024
FXUS61 KOKX 201418
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1018 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front pushes through the area this morning, followed by
a cold frontal passage this evening. High pressure builds in
Monday into Tuesday, and centers over the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The high shifts offshore Wednesday night into
Thursday. A low passing into east Quebec Friday will bring
through a cold front late Friday into Friday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A warm front will continue to push north through the region
this morning, acting as a focus for isolated downpours and
thunderstorms across mainly E LI and SE CT, in a marginally
unstable airmass with modest deep layer shear, as a shortwave
slides through the area. Bulk of rainfall with a weak surface
wave should continue to slide just south and east of the area
this morning.
Partial clearing skies, and continued waa and moisture
advection expected later this morning into afternoon, allowing
temps to warm to the upper 80s and lower 90s. Max Apparent Ts
expected to rise into the upper 90s with isolated 100 as Tds
hold in the lower to mid 70s. This is below the one day Heat
Advisory criteria.
Falling heights ahead of deep shortwave pivoting towards
northern New England this aft/eve, accompanied by left front
quad of 70 kt ulj should be suitable forcing for isolated to
scattered severe thunderstorms along a cold front approaching
late in the day in a marginal to moderately unstable, moderately
sheared (0-6km bulk shear of 30 to 40 kt), with mid-level dry
air. Environment is conditionally favorable for strong to
damaging wind gusts, with the limiting factors for coverage
being a lack of a distinct shortwave, a skinny CAPE profile
with weak lapse rates. A slight risk has been maintained across
the same areas as previous forecasts for NYC north and west,
with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely done by midnight with a
much cooler and drier airmass filtered in behind the cold
front on gusty NW flow.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Some of the more comfortable weather days of the summer are expected
in the short term period with dry conditions, sunny skies, 80 degree
highs and cool nights.
As high pressure builds in on Monday the pressure gradient will
briefly be tight and a breezy northwest flow is expected at least on
Monday morning. Some decent mixing is seen in forecast soundings,
but with winds not too strong aloft only expecting about 20 mph
gusts at the surface.
The high will bring with it a cooler and drier airmass. NBM was
followed for highs. Monday highs will be about normal and for
Tuesday they will be a few degrees below normal. Dewpoints and lows
were adjusted slightly to account for NBM biases. Monday night could
be the coolest night in a while with low to mid 50s possible across
the interior and upper 50s to mid 60s elsewhere. Dewpoints look
to bottom out in the 40s and low 50s Monday night. At this time
it looks like Tuesday night will be a bit warmer due to a
return flow kicking in.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Temps climb Wed into Thu. Heat index may exceed 100 by Fri.
* Dry through Thu night.
* Showers & thunderstorms possible with cold front Fri/Fri
night.
In the upper-levels, a ridge builds in from the west and
amplifies through Wednesday night. This ridge then flattens
Thursday into Thursday night. Shortwave energy passes late
Friday into Friday night.
At the surface, high pressure centers over the area into
Wednesday, then shifts offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. A
low passing into east Quebec Friday moves into the North
Atlantic Friday night into Saturday. This low brings through a
cold front late Friday into Friday night.
Wednesday through Friday, temperatures will warm each day in
response to the high moving east and higher heights aloft. Heat
index values may exceed 95 on Thursday for parts of the area, then
exceed 100 for large portions of the area on Friday.
With ample heating, shortwave energy passing aloft, high dewpoints &
atmospheric moisture, and lift from an approaching/passing cold
front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late Friday
into early Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A warm front passes through late this morning and lifts further
north this afternoon. A cold front follows late
this afternoon and this evening.
Improving conditions take place over the next few hours and becoming
VFR for all terminals. A isolated-scattered line of convection is
then expected between 19Z and 02Z along and ahead of the approaching
cold front, with a severe wind gust threat. The cold front will
clear KSWF around 23Z, NYC terminals 01Z, and LI and CT terminals 01-
02Z.
Light and variable winds for the next few hours, then SW winds
develop and increase to around 10kt this afternoon. Winds become NW
Sunday evening behind the cold front 10-15kt with a few G20kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments may be needed for TSRA activity this afternoon and the
first half of the evening (until 01z).
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: Mainly VFR. NW winds 10-15g20kt.
Monday night through Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and waves look to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through the week with a weak pressure gradient in place.
Occasional nearshore gusts to 25 kt possible late tonight thru
Monday afternoon in NW flow.
However, there is potential for strong to possibly a few severe
thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. Locally stronger
wind gusts and higher waves are possible in any thunderstorms.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
At this time, there are no hydrologic concerns through the week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Mainly a low rip current risk today, with the exception being
for the eastern Suffolk ocean beaches where a moderate risk is
more likely by afternoon with lingering E to SE 8 second period
swells. A low rip current risk is expected for all ocean beaches
on Monday with more of a land breeze out of the northwest.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/JT
NEAR TERM...JT/NV
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BR/JT
HYDROLOGY...BR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...