609
FXUS61 KOKX 080311
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1111 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front pushes south and east overnight. Weak high
pressure then briefly follows for Sunday, followed by an area of
low pressure passing to the south and east Sunday night into
Monday. A slow moving frontal system will work across the area
Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure returns Wednesday and
remains near the region through Friday. Another frontal system
may affect the region late Friday into the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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A drier airmass advects into the region overnight on north to
northeast winds in the wake of a cold front. This should help
push dense fog along further southeast initially, but with
winds lightening overnight, could have some patchy fog
development overnight, especially where heavy rain occurred
earlier.
Somewhat less muggy conditions overnight, with lower tds and
temps dropping into the upper 50s across interior and LI pine
barrens, and lower 60s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Sunday, but then
weakens with the approach of a broad area of low pressure
approaching from the south and west. It should remain dry for most
of the day with rain chances increasing late in the afternoon over
the western parts of the forecast area.
Conditions should be dry for most of the day on Monday, then chances
increase Monday night as a cold front moves closer to the area.
Temperatures on Sunday will be in the low to mid 70s with nighttime
lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler on Monday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Great Lakes closed low drifts into southern Ontario on Tuesday and
then shears NE through southern Quebec Tuesday Night into Wednesday
ahead of next northern stream shortwave/closed moving east through
southern Canada. Good model agreement in an associated trough axis
approaching Tuesday/Tue eve and pivoting through late Tue night/Wed.
At the surface, a surface trough/cold front associated with the
Great Lakes low, and southern surface wave tracking NE along the
front will approach and cross the area on Tuesday. Large scale
synoptic lift from approaching trough, NE shearing southern stream
shortwave, and modest RRJ ULJ lift of a +1-1 1/2 std PWATs airmass
will be sufficient for increasing shower activity from SW to NE Tues
Am. Overall, basin average model QPF is light, but potential for
locally heavy downpours and elevated thunder, particularly N&W of
NYC with best coincidence of mid/upper forcing, weak elevated
instability, orographic enhancement of E/SE low-level flow, and
storm motion aligning with the slow moving frontal boundary. WPC Day
4 marginal risk of excessive rainfall dropping into northern
portions of the LoHud seems reasonable to start. Overall, best upper
level forcing and instability seems to lag the surface features,
minimizing a localized flash flood threat farther SE towards the
coast. Strong to severe threat appears limited despite strong shear
profiles, due to weak instability. Shower/thunderstorm activity
should taper from W to E later Tue aft/early eve as the surface
wave, trough axis/cold front slides through.
Thereafter, warming temp for Wed thru Fri, possibly Sat as region
lies on southern edge of westerlies, with heights gradually rising
under the influence of SE US ridging and high pressure sliding in
from the West. Temps likely several degrees above seasonable Wed
(upper 70s/lower 80s), and as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal
for Thu/Fri away from south coasts (mid to upper 80s), lower 80s for
the south coast. Have blended in a slight bit of the NBM 50th with
the NBM deterministic, since the NBM deterministic lies below the
10th percentile of the NBM ensemble. Low probability (less than 30%)
of exceeding 95F heat index across NYC/NJ metro an points N&W for
Thu-Sat.
Next feature of note will be a combo of a northern stream shortwave
approaching from Hudson Bay Friday Night into Saturday, and
potential southern plains closed low partially shearing NE towards
the area. This will bring potential for a a weak cold front/pre-
frontal trough to approach as early as late Friday, and subsequent
cold front to approach/linger through Sat Night before pushing
through. Inherently low predictability on these convectively
enhanced shortwave interactions this far out, but low chance pops
are warranted to address this threat.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A cold front will continue to move south and east of the terminals
overnight. The front stalls offshore and to the south during Sunday.
Mainly VFR prevails overnight for the city terminals, however for
eastern most terminals like KISP and KGON sub VFR conditions are
likely at least for a time during the overnight with low stratus and
fog. Low confidence remains in fcst for tonight and into Sunday with
regard to whether low stratus and fog completely gets out of eastern
most terminals. Also pockets of MVFR and IFR likely for KHPN and
KSWF for a portion of the overnight with patchy fog.
Another low confidence fcst Sunday with low clouds residing nearby
along and just off the coast and over the ocean, but most areas
still expected to stay VFR for the first half of the day. Sub VFR
conditions (mainly MVFR) is then expected to return at some point
Sunday afternoon, with low confidence in the timing of the arrival
of sub VFR conditions.
Winds overnight will be NE and generally 5 to 10 kt, with some
outlying terminals down to or just below 5 kt later in the
overnight. The winds then become more E on Sunday at 8 to 13 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible throughout the entire TAF period for changing
flight categories, especially during Sunday afternoon and early
Sunday evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: Mainly sub VFR (MVFR or lower), with a chance of rain.
Monday: Becoming VFR with light E flow.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with shwrs and tstms. Varying winds
with a frontal sys.
Wednesday - Thursday: VFR with W flow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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The dense fog advisory has been allowed to expire as improvement
from NW to SE has taken shape as a old front pushes offshore
and a drier airmass has begun to advect over the waters.
Also, small craft advisories over the ocean waters has been
allowed to expire, but the potential for a period of SCA on the
ocean is expected to develop Sunday night into Monday on
easterly winds. Conditions should gradually fall below SCA
Monday.
Potential for 5 ft seas Tuesday night into Wednesday, mainly in S
swells as a result of a slow moving frontal system. Marginal
nearshore SCA gusts possible during the day Wed in offshore flow
behind cold front. Seas should then fall below SCA conditions late
Wednesday as high pressure builds towards the water, continuing thru
Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic issues expected through Monday night.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms Tuesday may produce a basin wide
1/4 to 1/2" of rain. Localized 1+" amounts possible, particularly
N&W of NYC, presenting a low and localized threat of flash flooding
on Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A High Risk for Rip Currents continues through Sunday evening for
all locations along the oceanfront.
SE swells remain at 3-4 ft on Sunday, mixed with a long period
SE background swell and a building 2 to 3 ft E wind wave. This
should maintain a moderate to high risk of rips with a west to
east sweep of 3 to 4 ft, occasionally 5 ft breaking surf. An E
to W longshore current will likely become favored in the
afternoon.
A moderate to possibly high rip risk likely on Monday with 3-4
ft ESE wind waves building, and a background of 1-2 ft SE/S
swells. E to W longshore current would be favored.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...20/NV
NEAR TERM...JE/20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...20/NV
HYDROLOGY...20/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...