079
FXUS61 KOKX 171454
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1054 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this
morning will work east today, passing through the area this
evening. Weak high pressure builds in Friday into Friday night and
then offshore Saturday. A frontal system will impact the region
Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure builds in for early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Multiple MCV`s from the Great Lakes east to the NJ coast will
get absorbed into the shortwave trough lifting across the
Northeast this morning into this afternoon. For the most past,
CAM`s show little if any convection, with the 00Z NSSL WRF the
most aggressive in swinging a broken line through the area
during the mid to late afternoon. Weakening mid level lapse
rates and drying moisture profiles all point to limited activity
this afternoon/early this evening, with mainly isolated to
widely scattered convection. There is moderate instability with
increasing DCAPE this afternoon and 35-40kt of mid-level flow.
SPC has the much of the area in a marginal risk for an isolated
severe threat. Expect cold front to come through perhaps with
something isolated.
A heat advisory remains up for the entire forecast area through
10 PM. It will be another hot and humid day with heat indices
around 100 for most locales, with a few spots up to 102-103.
Used a blend of the NBM with CONSALL as dew points should fall
some this afternoon with a drying vertical moisture profile as
winds veer more westerly. NBM deterministic temperatures have
been trending upward with a drying air mass, and many locations
will top out at or above 90 away from the south shore and twin
forks of Long Island. Record highs are not expected. KEWR will
likely get to around 95.
SW winds will become gusty late this morning into this afternoon
with gusts 20-30 mph. NBM seems to have been playing catchup
with the winds and leaned toward the 90th percentile and even a
bit higher. This is supported by 00Z NAM and GFS upper air
soundings. Winds will shift to the W-NW behind the cold front
this evening.
Lows behind the front will be cooler, but still several degrees
above normal. What will be even more noticeable will be the drier
air mass filtering into the region overnight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds in Friday into Friday night and then
offshore on Saturday ahead of an approaching frontal system.
Highs will be closer to normal during this time. It will be much
more comfortable with a dry airmass in place Friday into Friday
night, with increasing humidity on Saturday due to a southerly
flow. Rain chances will also be on the increase Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night as a warm front approaches from
southwest, passing to the north overnight. Best chance for rain
at this time will be at night. Some thunder is possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Humidity levels will be increasing with dew points rising back
into the lower 70s Sunday following a warm frontal passage. A
chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue on Sunday
along and ahead of a cold front. The cold front passes Sunday
late afternoon/evening and will bring somewhat drier air. High
pressure follows early next with temperatures at or just below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front is nearing the area from the west and north today
from a low pressure system over southern Ontario. This front
will pass through the area this evening. High pressure builds in
from the west tonight into tomorrow.
Mainly VFR is expected through the TAF period. However, MVFR
may come and go in lower broken ceilings today through 17-18Z.
MVFR is possible again in SHRA/TSRA roughly 19Z-02Z today (mid-
afternoon to early evening). Coverage looks sparse and location
is uncertain, so have kept out of the TAFs for now except for a
TEMPO for TSRA at KSWF 20Z-00Z. Its possible these may be added
in the 18Z TAFs later, should confidence increase.
SW winds will continue to increase into the afternoon, 15-20 kt
with gusts 20-25 kt. Can`t rule out a stray gust up to 30 kt at
the NYC metros. Follow FROPA, winds become NW mid to late
evening at 10-15 kts with gusts of around 20 kts becoming
occasional. Outlying terminals may drop below 10 kts overnight.
Kept gusts out of TAFs tomorrow, with winds NW/NNW around 10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
SW winds could briefly gust up to 30 kt late this afternoon.
An isolated shower or tstm nay be possible from about 19Z-02Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday and Saturday: VFR.
Saturday night and Sunday: Showers likely, chance of tstms.
MVFR or lower cond likely.
Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Strengthening SW flow will bring a period of marginal SCA cond
to the ocean waters E of Fire Island Inlet late this afternoon
into the overnight. The remaining waters may see some occasional
near shore gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. High pressure will
build in on Friday, with cond remaining below SCA thresholds
from then through Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrologic impacts are not expected through the middle of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With strengthening SW flow today, the risk for rip current
development will be moderate, and surf height will be 2-3 ft.
The moderate risk will continue into Friday, with winds from the
NW-W and a remaining S swell.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009-010.
NY...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ350-353.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW/MW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...