129
FXUS61 KOKX 251601
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1201 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A surface trough will remain across the area today, while a cold
front approaches from the north and east. The cold front will
slowly sag south and west through the area tonight and into the
Mid Atlantic region through Friday. The front will return north as
a warm front Friday night, then meander nearby Saturday and
Sunday before lifting farther north into Monday. A cold front
will approach on Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A heat advisory remains in effect through 7 PM. Bumped temps up
slightly, with Newark and JFK both having a shot at reaching
100 again late this afternoon.
This will be the last day of the heat wave as a confluent upper
flow across eastern Canada and into the Northeast allows high
pressure to build to the north. This will allow a cold front
to approach from the north today and sag south across the area
tonight. The anomalously warm upper ridge across the area will
gradually be suppressed south during this time, but not before
another potential record breaking day. High temps look to be
slightly less hot than those of yesterday, mid 90s to near 100
away from the immediate shoreline. This combined with dew
points in the upper 60s to around 70 will produce heat index
values from about 97 to 104.
With the weakening upper ridge, cold front dropping in from the
north, and weak impulses at the southern edge of the westerlies,
widely scattered to scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon into this evening. In addition, CAM`s show
possible convection along the eastern flank of the cold front
which backs in from the NE this evening. Instability will be
greatest across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior NE NJ, but
wind shear is weak and mid level lapse rates are less than 6C.
This should keep the severe weather threat to the southwest.
A chance for showers and isolated tstms will continue overnight
as weak impulses ride long the frontal boundary from the west
and weak warm advection continues as cooler maritime air
undercuts the warmer westerlies aloft. Brief downpours will be
possible late tonight, especially across the NYC metro area and
Long Island where elevated instability will be greatest.
However, the low level air mass will continue to stabilize
overnight in a NE-E flow. It will be noticeably cooler tonight,
but still several degrees above normal, with lows in the upper
60s/lower 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Latest CAM`s show potential for some locally heavy showers and
isolates tstms Thu morning, with the majority of the guidance
suggesting the axis of this rainfall more likely to lie across
the NYC metro area and Long Island as opposed to the lower
Hudson Valley and S CT.
Thereafter, convective complexes working in from the Ohio Valley
will likely dissipate, with the better chances for rain being to
the north and west of NYC. Rainfall amounts will generally be on
the light side.
Highs in the mid 70s to around 80 on Thursday will fall to the
lower 70s on Friday. The latter is about 10 degrees below
normal. Due to the cloud cover, lows will be near or slightly
below normal in the upper 50s to mid 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Stubborn boundary looks to linger nearby this weekend and early next
week, keeping conditions unsettled.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible at times,
particularly Friday night through Saturday night as shortwave passes
north, though it doesn`t appear to be a washout, nor a great severe
concern. Brief high pressure behind the wave could allow a
relatively quiet Sunday, before digging trough across the Upper
Great Lakes slides east, returning the boundary from the south as a
warm front early next week. An attendant cold front looks to follow
by Tuesday, maintaining chances for additional showers and
thunderstorms.
Temperatures start much more seasonable for late June, afternoon
highs on Saturday into the upper 70s and lower 80s, before warming
into the mid to upper 80s early next week. With dew pts progged into
the 60s and low 70s, heat indices could approach mid 90s, especially
Monday and Tuesday next week
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains in control into this afternoon. A cold
front moves into the terminals this evening through tonight.
VFR thru the TAF period.
NW winds around 10 kt today with occasional afternoon gusts up
to 20 kt at the NYC metro terminals, except at KJFK where a sea
breeze is probable. Winds veer NE late this evening into the
night.
Late day, after 20Z, isolated showers or thunderstorms are
possible, though with uncertain coverage, timing, and location
continue to omit from TAF at this time. Increasing chance for
showers overnight into Thursday, but likewise, coverage and
timing remain highly uncertain.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of sea breeze at KJFK may be off by an hour or two.
Additionally, the sea breeze may pass through then thereafter
shift back south through the terminal and cause winds to shift
back W to NW late this afternoon.
Occasional afternoon WNW gusts up to 20 kt possible at KEWR, KLGA,
and KTEB.
Possible late day or evening showers or thunderstorms, low
confidence in timing or placement.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: MVFR or lower possible, mainly in showers, possibly a
thunderstorm.
Friday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers, possibly a
thunderstorm.
Saturday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers, possibly a
thunderstorm.
Sunday: Improvement to VFR possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
With the absence of a steep pressure gradient, conditions on
the waters are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds now
through the weekend. However, a strengthening easterly flow on
the ocean waters will produce gusts up to 20 kt with seas
building to around 4 ft Thursday night into Friday, possibly as
high as 5 ft Friday night east of Moriches Inlet.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts expected during this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is potential for minor coastal flooding during the
nighttime high tide cycles this week with a new moon. Isolated
minor coastal flooding of the most vulnerable areas of the South
Shore Bays and western Long Island Sound possible during high
tide this evening. Potentially more widespread minor coastal
flooding Thursday Friday evenings with easterly flow developing.
A Coastal Flood Statement or Advisory may be needed during this
period.
There is low risk of rip currents today at the ocean beaches
with 1 to 2 ft breakers in the surf zone. However, the risk
increases to moderate on Thursday due to a building easterly
swell and 2 ft breakers in the surf zone.
&&
.CLIMATE...
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Wednesday`s Record Highs (June 25):
EWR 100 / 1943
BDR 94 / 1952
NYC 99 / 1943, 1952
LGA 99 / 1943, 1952
JFK 98 / 1952
ISP 95 / 2025 (was 92 / 2003)-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DR/DW
NEAR TERM...BG/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JC/DR
MARINE...BG/DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...