089
FXUS61 KOKX 151945
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
345 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure shifts off the New England coast while a stationary
front remains draped to the south over the Mid Atlantic early this
week. A warm front moves through during Wednesday, followed by a
cold front on Thursday. High pressure will then be in control
Friday through the upcoming weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure remains off to the north and east tonight as a
weak area of low pressure over the Ohio River Valley slides east
along a quasi stationary front over the southern Mid Atlantic.
Pesky area of light rain has plagued much of NYC, parts of NE NJ,
and western LI today, but steadiest activity will continue to
diminish and exit as axis shifts south into early evening. QPF
is light where precip is occurring, a couple hundredths on the
high side.
Drier air has tried to work in from the north and east, but has
struggled to penetrate the region. Saturated low levels below 700 mb
will maintain plenty in the way of cloud cover, and very weak
convergence could spur additional pockets of drizzle or light rain
into this evening and tonight, but coverage likely much more
isolated. Closer to the high off to the north, drier conditions over
much of southern CT and eastern LI, but cloud cover likely remains
at least broken through tonight.
Coupled with easterly onshore winds, temperatures have been as much
as 20 degrees below normal this afternoon, one of the coolest June
days in several years. Temperatures largely remain steady overnight
along the coast, generally around 60, though parts of the far
interior could slip into the mid 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Flow remains easterly on Monday as the center of high pressure to
the north shifts off into the northwest Atlantic. Subtle height
rises with weak ridging aloft moving overhead.
Similar conditions to the close of the weekend, with cloud cover and
cooler conditions. Lack of significant forcing should mitigate most
precip development, but can`t still can`t rule out spotty light rain
at any point in the period. Weak shortwave energy moving east
thru the Mid Atlantic may instigate higher coverage, mainly to
the south and west over NJ and PA, but this activity could work
in locally. Otherwise, generally remaining overcast over the
south and west, with potential for thinning and maybe even peeks
of sun possible into southeastern CT.
The onshore marine flow and cloud cover will continue to limit
temperatures, though a bit milder than Sunday, still running a
good 10 degrees below normal for mid June, with afternoon highs
topping out around 70 for most, and near 60 overnight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A shortwave will somewhat flatten an h5 ridge over the area on
Tuesday. Plenty of moisture will be available, bringing chances of
showers, but not anticipating thunderstorms as models agree with very
limited to no CAPE. The shower threat increases Tuesday night
through Wednesday with the approach of a warm front and associated
lift, as well as few rounds of shortwave lift. The threat lowers for
Wednesday afternoon with the warm front to the north and shortwave
lift to our east. CAPE ramps up Wednesday afternoon as we`ll be in
the warm sector, but with less mechanical lift and some capping due
to ridging in the wake of the shortwave passage, the thunderstorm
threat would appear to be limited. With that said, the moisture
content will be high Tuesday through Wednesday, so any showers could
produce locally heavy rainfall.
A shortwave then amplifies the h5 flow on Thursday with a trough
axis approaching from the west, eventually passing through on
Friday. An associated cold front is expected to pass through during
Thursday night, but before then, a pre-frontal trough may act as a
focus for convective development in an increasingly unstable air
mass. SBCAPEs could climb to 1500-2500 J/kg away from the coast, and
when combined with shear profiles, organized strong to severe
thunderstorms could be possible. Machine-learning probability models
and SPC`s day 5 convective outlook support this severe thunderstorm
threat. NBM has backed off on overall rain chances from yesterday`s
guidance, but is still showing at least a 40% chance from around the
city to the Lower Hudson Valley and NE NJ. Leaned more toward the
25th percentile NBM for highs on Thursday for most spots as the
cooler deterministic numbers have been trending upward over the past
couple of days. h8 temps progged at around 19C without too much
convective debris should allow for highs in the mid 90s in the
typically warmest spots. This coupled with dewpoints around 70 could
have some heat impacts.
High pressure then builds in for Friday and remains in control
through the weekend. Only a weak cold front may pass through during
Friday night, but without much of consequence. If there`s any chance
of a shower or thunderstorm, it would more likely occur Friday
afternoon with a cold pool aloft and steepening lapse rates. NBM
limits PoPs to a slight chance well NW of the city Friday afternoon.
Heights rise through the weekend, so a warming trend gets underway
with highs ranging from the mid 80s at the coast to lower 90s inland
for Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A weak ridge of high pressure will remain across the area into
Monday, while a stationary front and waves of low pressure along it
remain to the south.
Improvement continues to be slow and have pushed back timing to high
end MVFR 1-2 hours for some locations. Expect a mainly MVFR forecast
for the NYC, KHPN and KISP terminals. To the north, KSWF and the CT
terminals are forecast to see gradual improvement to VFR into this
evening. MVFR likely returns to these locations late tonight into
Monday morning. Occasional VFR is possible elsewhere the first half
of tonight. There is low confidence for a period of IFR overnight.
In addition, patches of light rain and/or sprinkles will be in close
proximity to the NYC terminals. Little to no impact expected.
NE to E winds generally less than 10 kt through the TAF period.
Winds may back more to the E/SE for a time this afternoon into early
this evening.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Brief 3-5SM -RA into early this evening, mainly at KJFK and KEWR.
Chance of IFR late tonight into Monday morning. Low confidence at
this time.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday Afternoon: Mainly MVFR.
Tuesday: MVFR, IFR possible. A chance of showers, mainly at night.
Wednesday: Chance of IFR in the morning, otherwise MVFR with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms. SW G15-20kt.
Friday: VFR. W G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Weak pressure gradient results in conditions remaining below
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria through Monday night.
For Tuesday through Saturday, winds and seas continue to prevail
below SCA levels on the forecast waters. However, ocean seas and
gusts may approach SCA levels late day Thursday into Thursday night
with an increasing southwest flow ahead of a cold front.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Locally heavy downpours will be possible in any thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday as the air mass will have plenty of moisture.
The flash flooding threat will be mitigated by the speed of any
cells and lack of a training signal in addition to the overall
chances of showers and thunderstorms. So while flash flooding is not
anticipated at this time, minor poor drainage flooding will still be
possible both days.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A moderate risk of rip current development remains through the rest
of today into this evening. The risk will once again be moderate for
Monday across the Atlantic shores.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC