422
FXUS61 KOKX 281952
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
352 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
An approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough will move across
the area tonight with weak high pressure building from Sunday
into Monday. High pressure will then give way to a warm frontal
passage Monday night, followed by a cold frontal passage late
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Weak high pressure briefly takes
control on Wednesday into Thursday morning. A weak cold front
swings through late Thursday into Thursday night, followed by
high pressure late in the week into the first part of next
weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The question over the next several hours is can the airmass
destabilize enough as a linear MCS approaches from central PA to
maintain a severe weather threat across the western half of the
forecast area. The complex to the west is associated with an
approaching pre-frontal trough ahead of a cold front. While
this system has produced damaging wind gusts across western and
central PA, it is heading into a more stable airmass to the east
of the Appalachians. MUCAPE values across the area range from
500-1000 J/kg and there should be further destabilization.
However, it is unclear as to how far east this line will get
before the severe weather threat diminishes. CAMs vary on the
timing and intensity of the line with them all pointing toward
weakening as it works into western portions of the area. Timing
will clearly be a factor as to how much instability can be
tapped in on before losing daytime heating. Wind shear also
is marginal at best to maintain  the cold pool as the complex
begins to weaken. SPC does have portions of the area under a
marginal and slight risk, basically west of line from the NYC
metro into Fairfield County in SW CT. Any lingering showers and
or thunderstorms will then push offshore during the early
morning hours Sunday with the cold frontal passage toward
daybreak. Chance for convection across the area tonight range
form 30 to 50 percent.

The forecast area will also reside in a very muggy warm sector
tonight with dew points getting into the lower 70s before the
passage of the cold front. Lows tonight will be in the upper to
lower 70s. This is about 3 to 5 degrees above normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cold front passes to the south in the morning with weak high
pressure building in from the northwest into Monday. While a
somewhat drier airmass filters into the region, this will be
nothing more than a change in airmass. This will allow highs
both Sunday and Monday to top out in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
The warmest readings will be away from the immediate south shore
and twin forks of LI. Lows Sunday night will be a bit cooler
with the drier airmass, but still several degrees above normal.
Expect mostly clear skies during this time with the next chance
of rain toward Monday evening as a warm front approaches from
the southwest. Max heat indices during this time will get into
the lower 90s for portions of the area. Not expecting any heat
headlines during this time. NBM deterministic temperatures were
used and generally are at or just below the 25th percentile.
They are close to MOS if not a bit warmer. See no reason to
deviate at this time to higher values.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
* Seasonably warm and humid through Thursday

* Less humid towards the 4th of July

A typical summer air mass will be in places during the period. A
series of cold fronts are forecast to swing through, one late
Tuesday into Tuesday night and another cold front Thursday into
Thursday night.

The first of these cold fronts will bring the region a chance of
showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Due to
large scale trough swinging through likely PoPs remain for a good
portion of the region late Tuesday. Continued mention of chance
thunder due to forecast height falls and good agreement on trough
and frontal timing. Convective feedback in the models is making QPF
a challenge to forecast; the 06 GFS had close to 2" of QPF on the
north shore of Long Island, while the 12Z GFS had just a few
hundredths of an inch from 18Z Tue to 00Z Wed. WPC guidance looked
the best overall for QPF during this time frame.

Should be in between frontal boundaries and any shortwave features
on Wednesday into Thursday morning with weak high pressure in place
and mainly dry conditions expected for this time period.

Another cold front approaches Thursday, but at this time NWP is not
indicating as much dynamics and frontal forcing with this boundary.
It appears that this cold front will move through mainly dry for
much of the forecast area, with the best chances for any showers or
thunderstorms across the Lower Hudson Valley (low end chance POPs)
and therefore the front serves mainly to lower humidity levels late
in the week towards the 4th of July holiday with only a slight
chance of showers thunderstorms late Thursday and Thursday evening.

Conditions are expected to remain mainly dry Friday into the first
half of next weekend with high pressure in control.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will then move through late tonight into Sunday morning.

VFR expected until fog and low stratus possibly return tonight
bringing back MVFR to IFR conditions. VFR again by around 11z Sunday
morning.

Showers and thunderstorms remain possible this evening, but
confidence is still relatively low. Kept -TSRA in a PROB30
group, except for KSWF where confidence is higher and a TEMPO
remains.

S/SW winds through this evening, becoming more W/NW behind the
cold front overnight. Winds mainly W Sunday except at some
coastal locations where a sea breeze is possible.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty in how low conditions go this evening and overnight.
May be more of a vsby issue than cigs.

Showers and thunderstorms possible this evening. Confidence is
higher for showers, but thunder chances remain low. The
potential window is 23z-04z, but any activity, if it happens,
will likely only last up to an hour.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Afternoon: VFR.

Monday: VFR during the day. A chance of showers and thunderstorms at
night. MVFR or lower possible at night.

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower possible,
especially afternoon and evening. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt day into
early eve.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms
possible north and west of NYC

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Monday with weak high
pressure influencing the waters.

Wind gusts and waves should start to approach SCA conditions for the
central and eastern ocean waters Tuesday afternoon, with small craft
conditions likely Tuesday night into early Wednesday in response to
a cold front. Thereafter, sub-SCA conditions return into mid and
late week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic concerns outside of minor nuisance, poor drainage
flooding issues with any thunderstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is a moderate risk of rip current development across the ocean
beaches into Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...