035
FXUS61 KOKX 140551
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
151 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal wave will pass to the south late tonight into Saturday.
Behind it, high pressure builds in from the northeast Saturday
night into Sunday. Weak high pressure will be in place through
Wednesday, with a warm front lifting north through the area by
Thursday, followed by a cold front Thursday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A confluent flow between the northern and southern branches of
the polar jet will be featured across the Northeast. This will
allow high pressure to build across eastern Canada and into the
Northeast. To the south across the northern Mid Atlantic
states, a frontal wave will move offshore late tonight into
Saturday, passing south of the area. The latter of which will
bring showers areawide tonight and a possible thunderstorm,but
mainly after midnight into Saturday morning. There will be some
elevated instability, but mainly across the southern half of the
forecast area. With PW values approaching 2 inches, any embedded
convection could produce brief heavy rainfall. Otherwise, the
system is rather disjointed and will transition to some light
rain by Saturday afternoon. High pressure and drying conditions
will work in from the north as high pressure builds behind the
departing low.
Expected rainfall amounts late tonight into Saturday will be
between 0.25 and 0.50 inches. Stayed close to an NBM/WPC
consenus. Right now, not buying into some of the higher amounts
shown by the 12Z Canadian and ECMWF. 13Z NBM 50th percentile is
0.3 to 0.4", with the mean a bit higher (skewed toward higher
amounts). However, probability of greater than 0.75" is only
15-25%.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lowers 60s, which is
nearly normal. However. due to the cloud cover, northeast flow,
and rain, highs on Saturday will likely not climb out of the
60s. This is more than 10 degrees below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure noses in from the northeast Saturday night into
Sunday with only a slight chance of light rain during this time.
Model time height cross sections during this time show dry mid
levels with moisture confined to the low levels, mainly below
700mb. In fact, while the forecast remains mostly cloudy during
this time, it could very well remain dry through Father`s Day
and temperatures may be on the upper end of the guidance.
For the time, expect lows in 50s Saturday night and highs in the
60s for Sunday. This is on the cool side.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A relatively zonal upper flow is anticipated through Wednesday night
before it amplifies with a trough axis approaching Thursday night
and passing through on Friday. This leads to weak surface high
pressure over the region with a stalled boundary to our south. This
boundary then becomes a warm front and advances north by Thursday
with weak ridging aloft. A cold front then follows during Thursday
night or possibly on Friday.
Highest chance of rainfall within the long term appears to be with
the cold front passage, but there`s uncertainty surrounding how
probable it will be due to timing differences for the passage among
the global models. A passage during the daytime Friday would
probably bring a higher threat overall with a greater chance of
heavy downpours as instability would be higher during the daytime.
12z LREF leans toward the faster side of the guidance envelope with
the h5 trough axis and attendant cold front. The cold front is
therefore more likely to pass through during Thursday night,
mitigating the potential for severe weather and flooding impacts.
With that said, trends need to be watched so see if the frontal
passage becomes more likely during the daytime on Thursday, or at
the least, a prefrontal trough acting as a focus for convection.
NBM was used for temperatures through the long term period.
Thursday`s high temperatures however may eventually need to be
raised by at least 5 degrees given the progged h8 temperatures, but
with the aforementioned convective uncertainty, have not adjusted
from the NBM at this time. Heat impacts may factor in for some
locations if it ends up being hotter than currently forecast,
particularly away from the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A stationary front remains south of the area, across the Mid
Atlantic region and well south of Long Island. Weak low pressure
moves along the boundary overnight and through the day Saturday.
The front may move farther to the south, with low pressure
exiting, Saturday evening into Saturday night, with high
pressure building into the region from the northeast.
Low to moderate confidence forecast with the timing of flight
category changes into Saturday morning, and for timing of
showers.
VFR through most of the overnight with a chance of showers, and
MVFR conditions late overnight, and toward sunrise. Showers and
IFR conditions become more likely early Saturday morning. There
is a chance that northern terminals remain MVFR. Showers are
expected to become much more widely scattered by 20Z so there
may be some improvements back up to MVFR briefly into the late
afternoon with IFR becoming possible again after 00Z Sunday,
especially near the coast.
E winds less than 10kt overnight, with the winds becoming more
NE Saturday morning, and increasing to 10-14kt. NE winds
continue into Saturday evening around 10kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely overnight into Saturday morning for timing of
changing flight categories.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Late Saturday night: Lowering chances of showers. MVFR to IFR
likely.
Sunday: Chance of showers. MVFR to IFR possible at times. Otherwise
VFR.
Monday: Chance of showers. MVFR to IFR possible at times. Otherwise
VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR.
Wednesday: Mostly VFR, with the chance of a period of sub-VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions are anticipated for all waters through the
first half of the weekend. Ocean seas generally hold at 2 to 4
ft with a relaxed pressure gradient and a light onshore flow.
Marginal SCA seas are possible for the central and eastern ocean
zones late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Sub-advisory conditions should otherwise continue through
Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through early next week.
Next chance for impacts would be Thursday into Thursday night with
any thunderstorms that manage to develop in a moist airmass in
place. There`s high uncertainty this far out in time regarding the
probability, timing and magnitude of any impacts with this.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk is low for the rest of today with a light
easterly flow and limited swell. There is a moderate rip current
risk on Saturday with an east to southeast swell.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET/MW
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...