559
FXUS61 KOKX 122356
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
756 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front slowly pushes through this Thursday evening and
stalls just south of the area on Friday. A weak low pushes along
the boundary late Friday night and pushes through early on
Saturday. High pressure off the New England coast tries to build
towards the area Sunday into Monday as waves of low pressure
move along the stalled boundary to our south. The high weakens
on Tuesday allowing the front to begin returning northward
through next Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front was moving across the region front the north at 23Z
Thursday, and will continue to sag to the south through this
Thursday evening. With showers/thunderstorms very isolated, and
the few over Eastern Pennsylvania, and Western New Jersey will
be moving into an increasingly more stable airmass as surface
and mix layer CAPE will be decreasing through the early evening.
Adjusted the probabilities based on this, keeping slight chance
probs to the west, and lowering/removing slight chance probs
farther to the east, and then removing the slight chances for
the overnight as the front will be to the south of the region.
Forecast soundings continue to show a mid level cap and overall
the forcing with the front is very weak. If a storm does
develop, it would likely contain strong gusty winds with solid
DCAPE values, along with the potential for hail. Kept a 15
percent probability for the western portion of the area during
the early evening. Temperatures overnight will average close
to or just above the seasonal norms with mainly 60s for lows.
Questions remain abound for the day Friday. The cold front
which is progged to move through Thursday night is not progged
to get very far to the south and is expected to stall nearby,
perhaps just to the immediate south. At the same time high
pressure attempts to ridge down, at least temporary from the
northwest before the next impulse attempts to approach from the
west towards late in the day and evening. Also the upper level
jet gets further downstream to the northeast as the region
should get in-between any mid and upper level support / forcing
mechanisms. Low end chance to slight chance PoPs appear prudent
for the day Friday, although the consensus of NWP guidance keeps
the region dry much of the day. More of an onshore flow is
expected into Friday afternoon with some uncertainty as to how
much the onshore flow can penetrate into western most areas.
With some cloud cover and more of an onshore flow temperatures
should be cooler with mainly upper half of the 70s to lower 80s
for daytime highs.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During Friday night with the frontal boundary stalled nearby and
perhaps just south of the area expect disturbances to more or less
ride along the boundary. Occasional showers looks to take place
during Friday night. The column is forecast to saturate further into
later in the overnight and into early Saturday morning. Instability
appears to be limited Friday night into Saturday, thus will carry
high end chance to low end likely PoPs for weather across the region
late Friday night into Saturday morning. During the day Saturday it
doesn`t appear to be a complete washout, as after the disturbance
from the morning gets through most NWP guidance suggests a relative
break or pause in any shower activity. Thus, have included low end
chance PoPs Saturday afternoon. Suffice it to say that the start of
the weekend will feature more in the way of clouds, with a period or
two of unsettled weather with the potential for showers. With the
onshore flow progged to continue on Saturday with a E-ENE wind in
the boundary layer expect temperatures to average below normal. Max
temperatures will likely only reach the upper 60s to perhaps some
lower and middle lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes were made to the long term Saturday night
through next Thursday.
Key Points:
*While there is a chance for showers through the period, it will
not be a complete washout.
*Difficult to time waves of low pressure and moisture interactions
with the stalled boundary to our south will ultimately determine
when/if showers occur across parts of the area Saturday night
through early next week.
*The stalled boundary starts retreated northward later Tuesday
through Thursday continuing the chance for showers, possibly a
thunderstorm.
*Temperatures will average below normal Sunday and Monday then
return to more seasonably warm levels Tuesday with potential of
warmer than normal conditions mid to late week.
The region will lie on the southern periphery of the westerlies for
much of the long term period with ridging holding across the
southern US. A frontal boundary will remain stalled across the
Middle Atlantic. The main forecast challenge Saturday night through
Monday will be from difficult to time waves of low pressure on the
stalled front as well as an subtle shortwaves in the middle level
flow. Surface ridging will also try to take hold over the area,
which may limit how much shower activity can develop. Model trends
have been leaning in this direction, especially for Sunday into
Monday with increasing chances for mostly dry conditions. The upper
ridging may start building along the eastern seaboard Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the boundary to lift back to the north as a warm
front. A more organized shortwave may then start approaching towards
next Thursday which may also bring in another cold front, but this
remains uncertain given it is a week out.
Rainfall amounts and any impacts appear limited at this time with
any greater chance of convection potentially occurring mid week as
conditions warm up and instability starts increasing. There will
likely be adjustments to PoPs and timing of any potential convection
once the mesoscale environment becomes better resolved.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front slowly passes through early this evening, and
stalls south of the terminals overnight and into Friday.
VFR. Only an isolated shower/thunderstorm at most will be
possible until 01-02z. A slight chance of showers returns early
Friday morning, mainly just south of the area, along the
stalled frontal boundary.
Northwest winds early this evening become north this evening and
diminish, with most terminals becoming light and variable. A
light east to southeast flow develops Friday morning.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Showers/tstms may be only isolated at most until 02Z, and
probably affects KEWR only.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday evening: VFR.
Friday overnight-Saturday: MVFR/IFR with chance of showers.
Sunday: MVFR with showers possible.
Monday: Chance of showers and MVFR/IFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions are anticipated for all waters through the
first half of the weekend. Ocean seas generally hold at 2 to 3 ft
with a relaxed pressure gradient and a light onshore flow. Winds
and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels from Saturday
night through next Tuesday with a weak pressure gradient in place.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk is low on Friday with a light easterly
flow and limited swell. There is a moderate rip current risk on
Saturday with increasing easterly flow and building seas 3 to 4
ft.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DS
NEAR TERM...JE/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...