706
FXUS61 KOKX 051758
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
158 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control through the weekend. A cold
front then approaches from the Great Lakes on Monday, passing
slowly across the area Tuesday or even stalling in close proximity
into midweek. A more robust frontal system may approach the area
by the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure centered over the western Atlantic ridges into the
region with a light SW flow. This will result in higher dewpoints
and low temperatures compared to last night. Dry through the night
with lows ranging from the low 70s in the city and around 70 for
most coastal areas, to the mid 60s well inland.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry weather continues on Sunday with subsidence and capping. h8
temperatures warm up to 17-18C, so anticipating highs in the low-mid
90s in the usual warmest spots in NE NJ, and mostly upper 80s to
around 90 away from the immediate south-facing coasts.
Dewpoints near the the top of the mixed layer look low enough for
surface dewpoints to mix out at least a little during the afternoon
for areas away from the coast - even on a SW flow. This will help
keep heat indices below advisory thresholds. Dry for Sunday night
with patchy fog late.
The flow aloft remains anticyclonic during Monday, but less so
during Monday night as the remnant circulation from Chantal
approaches from the south. It probably remains dry through most
of the morning as the only notable lift available appears to be
from increasing instability, but held in check by mid-level
capping. Shower/thunderstorm chances would then begin thereafter
with mechanical lift joining in via a subtle shortwave(s) head
of Chantal`s circulation. Chances then continue through Monday
night with the remnant system even closer, but there`s not
enough confidence from the varying model solutions to go with
likely PoPs. Some guidance even suggests a narrow band of
subsidence forming over the forecast area between an
approaching cold front from the west and Chantal`s remnants from
the south. Please refer to the latest official forecast from
the National Hurricane Center regarding tropical cyclone
Chantal.
Regarding temperatures and heat indices for Monday, h8 temperatures
don`t change all that much from Sunday, but will perhaps be slightly
warmer. Even if this is the case, there should be more afternoon
cloud cover as compared to Sunday, therefore anticipating slightly
lower high temps for the most part this time around. Surface
dewpoints will be higher, however. Boundary layer dewpoints increase
with the approach of Chantal`s remnants, making it difficult for
surface dewpoints to mix out. Right now it still appears that 1-day
heat advisory criteria will not be met. However, an advisory could
still be needed in a few areas for Monday-Tuesday based on 2-day
criteria.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Despite the unsettled nature of the extended forecast, global models
were in fairly decent agreement, so the NBM was followed.
A cold front will eventually move through the area and stall in the
vicinity Tuesday. On Tuesday, heights aloft will lower but flow
should remain fairly zonal with a subtle trough to the west.
Disturbances in the flow will traverse the area through much of the
middle of the week.
High pressure over the Western Atlantic will promote a general S/SW
flow which likely brings subtropical moisture up the East Coast. The
combination of several mid-level disturbances moving through, a
stalled surface boundary in the vicinity, and a moist S/SW flow will
allow for much of the extended portion of the forecast to have a
chance for showers and thunderstorms. WPC has the area in a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall from Tuesday to Wednesday morning.
Showers and storms during this period may produce locally heavy
rainfall with some isolated hydrologic concerns.
By the end of the week, more robust energy in the flow approaches
from the west and allows the trough to dig into the Northeast. This
will provide for a better opportunity for showers and storms as well
as a slight decreases in temperatures. High pressure may try to
build in from the northeast by Saturday.
Despite chances for showers each day, high temperatures should
remain in the middle 80s through mid-week and upper 70s to low 80s
by the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR as high pressure remains offshore through Sunday.
S-SSW winds around 10 kt this afternoon. Winds decrease in the
evening, then go light and variable at outlying terminals
overnight. S-SSW winds redevelop Sunday morning, increasing to
10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible Sunday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts 17-20 kt possible at KJFK 21-00z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Afternoon-Night: Mainly VFR afternoon/evening. SSW gusts
around 20 kt in the afternoon. MVFR/IFR fog possible east of
NYC metro terminals overnight.
Monday-Thursday: Mainly afternoon and evening showers/
thunderstorms possible with MFR-IFR. Highest chance exists late
Monday through Tuesday evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through at least
Sunday morning. Near-advisory gusts are expected Sunday afternoon
into evening on the ocean with seas climbing to around 4 ft. Sub-
advisory conditions are then likely for Monday through at least
Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrological concerns are expected through the beginning of
next week. Some tropical moisture may feed into the area Tuesday
into Wednesday which may allow for an environment supportive of
locally heavy rainfall. WPC has portions of the area in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall for this timeframe.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
No widespread hydrological concerns are expected through the
beginning of next week. Some tropical moisture may feed into the
area Tuesday into Wednesday which may allow for an environment with
the potential for heavy rainfall. WPC has portions of the area in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall for this timeframe.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...