100
FXUS61 KOKX 160552
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
152 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts off the New England coast while a stationary
front remains draped to the south over the Mid Atlantic early this
week. A warm front moves through during Wednesday, followed by a
cold front on Thursday night. High pressure will then be in
control Friday through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High pressure remains off to the north and east tonight as a
weak area of low pressure over the Ohio River Valley slides east
along a quasi stationary front over the southern Mid Atlantic.
Area of light rain and sprinkles continues to move across
portions of of NYC, parts of NE NJ, and southwestern LI this
evening. Most places that observe the light rain will just see a
trace, but a few spots could see a hundredth or two.
Saturated low levels below 700 mb will maintain plenty in the
way of cloud cover, and very weak convergence could spur
additional pockets of drizzle or light rain tonight, but
coverage likely much more isolated.
Temperatures largely remain steady overnight along the coast,
generally around 60, though parts of the far interior could slip
into the mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Flow remains easterly on Monday as the center of high pressure to
the north shifts off into the northwest Atlantic. Subtle height
rises with weak ridging aloft moving overhead.
Similar conditions to the close of the weekend, with cloud cover and
cooler conditions. Lack of significant forcing should mitigate most
precip development, but can`t still can`t rule out spotty light rain
at any point in the period. Weak shortwave energy moving east
thru the Mid Atlantic may instigate higher coverage, mainly to
the south and west over NJ and PA, but this activity could work
in locally. Otherwise, generally remaining overcast over the
south and west, with potential for thinning and maybe even peeks
of sun possible into southeastern CT.
The onshore marine flow and cloud cover will continue to limit
temperatures, though a bit milder than Sunday, still running a
good 10 degrees below normal for mid June, with afternoon highs
topping out around 70 for most, and near 60 overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A shortwave will somewhat flatten an h5 ridge over the area on
Tuesday. Plenty of moisture will be available, bringing chances of
showers, but not anticipating thunderstorms as models agree with very
limited to no CAPE. The shower threat increases Tuesday night
through Wednesday with the approach of a warm front and associated
lift, as well as few rounds of shortwave lift. The threat lowers for
Wednesday afternoon with the warm front to the north and shortwave
lift to our east. CAPE ramps up Wednesday afternoon as we`ll be in
the warm sector, but with less mechanical lift and some capping due
to ridging in the wake of the shortwave passage, the thunderstorm
threat would appear to be limited. With that said, the moisture
content will be high Tuesday through Wednesday, so any showers could
produce locally heavy rainfall.
A shortwave then amplifies the h5 flow on Thursday with a trough
axis approaching from the west, eventually passing through on
Friday. An associated cold front is expected to pass through during
Thursday night, but before then, a pre-frontal trough may act as a
focus for convective development in an increasingly unstable air
mass. SBCAPEs could climb to 1500-2500 J/kg away from the coast, and
when combined with shear profiles, organized strong to severe
thunderstorms could be possible. Machine-learning probability models
and SPC`s day 5 convective outlook support this severe thunderstorm
threat. NBM has backed off on overall rain chances from yesterday`s
guidance, but is still showing at least a 40% chance from around the
city to the Lower Hudson Valley and NE NJ. Leaned more toward the
25th percentile NBM for highs on Thursday for most spots as the
cooler deterministic numbers have been trending upward over the past
couple of days. h8 temps progged at around 19C without too much
convective debris should allow for highs in the mid 90s in the
typically warmest spots. This coupled with dewpoints around 70 could
have some heat impacts.
High pressure then builds in for Friday and remains in control
through the weekend. Only a weak cold front may pass through during
Friday night, but without much of consequence. If there`s any chance
of a shower or thunderstorm, it would more likely occur Friday
afternoon with a cold pool aloft and steepening lapse rates. NBM
limits PoPs to a slight chance well NW of the city Friday afternoon.
Heights rise through the weekend, so a warming trend gets underway
with highs ranging from the mid 80s at the coast to lower 90s inland
for Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak ridge of high pressure will remain across the terminals
into Monday, while a stationary front and waves of low pressure
along it remain to the south.
Mainly VFR, with areas of MVFR around the NYC metro terminals,
with IFR at KGON. Low confidence forecast through this evening
with the flight categories and timing of changes. Conditions are
expected to lower to MVFR toward morning, and remain MVFR
through Monday. Little improvement is expected, with perhaps a
brief period of VFR Monday morning. Then conditions likely lower
to IFR Monday evening. Periods of light rain and drizzle will
continue along the coast through the overnight.
Light NE to E winds, generally less then 10kt continue through
the forecast period. Winds may back more to the ESE for a time
Monday afternoon, especially near the coast.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence with timing and flight categories through this
evening.
Low chance for IFR ceilings early Monday morning. Amendments
likely for flight category changes through Monday evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Late Monday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible.
Tuesday: MVFR-IFR possible. A chance of showers, mainly at
night.
Wednesday: Chance of IFR in the morning, otherwise MVFR to VFR
in the afternoon with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms. SW G15-20kt.
Friday: VFR. W G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Weak pressure gradient results in conditions remaining below
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria through Monday night.
For Tuesday through Saturday, winds and seas continue to prevail
below SCA levels on the forecast waters. However, ocean seas and
gusts may approach SCA levels late day Thursday into Thursday night
with an increasing southwest flow ahead of a cold front.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Locally heavy downpours will be possible in any thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday as the air mass will have plenty of moisture.
The flash flooding threat will be mitigated by the speed of any
cells and lack of a training signal in addition to the overall
chances of showers and thunderstorms. So while flash flooding is not
anticipated at this time, minor poor drainage flooding will still be
possible both days.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk is moderate both Monday and Tuesday at
Atlantic ocean beaches due to E flow, 3-4 ft seas at 7-8s.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR/DS
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...