863
FXUS61 KOKX 271754
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
154 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over New England shifts east through this evening
today with a warm front approaching overnight. The front lifts
through during Saturday morning, followed by a cold front
Saturday night. The front then stalls to our south on Sunday and
lifts back as a warm front through Monday into Tuesday as low
pressure passes well to the north. The associated cold front
then moves east Tuesday night, with high pressure returning
midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper ridge axis aloft shifts into the region with surface
high pressure over New England moving offshore this afternoon.
Mostly cloudy conditions persist across much of the area
although there will be some sunshine across eastern Long Island
and southeast CT, closer to the surface high. Clouds and onshore
flow hold high temperatures below normal levels.
A warm front then approaches tonight. Lift in association with the
front along with some help of a weak shortwave likely produce some
showers mainly for the late night hours. PWATs are quite high even
though most of the moisture is confined below 850mb. Can`t
completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm late at night as
elevated instability pushes in, but forcing is pretty weak overall.
This would also mitigate any hydrologic impacts. There could be some
fog as well but probably not dense anywhere as turbulent mixing just
above the boundary layer should be sufficient to prevent it.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Still some showers possible during the morning as the warm front
lifts north, then a prefrontal trough approaches the western zones
late in the day. SBCAPEs may build up to 1500-2500 J/kg here by this
time and mechanical lift from the approaching trough with PVA would
help overcome low-mid level capping that appears to be in place for
much of the day based on forecast soundings. Strong to potentially
severe storms could be possible in the afternoon to early evening
given the instability and winds aloft. Primary severe threat with be
for wind gusts with a fairly unidirectional flow through the column.
SPC continues to keep areas west of CT and LI in a marginal risk for
severe weather. PWATs will be high, but the flow aloft would allow
for fairly progressive cells without training. Chances are that any
hydrologic impacts would be minor, and WPC now has just about the
entire area out of any risk for flash flooding. High temperatures
return to near or a few degrees above normal on Saturday in the warm
sector and partial afternoon sunshine.
A trailing cold front then pushes through during Saturday night with
shower and thunderstorm probabilities tapering off overnight.
High pressure builds in from the west Sunday into Sunday night with
slight ridging aloft. Mostly sunny and not as muggy as Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level ridge axis overhead pushes offshore Monday as a trough
over the Upper Great Lakes advances east. Associated low pressure
with the trough lifts the boundary to the south back up and thru the
region as a warm front into late Monday. So while the bulk of the
day appears dry with latest guidance, increasing cloud cover by late
day could lead to a period of showers and thunderstorms into Monday
night.
Tuesday appears unsettled with the region warm sectored ahead of the
attendant cold front approaching from the west. Shear and
instability profiles look to increase, and any convective activity
could be strong to severe, especially as one goes west. Behind the
fropa Tuesday night, drier and cooler mid next week as high pressure
returns to the region.
Temperatures Monday and Tuesday range from the mid 80s for most to
lower 90s in parts of the urban NYC metro. With dew pts progged into
the 60s and 70s, heat indices in some locales, primarily urban NE NJ
and NYC metro, could approach or exceed 95F one or both days. Little
in the way of temperature relief behind the front, though drier air
in subsequent NW flow helps to lower humidity values mid to late
week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the northeast, as a frontal
boundary remains draped to the south over the Mid Atlantic.
Mainly VFR for the rest of the afternoon. MVFR and eventually
IFR ceilings build in after 3Z Sat with light rain developing
from west to east. Categories lower to IFR for most terminals
through the Saturday morning push. Some improvement in
categories possible after 13-15Z for the NYC terminals with rain
ending. Outlying terminals will take longer to improve to MVFR.
MVFR to VFR possible for terminals into the afternoon. SHRA and
TSRA possible after 20Z for western terminals. Included as a
Prob30 for now for the NYC terminals. Timing of best chance for
TSRA for the NYC terminals looks closer to 00Z with coverage
isolated to scattered.
Winds are E to SE with occasional gusts to around 20 kt. Gusts
diminishing by 00Z Sat. Winds then become primarily S by
Saturday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for timing of category changes and onset of
rain this evening/tonight.
Gusts today may be more occasional at times.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday: Any remaining MVFR cigs should become VFR except
outlying terminals. Showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms and MVFR in the evening.
Sunday and Monday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
late Monday and Monday night.
Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower possible,
especially late afternoon and evening.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Non-ocean waters remain below advisory thresholds through Sunday
night. On the ocean, SCA remains in effect through tonight for both
winds and seas today, and mainly for seas tonight. Winds veer
southerly for Saturday at around 10 kt then increase Saturday night
ahead of a cold front. Gusts however likely remain below 25 kt.
Mainly offshore flow for Sunday below 10 kt.
Conditions are expected to largely remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds on coastal waters early to mid next week
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Quick-moving heavy downpours are possible late Saturday into
Saturday night and could lead to some instances of nuisance flooding
in urban, low lying, and/or poor drainage locations.
No significant hydrological concerns thereafter.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Isolated minor coastal flooding is possible in the most vulnerable
locales along the back bays of S Nassau and Queens during this
evening`s high tide cycle, as water levels come down slightly
from a new moon early in the week.
There is a high rip current risk for all south shore Long Island and
NYC beaches today. Surf heights of 3-4 feet with a long shore
current will lead to this high risk. Surf height lowers to 2-3 feet
on Saturday with onshore flow, so the rip current risk will lower to
moderate on Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...JC/DS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...