288
FXUS61 KOKX 191617
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1217 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front approaches this afternoon and moves across the
region tonight. High pressure builds Friday followed by a weak
low pressure trough on Saturday. and into the weekend. Bermuda
high pressure will then settle just south of the region for the
first half of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Key Messages...
* Hot and Humid conditions this afternoon.
* Threat for severe thunderstorms between 2 and 10 pm
Shortwave trough approaches in late afternoon, encountering a
moderately unstable and deeply sheared environment. Already
seeing an extensive cumulus field developing across NYC metro,
NE NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley. A few weak cells are already
beginning to develop. The environment is becoming increasingly
unstable with MLCAPEs 1000-1500 J/kg and MLCIN decreasing.
MLCAPE should continue increasing this afternoon. The convection
should begin to organize this afternoon into one or two lines
segments. Scattered severe storms are possible with SPC
continuing with the enhanced risk west of the Hudson River and
slight east into the NYC metro, west/central LI, and much of
Southern CT. The main threat will be from damaging wind gusts,
but an isolated tornado and hail threat exists.
Farther east across eastern LI and southeastern CT, expectation
is that storms should gradually weaken as they move east as they
encounter a more stable environment.
Any thunderstorm may produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning
along with locally heavy rainfall. The mid level flow is fast
enough to preclude any significant flood threat, but minor
urban/poor drainage flooding is a possibility with a localized
flash flood threat in more urban areas.
Convection diminishes with loss of heating this evening and
especially after sunset. A few lingering showers/storms or
lingering stratiform rain could persist a few hours after
sunset.
Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s near the coast and
upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere. Heat indices peak 90-95 most
spots with a few areas in the upper 90s.
The cold front passes across the area tonight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Dry and still very warm but less humid wx expected for Fri,
with gusty W-NW winds possibly shifting SW along the coast via
some sea breeze influence. An approaching shortwave trough may
bring some showers and possibly a tstm on Sat. Temps will be
warmer on Sat, with highs reaching the lower 90s in NE NJ and
rising well into the 80s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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*HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK*
No significant changes for the long term period so the NBM was
generally followed.
Gradual height rises are expected to take place for the most part
beginning into the weekend. Much of the NWP global guidance is
suggestive of a shortwave feature which attempts to ride and break
through the northern portion of the building ridge Saturday night
and into early Sunday. This will be a transient feature as questions
remain as to how this feature will track and whether its effects
will be mainly north of the CWA towards the middle of the upcoming
weekend. For now have covered this feature with slight chance to low
end chance PoPs. In any event, the turn to a hot and humid regime
looks likely into early next week as higher heights and thicknesses
build across the region. The warm up is expected to begin to build
by late Sunday, especially for western and southwestern most areas.
Hot and humid conditions thus are likely to prevail Monday through
Wednesday with primarily dry weather as any shower / t-storm
activity is likely to remain west and northwest of the region. At
this time it appears that a good portion of the region will
experience the first heat wave of the season, with less certainty
further east. Regardless, temperatures will average well above
normal into next week. Towards the tail end of the period (say mid
to late week) if the ridge break downs enough, the chance of
diurnally driven convection would increase and could introduce some
chance of late day and early evening showers and t-storms.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12z TAF Update...
Main issue is the areas of dense fog/low clouds which will burn off
in most locations by lunch time with most locations improving to
VFR. Then the concern shifts to the scattered thunderstorm threat
after 18z. This activity will be hit or miss...but a few of the
storms may become strong to severe. This may result in brief IFR to
even LIFR conditions under any storm.
SW winds may gust to 25 knots at times this afternoon shifting to
the west later tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Main concern revolves around areas of fog/low clouds that should be
burning off through lunchtime. Then we will be watching for
scattered thunderstorms after 18z into the evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday through Monday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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Near shore gusts could reach 25 kt this afternoon with an SCA
issued for all waters. SW flow increasing to 15-20 kt should
however build ocean seas to 5-6 ft mainly E of Fire Island
Inlet beginning this evening and lasting into Fri afternoon or
evening. A few gusts to 25 kt may also be possible late tonight
into Fri morning for NY Harbor and the nearby ocean waters.
Winds and waves are expected to fall below Small Craft Advisory
criteria Friday afternoon and continue through early next week.
Ocean seas should settle in around 2 ft, occasionally up to 3 ft
during the weekend and into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Once again a marginal risk of flash flooding (around 5% probability)
this afternoon and evening, with scattered locally heavy
downpours and thunderstorms late this afternoon into the
evening. The quicker storm motion will limit the flash flood
threat to any localized areas of training.
There are currently no hydrologic concerns Friday through early
next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A moderate rip current risk this morning should increase to a
high risk later today for the NYC and Nassau ocean beaches as
S-SW onshore flow increases.
A high risk expected for all ocean beaches on Fri, on a
lingering 5-6 ft buoy wave height on a S-SE 7-second wave
period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007-
009>011.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-355.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for
ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ353.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MW
NEAR TERM...BG/DS
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BG/DS/MW
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...