okx-afd on 2025-06-24

829
FXUS61 KOKX 242336
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
736 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure stays in place tonight into a part of Wednesday.
Then, a cold front sags south Wednesday evening through
Wednesday night. This frontal boundary remains south of the
region Thursday through Friday night. The front then moves back
north as a warm front Friday night into the weekend. The front
will move farther north into Monday. A cold front approaches on
Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Minor adjustments made to temperature and dewpoint grids to
better match observed trends. Cloud coverage slightly increased.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

We saw record-breaking heat today with many climate sites breaking
their daily and monthly high temperature records. With the sea
breeze coming in, many sites will soon drop below the `extreme`
heat criteria, but strong warmth will continue into tonight.
Overnight lows will remain in the low-80s in heavily urbanized
areas around the NYC metro. Outlying areas will only drop into
the mid/upper-70s. As a result, a Heat Advisory will be carried
over for the entire area through tonight after the current
warnings and advisories expire at 8pm.

Its also worth noting, several record maximum low temperatures for
June 24 are expected to be broken, as well, tonight. These records
are for the local standard time midnight to midnight period,
June 24.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A Heat Advisory is in place through Wednesday evening. Much of the
day will remain under light W/NW flow. Dewpoints may be a
little lower than what we achieved this afternoon, but not too
far off. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to
upper-90s depending on locations. The heat index will mainly be
102 to 98 across the area with some eastern coastal locations
only reaching around 95. Regardless, the heat risk continues
through much of Wednesday.

Cloud cover increases in the evening and overnight hours with winds
turning more NE late Wednesday night in response to an approaching
cold front from the north. Given the ample daytime heating and
dewpoints in the upper-60s to low-70s in the evening, a few
isolated thunderstorms could push in in the evening and early
at night Wednesday in response to the approaching frontal
boundary and lift it provides. Coverage will be low, but any
thunderstorms that do occur could bring brief downpours and
gusty winds. SPC has gone with a marginal (1/5) risk for severe
weather. 12Z CAMs have small pockets of SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg.
Given weak shear, any thunderstorms that meet severe weather
criteria would mainly be for winds and less so for hail or
tornado risk.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Overall, heat wave breaks Thursday with much cooler temperatures.
Even cooler temperatures forecast on Friday before temperatures
trend back up for the weekend into early next week. More
unsettled weather pattern takes shapes with more chances of
showers as well as chances for some thunderstorms from time to
time.

The mid level heights do not change significantly during the long
term period from Thursday through early next week. A quasi-zonal
flow remains across the region in the mid levels.

At the surface, a frontal boundary will remain south of the region
Thursday through Friday night. Weak low pressure will be along the
front and high pressure will be across Northern New England into the
Canadian Maritimes. The pressure gradient will establish an easterly
flow across the region. A relatively cooler maritime airmass will
encompass the local area. Chances for showers with some possible
occasional thunderstorms are in the forecast.

For the weekend, the front moves back north as a warm front. It
approaches the area Saturday and then slows down within the area.
The front is expected to remain weak and eventually push north of
the area towards the end of the weekend and into Monday next week.
Variable wind flow Saturday eventually becomes more southerly and
stays southerly for the rest of the weekend and into early next week.
A cold front approaches from the west next Tuesday. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast this weekend into
early next week.

The airmass is expected to transition from a cooler maritime airmass
to a more typical seasonal airmass this weekend and actually back to
above normal going into early next week regarding the overall
temperature.

Dewpoints trend from upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday and Friday to
more within mid 60s to near 70 this weekend into early next week.
Max temperatures 70s Thursday and Friday in the forecast trend
warmer thereafter. High temperature get more into the 80s with some
locations potentially reaching lower 90s for early next week. Heat
indices once again could be getting into the mid 90s for some
locations next Monday and Tuesday.

Temperatures forecast mostly from the NBM with more MOS weighed in
for Thursday and this weekend, regarding the high temperatures.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure remains in control through Wednesday. A back door
cold front moves into the terminals Wednesday evening through
Wednesday night.

VFR thru the TAF period.

Mainly SW flow at the coasts with W-NW flow inland early this
evening. Winds generally becoming light and variable this
evening at most location. Winds will be NW to NNW 10kt or less
Wednesday with occasional afternoon gusts up to 20kt at the NYC
metro terminals, except at KJFK where a sea breeze is likely.

Late day, after 20Z, into the evening, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible. With uncertain timing and location
have not included in the forecast at this time.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of sea breeze at KJFK uncertain Wednesday and may be
later than forecast.

Occasional afternoon WNW gusts up to 20kt possible at KEWR,
KLGA, and KTEB.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Winds becoming NE late Wednesday night.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible, mainly in showers, possibly a
thunderstorm.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers, possibly a
thunderstorm.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers, possibly a
thunderstorm.

Sunday: Improvement to VFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --With the absence of a steep pressure gradient, conditions on
the waters are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds now
through the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
With the recent humid airmass in place, higher PWATs within the
area near 2 inches Thursday will allow for heavy downpours with
showers and thunderstorms. Marginal flood threat exists but
would expect this to be mostly minor nuisance, particularly in
those low-lying, poor drainage and urban areas.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --Steven surge guidance has trended higher for total water level with
potentially some moderate coastal flooding possible for Thursday
night high tide cycles within South Shore Bays. However, recent
observations have been a little under what Stevens has predicted.

Therefore, still expecting the coastal flooding to remain minor with
the nighttime high tide cycles. More isolated minor coastal flooding
Wednesday night with potentially more widespread minor coastal
flooding Thursday night with localized moderate coastal flooding
possible.

Previous discussion follows.

There is the potential for minor coastal flooding during the
nighttime high tide cycles this week. This is due to high
astronomical tides associated with a new moon on June 25. There is
little wind forcing at this time to produce much surge.

Shoreline areas that could have see minor coastal flooding around
the times of high tide include the South Shore Bays, western LI
Sound, and portions of the Lower NY Harbor. Inundation of less than
half a foot may be possible here.

For Wednesday night through Thursday night, winds become more
easterly, allowing for greater piling up of water. Surge model
guidance indicates a greater surge potentially here with more sites
exceeding minor coastal flood benchmarks. Thursday night looks like
the better chance for an advisory level event.

There remains a moderate risk of rip currents along all ocean
beaches today with greater onshore flow around 10 kt and some
lingering onshore long period swell of 2 ft.

Rip current risk forecast for ocean beaches Wednesday is low
with less wave activity expected as winds will be lighter.
However, a moderate rip current risk is forecast for Thursday
along the ocean beaches with more easterly winds and waves
building.-- End Changed Discussion --

.CLIMATE...
Wednesday`s Record Highs (June 25):
EWR 100 / 1943
BDR 94 / 1952
NYC 99 / 1943, 1952
LGA 99 / 1943, 1952
JFK 98 / 1952
ISP 92 / 2003

June Monthly Record Highs
EWR 103 / 2021
BDR 97 / 2008
NYC 101 / 1934, 1966
LGA 101 / 1952, 2017
JFK 99 / 1949, 1952, 1959, 1964
ISP 96 / 1966, 1994

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
CTZ005>011.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005>011.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ006>008-
010>012.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
CTZ009>012.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ012.
NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>075-078-080-
176>179.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
078>081-176>179.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ079-081.
NJ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
103>108.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...JM/BR
NEAR TERM...JM/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...