358
FXUS61 KOKX 221925
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
325 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure centered over the region on Wednesday will remain in
control through Thursday. High pressure will slide to the east of
the area on Friday. A cold front then moves through late Friday into
early Saturday with another frontal system possibly impacting the
area for later in the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A few low level convergence lines will be in portions of the area,
at least early on tonight. One will be a sea breeze boundary, and
another one further south is expected to remain south of the area
out over the ocean to the south. The expectation is that any shower
chance will be minimal (around 5 to 10 percent) across far southern
or southwestern portions of the area. Have chosen to keep the
forecast dry and all PoPs below slight chance. Otherwise mainly
clear skies and comfortable for tonight, although not quite as cool
in the outlying locations as the previous night with 500 mb heights
beginning to ensue. Most lows will be in the 60s, with some upper
half of the 50s in the northern and northwestern interior locations
with light to calm winds. There may be a few pockets of radiational
patchy fog in some of the valleys late in the overnight across
portions of the cooler interior.

On Wednesday the air mass begins to undergo some modification as 500
mb heights build to 590 dm with 1000-500mb thicknesses beginning to
inch up. Also, later in the day a light return flow attempts to get
initiated as the region begins to get on the back side of high
pressure which gets further east. Therefore dew point readings begin
to inch up some and get back into the lower 60s. Temperatures will
also get back to normal levels with mainly middle and upper 80s for
day time maxes, with a few spots in urban NE NJ possibly reaching 90.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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With large scale ridging in place look for warmer temperatures and
increasing humidity. Towards early Thursday 500 mb heights get on
either side of 594 dm, and by Thursday afternoon global progs have
1000-500 mb thicknesses climbing to 576+ dm. This should lead to
much of the area approaching middle and upper 90 heat indices.
Therefore lows Wednesday night will be noticeably warmer with mainly
upper 60s and lower half of the 70s. During the day Thursday look
for hot and humid conditions with a good deal of sun. With 850 mb
getting to around 18 C temperatures should reach upper 80s and lower
90s widespread, with possibly a few middle 90s in the more metro
locations of NE NJ and NYC. Thus, at least for now it appears
that heat advisory criteria does not get met on Thursday, but
somewhat close in a few of the urban locations. With BUFKIT
forecast soundings quite dry in the mid levels and large scale
capping in place the region will remain shower and thunderstorm
free through mid week.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The NBM was largely followed with this update with no major changes.

**Key Messages**

* Hot and humid conditions continue Friday and Saturday with heat
  indices in the low 100s Friday and mid/upper 90s Saturday.

* Showers/thunderstorms are possible with a cold front Friday
  night/Saturday morning then again from Sunday into Monday.

Upper ridge overhead to start the period with the ridge axis east of
the area by Friday evening with a more zonal upper level flow into
the weekend. With heights building into Friday, h850 temperatures of
18-21C in a well mixed layer should result in surface temperates in
the mid to upper 90s, and looks to be the warmest day of the period.
These temperatures combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s
will yield heat indices in 100-105 degree range. A cold front then
approaches later on Friday, which will initiate a round of showers
and thunderstorms. The airmass ahead of the front is marginally
unstable with PWATS >2.0", though shear is lacking. CSU machine-
learning guidance does maintain around 15% probabilities of severe
thunderstorms across mainly the interior. The front then stalls to
our south, given the aforementioned zonal flow aloft.

Saturday is a bit more uncertain with respect to the excessive heat
given any lingering cloud cover in the morning. h850 temperatures do
tick a few degrees down, resulting in highs in the mid and upper
80s, yielding heat indices in the mid and upper 90s.

Heat headlines may be needed Friday and Saturday should the current
temperature and dewpoint forecasts hold.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the northwest today and remains
overhead through tonight. The high moves off the coast Wednesday.

VFR through the forecast period. Low chance of MVFR ceilings along
the coast toward Wednesday morning. Did not include in the TAFs at
this time.

Any remaining NE or E winds around 10 kt shift SE this afternoon and
remain generally 10-15 kt or less. Seabreezes impacting KBDR, KGON,
KJFK, and KISP this afternoon. Winds light to light and variable
tonight. Light SE/S wind pick back up after 14Z Wednesday around 10
kt. Some gusts to 20kt are possible Wednesday afternoon but not
confident enough in frequency and occurrence to include in the TAFs
at this time.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Some gusts to 20kt possible Wednesday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday afternoon: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. South winds G20-25kt, highest at the coast.

Friday: VFR likely through morning, possibly followed by periods of
sub VFR in showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening.

Saturday: VFR with scattered showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon and at night.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible in any showers or storms
during the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Sub advisory conditions prevail through Wednesday night and most of
the day Thursday. Winds may approach SCA gusts on waters as early as
late in the day Thursday, or by Thursday evening as ocean seas inch
up closer to 4 ft. Winds may approach SCA gusts on the waters again
late Friday. Sub-SCA conditions expected thereafter.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns at this time.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A moderate rip current risk continues at ocean beaches into this
evening. The rip current risk remains low on Wednesday as seas and
swells subside in combination of a developing light S flow in the
afternoon. The rip current risk increases to moderate on Thursday
with increasing S flow to 10-15 kt and building S seas to 3-4 ft in
the afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DS
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JE/DS
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...