949
FXUS61 KOKX 130906
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
506 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front stalls just south of the waters on today. A weak low
rides along the boundary late tonight and tracks south and east
of Long Island early on Saturday. High pressure off the New
England coast tries to build towards the area Sunday. Next week
starts out with high pressure southeast of Nova Scotia and a
stalled front south of the region. Multiple waves of low
pressure move along the front and near the area through Tuesday
night. Eventually a stronger low pressure system develops and
allows for a warm front to lift north of the region Wednesday
with an associated cold front approaching towards the end of
next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Cold front south of the area will continue to move south today.
However, a slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms
are possible today, mainly for southern and western portions of
the forecast area as they form along the cold frontal boundary
aloft. This can be seen in recent radar imagery, where showers
have been developing along a boundary that crossed eastern Long
Island and the sound earlier last night. Despite an easterly
flow developing, have mentioned isolated thunder with a few
hundred J/kg of elevated CAPE noted in some of the forecast
sounding across western Long Island, NYC, and northeast NJ this
morning into the afternoon. Lower Hudson Valley looks to be in
stable enough environment where just showers are expected there.
There is a fair amount of uncertainty with exactly where
precipitation occurs this morning into the afternoon given
various CAMs solutions, but it seems the most likely areas are
the aforementioned areas, due to their proximity to the surface
cold front, but probably more importantly the front aloft.
Temperatures will be closer to normal today, with highs ranging
from the middle 70s to around 80.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Low pressure is expected to form along the frontal boundary
tonight over the mid-Atlantic states and track northeast along
the boundary into Saturday morning, being located somewhere
south of Long Island by late morning Saturday into Saturday
afternoon. A period of moderate to briefly heavy rain is
possible during this time frame, especially as PWAT values
increase to 1.50" to 2.00". The ECMWF and NAM are the most
bullish on rainfall, with over an inch expected during this 12
hour period, mainly across Long Island. Think that these values
are too high and may be suffering from convective feedback
issues. Tried to come to some sort of consensus among the
models, and have a storm total ranging from a tenth of an inch (southwest
CT) to just over half an inch (NYC and Long Island) from late
tonight through the day Saturday. Localized amounts of inch are
possible given aforementioned PWAT values, but flooding is not
expected at this time. The most likely outcome would be minor
nuisance and poor drainage flooding, mainly for Long Island.
Rain tapers off Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night as
high pressure from southern Canada builds in. Unsettled pattern
continues for Sunday as another area of low pressure forms near
the Ohio river Valley and heads east. As it heads east, the
front edge of the precipitation field may affect western and
souther portions of the forecast area late Sunday into Sunday
night, however precipitation is not expected to be as widespread
as compared to Saturday.
With rain and clouds expected for Saturday and Sunday,
temperatures are expected to run below normal for this time of
year. Highs are not expected to climb out of the 60s. Lows will
be in the 50s to around 60.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Main upper level jet stays north of the region for the time period
of next week Monday through Thursday night. The main upper level
westerlies get relatively close, not that far north of the region
Wednesday into Wednesday night with a shortwave trough passing north
of the region. The westerlies increase again late in the week when a
stronger shortwave approaches the region.
At the surface, high pressure southeast of Nova Scotia gradually
weakens Monday into Monday night. One wave of low pressure passes
well south of the region along the stalled front Monday into Monday
night. Another wave of low pressure passes south of the area
along the front Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
For Monday through early Wednesday, unsettled weather pattern
remains with chances of showers and cooler than normal temperatures.
Monday is forecast to be well below normal once again as highs only
near 70 are expected for much of the region. Highs forecast on
Tuesday warm up but are still a few degrees below normal, mostly mid
to upper 70s. Surface winds transition from being more easterly
Monday to more southerly Tuesday.
Eventually by mid week, stronger trough in the Central US shifts the
pattern for the local area downstream as a stronger low pressure
system develops. The frontal boundary eventually lifts back north on
Wednesday as a warm front. The warm front eventually lifts north of
the region Wednesday night and then the local area will be fully in
a warm sector Thursday. Meanwhile, an associated cold front will be
approaching from the west.
Increasing SE to S winds Wednesday and SW winds Thursday will
increase low level warm air advection. Temperature continue on their
rising trend Wednesday into Thursday. Dewpoints will be on the rise
as well. Airmass will be getting more warm and humid. Max
temperatures WEdnesday are upper 70s to lower 80s for most locations
and 80s to near 90 for much of the region on Thursday. Those max
temperatures near 90 Thursday are within parts of NYC and Northeast
NJ as well as Lower Hudson Valley with corresponding heat indices
reaching low to mid 90s.
Chances for showers remain Wednesday through Thursday but
thunderstorms will be possible as well with the increasing low level
instability from the greater surface warmth. Some thunderstorms
could be strong especially with the approach of the cold front when
more shear with those greater westerlies could enable even for a few
severe thunderstorms with enough shear and CAPE.
There is uncertainty with model locations and fronts and even more
uncertainty with timing of convection. Therefore exact and refined
time windows for showers and thunderstorms will be difficult to
determine at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A cold front will stall south of the region with an area of low
pressure developing and approaching along it for the TAF period.
VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period. Clouds are
expected to remain mainly broken coverage at mid to high levels.
Clouds lower and thicken tonight with potential for MVFR after 06Z
Sat as showers become more probable. An isolated thunderstorm will
be possible as well but probability of these will remain low.
Winds initially will be variable direction and near or less than 5
kts. Winds become more E to SE during the day and increase to near
10 kts. Winds remain generally easterly and decrease to near 5 to 7
kts towards end of TAF period but will be variable direction for
some terminals outside of NYC.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
An brief isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible today into this
evening. Too much uncertainty with timing and location to put in
TAFs at this time with low confidence.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night: Mainly VFR but MVFR possible with showers becoming
more probable.
Saturday: MVFR to IFR with chance of showers. Occasional NE wind
gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Saturday night: Lowering chances of showers. MVFR to IFR possible.
Sunday: Chance of showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm afternoon
into early evening. MVFR to IFR possible at times. Otherwise VFR.
Monday: Chance of showers. MVFR to IFR possible at times. Otherwise
VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Sub advisory conditions are anticipated for all waters through the
first half of the weekend. Ocean seas generally hold at 2 to 4
ft with a relaxed pressure gradient and a light onshore flow.
Marginal SCA seas are possible for the central and eastern ocean
zones late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
For the long term marine forecast, conditions are forecast to remain
below SCA thresholds on all waters Monday through Tuesday night. The
pressure gradient on average is expected to remain weak allowing for
relatively less wind and thereby less amplitude waves.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
A tenth to just over a half inch of rainfall is expected from
tonight through Saturday. Isolated amounts over an inch are
possible, especially across Long Island. There is the potential
for moderate to briefly heavy rain, but no flooding is expected
at this time. The most likely outcome would be minor nuisance
flooding.
No hydrologic impacts expected Monday and Tuesday. Thunderstorms mid
to late next week will be capable of producing locally heavy
downpours and thereby minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage and
urban areas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk is low on Friday with a light easterly
flow and limited swell. There is a moderate rip current risk on
Saturday with increasing easterly flow and building seas 3 to 4
ft.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...