609
FXUS61 KOKX 111134
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
734 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains south and west of the region today
through tonight. A cold front approaches Thursday and moves
across Thursday night into early Friday. This front then stalls
out south of the area thereafter into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast is mainly on track. Visibilities still vary
considerably across different parts of the region. Visibilities
have recently improved so feel that most if not all the fog
should be burnt off by 9AM.
Patchy dense fog early is expected to dissipate with diurnal
heating and more northerly flow this morning. Have special
weather statement to address this until 9AM EDT this morning.
Can see this fog development with the night fog satellite
product with enhanced development along the river valleys.
Mid level trough axis moves east of the area early today. Mid
level heights then start slowly increasing with ridging. At the
surface, behind a weak cold front, weak enough pressure gradient
is keeping winds very light. Weak high pressure builds in today
but its center stays well south and west of the region.
Eventually a more northerly flow develops but is expected to not
increase much. As a result, daytime sea breeze circulations are
expected to develop. More sun today and with 850mb temperatures
increasing, warmer surface temperatures are expected as well.
Used NBM and MAV/MET blend, with a range of high temperatures
from the upper 70s to mid 80s for a majority of the region.
Also, for some time late this afternoon into early this evening
for western locations around NYC and points north and west, haze
is expected in the sky. This is from upstream smoke aloft which
has been forecast with the HRRR to traverse western sections of
the region late this afternoon into early this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mid levels exhibit a slow ridging trend tonight through Thursday
night and then become nearly steady with more zonal flow Friday
through Friday night. At the surface, weak high pressure tonight
eventually gives way to an approaching cold front Thursday. This
cold front moves across Thursday night. The front then becomes
stalled out south of the region Friday into Friday night.
Limited moisture with the cold front and some elevated
instability in the low levels could present a possible shower or
thunderstorm with otherwise mainly dry conditions continuing
Thursday into Thursday night. POPs are only slight chance.
Ahead of the cold front Thursday, a warmer day is expected with
the trends higher at 850mb compared to the previous day. More
low level SW flow will help establish more warm air advection.
Forecast high temperatures once again used a blend of NBM and
MAV and MET, ranging from the lower 80s to around 90 for much of
the local area. Forecast dewpoints in the lower 60s for areas
along the coast and upper 50s farther inland. Resulting max
apparent temperature or max heat indices are forecast to reach
lower 90s (just nearly a degree or so higher than the actual
temperature) in parts of Northeast NJ. Northeast NJ expected to
be the warmest spot in the forecast region.
Followed NBM pretty closely for the forecast Thursday night
through Friday night. A residual shower or thunderstorm possible
Thursday night during the first half of the night. Dry
conditions then return thereafter through early Friday with the
cold front exiting south of the region. MAV/MET/NBM followed for
lows Thursday night, ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s.
Weather becomes more unsettled Friday afternoon through Friday
night as the cold front stalls out south of the region.
Probability of showers increases towards the end of the short
term forecast period, mainly for Friday night.
With clouds increasing Friday into Friday night and surface flow
becoming more easterly, a cooler maritime airmass infiltrates
the region. Forecast highs more in the 70s on Friday with some
lower 80s values within NYC and Northeast NJ. Forecast lows
Friday night cooler trend, ranging from the upper 50s to mid
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front is forecast to become nearly stationary to the south of
the area, through the Mid Atlantic region and the Delmarva, from
Saturday into early next week. The front, along with waves of low
pressure that move along it, may set off some showers. Some
thunderstorms are possible Saturday as the front sinks south of the
region. The front will be the focus for lift to aid in thunderstorm
development. Thereafter, with a slightly more stable air mass in
place on the other side of the frontal boundary, so just showers are
expected. While Saturday looks to be the best chance for
precipitation and there is a slight chance to chance POPs in the
forecast from Sunday through Tuesday, a washout or all day rain event
is not expected during this time frame.
Aloft, zonal flow on Saturday transitions to a low amplitude trough
on Sunday that moves through New England. An approaching upper level
ridge from the west flattens to become more zonal for the beginning
of next week.
Placement of the frontal boundary will affect temperatures, mainly
Saturday through the end of the forecast and is noted with the
uncertainty in highs and lows seen in the spread of possibilities
with the NBM guidance. As a result of the uncertainty, and no
targets of opportunity, have stayed close to the NBM deterministic
guidance.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure builds into the area today.
VFR through the TAF period. Any lingering fog across outlying
terminals should burn off quickly this morning.
Winds will be light W to NW to light and variable early. A W to
WSW flow develops later this morning, with gusts up to 20 kt
possible during the afternoon and winds becoming SW. Gusts may
be more occasional before ending by late afternoon. Sea breezes
are expected at KJFK, KISP, KBDR, and KGON.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A sea breeze is expected to move into KJFK early this afternoon, and
may make it to KLGA by late afternoon. Afternoon gusts at KEWR,
KTEB, and KLGA may be more occasional.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: VFR.
Friday: VFR. MVFR possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and into the evening.
Saturday - Sunday: MVFR cigs or lower likely with chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Marine dense fog for Eastern LI Sound east of the Connecticut
and eastern ocean between Moriches and Montauk with advisory out
until 9AM this morning.
SCA conditions forecast for portions of the ocean heading into
this morning. Otherwise, mainly below SCA conditions expected
through the short term forecast through Friday night with the
pressure gradient remaining relatively weak.
With a weak pressure gradient force expected across the forecast
waters, as a frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of the ocean
waters, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
from Saturday through Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next Tuesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk for rip current development remains through
this evening at ocean beaches.
The moderate risk for rip current development continues Thursday
at ocean beaches.
The main driving influence will be southwest flow near 5 to 10
kts as well as lingering onshore swell of around 4 ft on average
and period of 7-8 seconds.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ332-350.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...