592
FXUS61 KOKX 181148
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
748 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
On the heels of a cold frontal passage, high pressure will
build from the Great Lakes through tonight, then pass offshore
Saturday with a warm front approaching from the south. The front
will move through Sunday morning, followed by a cold frontal
passage late Sunday. High pressure will follow for Sunday night
through Tuesday. A frontal boundary will be nearby for Wednesday
and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NW winds gusting to around 20 mph this morning will usher in a
more refreshing mid summer air mass, with partly to mostly sunny
skies under high clouds streaming across from the west, high
temps close to the mid summer average, and afternoon dewpoints
55-60. Diminishing winds later this afternoon may allow a light
sea breeze to develop along the immediate south shore of Long
Island late.
Mostly clear skies and light winds tonight will promote
radiational cooling, with low temps ranging from the upper
50s/lower 60s inland, to the lower 70s in NYC and immediate
eastern/western suburbs.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Flow aloft will be zonal, with the sfc high moving offshore and
winds becoming S. A weak shortwave trough may allow a few
showers and possibly a tstm to develop in the afternoon from the
NYC metro area west, with S CT and Long Island remaining mostly
dry via more stable marine influence. High temps will again be
close to the seasonal avg, with dewpoints rising through the
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As an upper trough moves across E Canada, heights aloft will
start to fall, with a weak frontal system approaching Sat night
into Sunday and bringing chances for showers and tstms. With PW
near 2 inches any tstms could produce brief/locally heavy rain
rainfall.
WAA will lead to a warmer and more humid night Sat night, with
lows 70-75 and dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s by daybreak.
Temps daytime Sunday will also be warmer, with highs near 90 in
NE NJ and in the mid/upper 80s most elsewhere.
Timing of the cold front passage remains consistent and looks
to be Sunday late afternoon/evening. Much drier air returns
behind the cold front with temperatures returning to more
seasonal normals Monday through Wednesday. The cold front that
moved through Sunday/Sunday night will remain south of the
region, and possibly return north as a warm front later
Wednesday into Thursday, bringing warmer and humid conditions
back to the area.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure over the Great Lakes this morning will build
across the area through tonight, then offshore on Saturday.
VFR.
Following a cold frontal passage, winds this morning will be NW
at 10-15 kt with a few gusts to around 20 kt. Gusts are likely
lost in the 14Z-15Z timeframe as winds gradually weaken, falling
below 10 kt by late afternoon/early evening. Light and variable
or a light northerly flow tonight will become southerly on
Saturday at 5-10kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
End time of occasional gusts this morning may be off by 1-2
hours.
Winds may back to the W this afternoon at KJFK.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers/isolated thunder mainly
late in the day.
Saturday night and Sunday: Showers possible with a chance of
thunderstorms. MVFR or lower conditions possible.
Sunday night through Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Seas are still at 5 ft on the ocean E of Moriches Inlet, so the
SCA will remain in effect there til daybreak. High pressure will
build in today, with conditions remaining below SCA thresholds
thereafter into Tue night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
For late Sat night into Sunday, with PW near 2 inches, any tstms
could produce brief/locally heavy rain rainfall.
Widespread impacts not expected attm.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk has been forecast for the Nassau and
Suffolk beaches for today, with 4-ft wind waves at 6-sec period
still out of the SW. The rip current risk for Sat has been
changed to low, with 2-ft southerly wind waves at 6-sec period
and S winds mostly 10 kt or less.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...