053
FXUS61 KOKX 151508
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1108 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the northeast today and will
influence the area into the early week. A warm front may move
through Tuesday night, with a wave of low pressure impacting the
area Wednesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Introduced chance PoPs (25 to 30 percent) generally from the City on
south and west. Pockets of light rain are possible at times thru the
remainder of the day, though the bulk of this period remains dry at
any one spot with overcast skies. Elsewhere, can`t rule out a spotty
sprinkle, but coverage looks much more sparse closer to the high to
the north. Previous discussion follows.

A wave of low pressure pulls a frontal boundary farther offshore
today while high pressure noses in from the northeast. Aloft, a
mainly zonal flow is expected.

With high pressure nosing in from the northeast, some drier air
filters in, but eastern CT and eastern LI are the main locations
that will see the advantage of this as far as breaks of sun if they
are to occur. Plenty of moisture will still be around in the low
levels to keep mostly cloudy skies around for northeast NJ, NYC and
western LI. Given this moisture and the potential for very weak lift
(likely from surface to 900mb speed convergence), have reintroduced
PoPs for these areas. Still thinking the CAMs are overdone, but
thinking at least slight chance/chance of light rain. This is not a
washout by any means and much of the day should remain dry. Other
areas likely stay dry with the influence of high pressure.

Stuck with NBM for highs today as it seems to reflect effects from
differences in cloud cover well. The warm spots will likely be in
eastern CT with some low 70s. Elsewhere expect 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Some very slight height rises are expected on Monday with shortwave
ridging aloft. A similar surface pattern to Sunday is expected with
high pressure remaining in place, weakening slightly. Dry conditions
are expected. Went a bit cooler than the NBM as an easterly flow and
some cloud cover will likely keep us from getting out of the upper
60s/lower 70s.

High pressure weakens more on Tuesday and the frontal boundary to
our south starts returning north as a warm front. The front could
move through as Tuesday night. This, and another wave of low
pressure along the front will bring more rain to the area. The
latest NAM and GFS are both hinting at the possibility of a long
and skinny MUCAPE profile with pwat values around 2.25 inches
early Wednesday morning. It is too early for specifics but there
is potential for efficient rainfall with heavy downpours. At
this time the storm motion appears to be around 30 kts. This
trend will need to be monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A low pressure system tracking through southern Canada Wednesday
will bring a warm front through the region by late Wednesday.
A warm and humid airmass will then be in place for Wednesday night
into Thursday. The forecast remains on track with the timing of a
cold front passing through the region Thursday night. Increasing
surface based CAPE, up to 1500 J/kg Thursday, along with increasing
shear, and surface instability will result in thunderstorms, a few
of which could contain briefly heavy rainfall. Precipitable water
values have decreased a little from Saturday`s forecasts, and storms
will be moving rather quickly, which will lessen the impacts for
excessive rainfall and potential hydrologic impacts. After the
passage of the cold front an extended period of dry weather is
expected as ridging increases to the west and moves into the region
Friday night into next weekend. There is only a slight chance of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms across the interior Friday as a weak
surface trough sets up, however, with increasing heights and
subsidence, capping may prevent any development.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A stationary front will remain well to the south of the
terminals, across the Mid Atlantic states through tonight.
Meanwhile, high pressure builds towards the terminals from the
northeast today, and remains through tonight.

Improvement looks to be a bit slower than forecast as the entire
forecast area is MVFR or lower. Pockets of very light rain
moving over or near the NYC terminals, reducing vsbys and even
down to IFR at times at KEWR and KTEB. KGON which was VFR at 12Z
is now back down to MVFR. Confidence is decreasing on a period
VFR in the city later this afternoon. Ceilings may also be a
bit lower than forecast even for MVFR locations. Still expect
KGON to go back to VFR.

NE to E winds around 10 kt, or less, through the TAF period.

    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief IFR possible at KJFK and KLGA, more likely this morning at
KTEB and KEWR.

Confidence decreasing on a period of VFR late this afternoon
into early evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: MVFR, possibly VFR late day at KSWF and KGON.

Tuesday: MVFR, IFR possible. A chance of showers at night.

Wednesday - Thursday: Mostly VFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Still some occasional 5 ft seas across coastal ocean waters
from Sandy Hook to Moriches Inlet. These should largely subside
into the afternoon and a weak pressure gradient results in sub-
SCA conditions through Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Friday winds and seas continue to remain
below SCA levels on the forecast waters. However, with an
increasing southwest flow, ahead of a cold front Thursday, ocean
seas and gusts may briefly approach SCA levels late day into
the early evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend at this
time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Based on latest surf observations, rips may be more pronounced
today. Thus, will upgrade to a moderate rip current risk.
Easterly swells will subside a bit heading into this evening so
the risk could subside some. The main wave component is an
easterly wind wave 3-4 ft at 6-8s. A 1-2ft southeast swell at
7-9s also exists.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...DR/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET/DW
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...