272
FXUS61 KOKX 251431
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1031 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will remain across the area today, while a
cold front approaches from the north. The cold front will slowly
sag south across the area tonight and into the Mid Atlantic
states through Friday. The front returns north as a warm front
Friday night, meandering nearby into the weekend, before lifting
farther north into Monday. A cold front then approaches
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This will be the last day of the heat wave as a confluent upper
flow across eastern Canada and into the Northeast allows high
pressure to build to the north. This will allow a cold front
to approach from the north today and sag south across the area
tonight. The anomalously warm upper ridge across the area will
gradually be suppressed south during this time, but not before
another potential record breaking day. Highs look to be about 3
to 5 degrees cooler, mainly in the mid to upper 90s`away from
the immediate shoreline. This combined with dew points in the
upper 60s to around 70 will produce heat indices up to around
100. Stayed with the NBM deterministic temperatures, which
trended up a bit. A heat advisory remains in effect for the
entire forecast through 7 pm.
With the weakening upper ridge, cold front dropping in from the
north, and weak impulses at the southern edge of the westerlies,
widely scattered to scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon into this evening. In addition, latest CAMs show
possible convection along the eastern flank of the cold front
which backs in from the NE this evening. Instability will be
greatest across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior NE NJ, but
wind shear is weak and mid level lapse rates are less than 6C.
This should keep the severe weather threat to the southwest. A
chance for primarily showers will continue overnight as weak
impulses ride long the frontal boundary from the west and weak
warm advection continues as cooler maritime air undercuts the
warmer westerlies aloft. Brief heavy downpours will be possible,
especially across the western third of the forecast area where
the instability will be greatest. However, the airmass will
continue to stabilize overnight in a NE/E flow. It will be
noticeably cooler tonight, but still several degrees above
normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Chances of showers will continue during this time as waves of
low pressure and convective complexes track along the stalled
boundary west of the forecast area. The airmass across the
region will be fairly stable during this time due to an easterly
flow. Complexes working in from the Ohio Valley will likely
dissipate with the best chances for rain being to the north and
west of NYC. Rainfall amounts will generally be on the light
side.
Highs in the mid 70s to around 80 on Thursday will fall to the
lower 70s on Friday. The latter is about 10 degrees below
normal. Due to the cloud cover, lows will be near or slightly
below normal in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Stubborn boundary looks to linger nearby this weekend and early next
week, keeping conditions unsettled.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible at times,
particularly Friday night through Saturday night as shortwave passes
north, though it doesn`t appear to be a washout, nor a great severe
concern. Brief high pressure behind the wave could allow a
relatively quiet Sunday, before digging trough across the Upper
Great Lakes slides east, returning the boundary from the south as a
warm front early next week. An attendant cold front looks to follow
by Tuesday, maintaining chances for additional showers and
thunderstorms.
Temperatures start much more seasonable for late June, afternoon
highs on Saturday into the upper 70s and lower 80s, before warming
into the mid to upper 80s early next week. With dew pts progged into
the 60s and low 70s, heat indices could approach mid 90s, especially
Monday and Tuesday next week
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control into this afternoon. A cold
front moves into the terminals this evening through tonight.
VFR thru the TAF period.
NW winds around 10 kt today with occasional afternoon gusts up
to 20 kt at the NYC metro terminals, except at KJFK where a sea
breeze is probable. Winds veer NE late this evening into the
night.
Late day, after 20Z, isolated showers or thunderstorms are
possible, though with uncertain coverage, timing, and location
continue to omit from TAF at this time. Increasing chance for
showers overnight into Thursday, but likewise, coverage and
timing remain highly uncertain.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of sea breeze at KJFK may be off by an hour or two.
Additionally, the sea breeze may pass through then thereafter
shift back south through the terminal and cause winds to shift
back W to NW late this afternoon.
Occasional afternoon WNW gusts up to 20 kt possible at KEWR, KLGA,
and KTEB.
Possible late day or evening showers or thunderstorms, low
confidence in timing or placement.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: MVFR or lower possible, mainly in showers, possibly a
thunderstorm.
Friday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers, possibly a
thunderstorm.
Saturday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers, possibly a
thunderstorm.
Sunday: Improvement to VFR possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With the absence of a steep pressure gradient, conditions on
the waters are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds now
through the weekend. However, a strengthening easterly flow on
the ocean waters will produce gusts up to 20 kt with seas
building to around 4 ft Thursday night into Friday, possibly as
high as 5 ft Friday night east of Moriches Inlet.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts expected during this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is potential for minor coastal flooding during the
nighttime high tide cycles this week with a new moon. Isolated
minor coastal flooding of the most vulnerable areas of the South
Shore Bays and western Long Island Sound possible during high
tide this evening. Potentially more widespread minor coastal
flooding Thursday Friday evenings with easterly flow developing.
A Coastal Flood Statement or Advisory may be needed during this
period.
There is low risk of rip currents today at the ocean beaches
with 1 to 2 ft breakers in the surf zone. However, the risk
increases to moderate on Thursday due to a building easterly
swell and 2 ft breakers in the surf zone.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Wednesday`s Record Highs (June 25):
EWR 100 / 1943
BDR 94 / 1952
NYC 99 / 1943, 1952
LGA 99 / 1943, 1952
JFK 98 / 1952
ISP 92 / 2003
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
AVIATION...JC/DR