799
FXUS61 KOKX 091141
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
741 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front slowly lifts towards the area today and pushes across
the area tonight, followed by a slow cold front passage Tuesday
afternoon into night. High pressure then builds in on Wednesday
and remains near the region through early Friday. Another frontal
system may affect the region late Friday and lingers into the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A warm front pushes north through the Mid-Atlantic today and is
progged to be at our doorstep near sundown. 500mb shortwave lift
passes through this morning, followed by 850-700mb shortwave lift
this afternoon, but with more shallow moisture. So while there will
be chance of showers throughout the day, any shower activity becomes
generally less likely and lighter in intensity this afternoon. The
cloud cover and an onshore flow will keep high temperatures below
normal, ending up generally around 70 across the area.
The warm front slowly lifts through the area tonight, meanwhile a
cold front approaches from the west. The warm front will be working
with shallow moisture, so any rainfall from this should be very
light or drizzle. Moisture then deepens west to east late at night
as the cold front nears. Areas mainly west of the Hudson could get
some rainfall from this towards sunrise. PVA and elevated
instability could also lead to a thunderstorm for this area as
well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will move slowly east across the forecast area
through Tuesday evening and may even dissipate over the eastern
zones late at night. A few rounds of shortwave lift pass through,
and synoptic lift increases further in the afternoon with the right
rear quadrant of an upper jet streak entering the region.
Showers likely across the entire area during the day, with chances
lowering generally from mid-afternoon on. Instability remains
primarily elevated and probably not enough for severe thunderstorm
activity. As for hydrologic impacts, all of the ingredients for
improving chances of heavy downpours don`t really come together. The
greater instability will be generally over western zones and the
higher PWATs will be over the eastern zones, and influence from the
the approaching jet streak would appear to be mitigated by its late
arrival. PWATs will be exceeding climatology nevertheless, and the
steering flow doesn`t look particularly strong with some backbuilding
cell potential, so can`t completely rule out isolated instances of
flash flooding. WPC continues to have the entire area under a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall. Impacts are likely limited to
minor urbanized/poor drainage and small stream flooding.
Weak high pressure then builds in for Wednesday with the flow aloft
slightly cyclonic to zonal. Looks like a mostly sunny day ahead with
a light westerly wind in the morning increasing from the SW in the
afternoon. This should allow most of the area to have high
temperatures in the 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stuck fairly close to the NBM/previous forecast though the long term
period.
The long term starts off with high pressure over the region which
remains in place through at least early Friday. Expect the warm
temperatures peaking on Thursday with highs in the 80s and lower
90s.
By Friday into next weekend, a faster moving upper low pivots
through eastern Canada, bringing another round of precipitation
chances to the area through next weekend, along with cooler
temperatures. Expect a chance of rain each day. Highs over the
weekend will be in the upper 60s and 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal boundary stalled south of the area will slowly approach
today.
MVFR conditions continue to gradually fall to IFR conditions.
IFR Conditions should then prevail for most of the day, however
can not rule out some improvements to MVFR conditions today.
Tonight, conditions may fall below IFR in stratus/fog.
Improvement will be slow on Tuesday morning.
Easterly winds will continue today at around 07-12kt. Winds become
light once again tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible throughout the entire TAF period for changing
flight categories.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with shwrs and tstms. Varying
winds with a frontal sys.
Wednesday - Thursday: VFR with W flow.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
All waters remain below advisory thresholds for at least the next
few days. Waves on the ocean likely remain mostly 3-4 feet through
at least Tuesday morning with a weakening onshore flow. Guidance has
trended lower regarding wave heights/swell for Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday, so it looks likely that seas prevail below 5 ft
through this time.
Conditions will then remain below SCA levels through Friday.
Small craft conditions will be possible over the weekend as
another frontal system moves across the area waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms during Tuesday look to produce a widespread 0.50" to
1" of rain. Localized amounts of 1+" are possible. See the short
term discussion above for potential impacts.
No significant hydrologic issues are expected Wednesday through
Sunday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip currents is expected today. The moderate risk
continues for Tuesday, although it could potentially be high for the
ocean beaches of eastern Suffolk County.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...