceanfront.
SE Swells diminish to 3-4 ft on Sunday, however mixed with a long
period SE background swell and 2 ft E/ESE wind wave, a moderate to
high risk of rips should continue with breaking surf of 3 to 4,
occasionally 5 ft. A continuation of the high risk rip is warranted
based on the above.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
353.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.
&&
$$