okx-afd on 2025-06-24

189
FXUS61 KOKX 241956
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
356 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure stays in place tonight into a part of tomorrow. Then,
a cold front sags south tomorrow evening through tomorrow night.
This frontal boundary remains south of the region Thursday through
Friday night. The front then moves back north as a warm front Friday
night into the weekend. The front will move farther north into
Monday. A cold front approaches on Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --We saw record-breaking heat today with many climate sites breaking
their daily and monthly high temperature records. With the sea
breeze coming in, many sites will soon drop below the `extreme`
heat criteria, but strong warmth will continue into tonight.
Overnight lows will remain in the low-80s in heavily urbanized
areas around the NYC metro. Outlying areas will only drop into
the mid/upper-70s. As a result, a Heat Advisory will be carried
over for the entire area through tonight after the current
warnings and advisories expire at 8pm.

Its also worth noting, several record maximum low temperatures for
June 24 are expected to be broken, as well, tonight. These records
are for the midnight to midnight period, June 24.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --A Heat Advisory is in place through Wednesday evening. Much of the
day will remain under light W/NW flow. Dewpoints may be a
little lower than what we achieved this afternoon, but not too
far off. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to
upper-90s depending on locations. The heat index will mainly be
102 to 98 across the area with some eastern coastal locations
only reaching around 95. Regardless, the heat risk continues
through much of Wednesday.

Cloud cover increases in the evening and overnight hours with winds
turning more NE late Wednesday night in response to an approaching
cold front from the north. Given the ample daytime heating and
dewpoints in the upper-60s to low-70s in the evening, a few
isolated thunderstorms could push in in the evening and early
at night Wednesday in response to the approaching frontal
boundary and lift it provides. Coverage will be low, but any
thunderstorms that do occur could bring brief downpours and
gusty winds. SPC has gone with a marginal (1/5) risk for severe
weather. 12Z CAMs have small pockets of SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg.
Given weak shear, any thunderstorms that meet severe weather
criteria would mainly be for winds and less so for hail or
tornado risk.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --The mid level heights do not change significantly during the long
term period from Thursday through early next week. A quasi-zonal
flow remains across the region in the mid levels.

At the surface, a frontal boundary will remain south of the region
Thursday through Friday night. Weak low pressure will be along the
front and high pressure will be across Northern New England into the
Canadian Maritimes. The pressure gradient will establish an easterly
flow across the region. A relatively cooler maritime airmass will
encompass the local area. Chances for showers with some possible
occasional thunderstorms are in the forecast.

For the weekend, the front moves back north as a warm front. It
approaches the area Saturday and then slows down within the area.
The front is expected to remain weak and eventually push north of
the area towards the end of the weekend and into Monday next week.
Variable wind flow Saturday eventually becomes more southerly and
stays southerly for the rest of the weekend and into early next week.
A cold front approaches from the west next Tuesday. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast this weekend into
early next week.

The airmass is expected to transition from a cooler maritime airmass
to a more typical seasonal airmass this weekend and actually back to
above normal going into early next week regarding the overall
temperature.

Dewpoints trend from upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday and Friday to
more within mid 60s to near 70 this weekend into early next week.
Max temperatures 70s Thursday and Friday in the forecast trend
warmer thereafter. High temperature get more into the 80s with some
locations potentially reaching lower 90s for early next week. Heat
indices once again could be getting into the mid 90s for some
locations next Monday and Tuesday.

Temperatures forecast mostly from the NBM with more MOS weighed in
for Thursday and this weekend, regarding the high temperatures.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A trof passes tngt, followed by a back door cold front late Wed.

VFR thru the TAF period.

Opposing flow at the terminals thru this eve with NW flow inland and
sea breeze flow just onshore. This will cause some variability in
wind direction thru at least 00Z. Mainly S-SW flow at the coasts,
with W-NW interior. Light winds primarily NW direction tngt behind
the trof, then variability again Wed with weakening winds aloft and
sea breezes developing. Went with a sea breeze JFK and NW flow
elsewhere for the metros.

Chance of isold-sct tstms aft 18Z Wed. Right now the prob was too
low to include in the TAFs based on the latest modeling, but this
could change with even subtle changes in the modeled setup.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

For JFK: Significant variability in wind direction possible thru 00Z
due to proximity of the sea breeze boundary.

For LGA/EWR/TEB: Some variability in wind direction possible thru
00Z due to proximity of the sea breeze.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Rest of Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
late day and night. Winds becoming NE Wed ngt.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible, mainly in showers, possibly a
thunderstorm. E-ENE flow up to 20kt.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers, possibly a
thunderstorm. E flow up to 20 kt.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers, possibly a
thunderstorm.

Sunday: Improvement to VFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --With the absence of a steep pressure gradient conditions on the
waters are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds now through
the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --With the recent humid airmass in place, higher PWATs within the
area near 2 inches Thursday will allow for heavy downpours with
showers and thunderstorms. Marginal flood threat exists but
would expect this to be mostly minor nuisance, particularly in
those low-lying, poor drainage and urban areas.-- End Changed Discussion --

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --Steven surge guidance has trended higher for total water level with
potentially some moderate coastal flooding possible for Thursday
night high tide cycles within South Shore Bays. However, recent
observations have been a little under what Stevens has predicted.

Therefore, still expecting the coastal flooding to remain minor with
the nighttime high tide cycles. More isolated minor coastal flooding
Wednesday night with potentially more widespread minor coastal
flooding Thursday night with localized moderate coastal flooding
possible.

Previous discussion follows.

There is the potential for minor coastal flooding during the
nighttime high tide cycles this week. This is due to high
astronomical tides associated with a new moon on June 25. There is
little wind forcing at this time to produce much surge.

Shoreline areas that could have see minor coastal flooding around
the times of high tide include the South Shore Bays, western LI
Sound, and portions of the Lower NY Harbor. Inundation of less than
half a foot may be possible here.

For Wednesday night through Thursday night, winds become more
easterly, allowing for greater piling up of water. Surge model
guidance indicates a greater surge potentially here with more sites
exceeding minor coastal flood benchmarks. Thursday night looks like
the better chance for an advisory level event.

There remains a moderate risk of rip currents along all ocean
beaches today with greater onshore flow around 10 kt and some
lingering onshore long period swell of 2 ft. Similar conditions can
be expected Wednesday, with a moderate risk once again.-- End Changed Discussion --

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --Wednesday`s Record Highs (June 25):
EWR 100 / 1943
BDR 94 / 1952
NYC 99 / 1943, 1952
LGA 99 / 1943, 1952
JFK 98 / 1952
ISP 92 / 2003

June Monthly Record Highs
EWR 103 / 2021
BDR 97 / 2008
NYC 101 / 1934, 1966
LGA 101 / 1952, 2017
JFK 99 / 1949, 1952, 1959, 1964
ISP 96 / 1966, 1994-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
CTZ005>011.
Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for
CTZ005>011.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ006>008-
010>012.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
CTZ009>012.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ012.
NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179.
Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for
NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
078>081-176>179.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ079-081.
NJ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
103>108.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...JM/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...