546
FXUS61 KOKX 231710
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
110 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore today but remains in control through
early Friday. A cold front moves through the area Friday evening
into Friday night, with another frontal system possibly impacting
the area for later in the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Heights aloft steadily rise today as an upper level ridge
builds in. The axis passes through at the very end of the
tonight period, with 500mb heights maxing out around 594dam. At
the surface, high pressure shifts offshore today and a return
flow starts to kick in.
These features will lead to dry conditions with scattered to
locally bkn diurnal CU under a 850mb subsidence inversion in
the vicinity and to the north of sea breeze.
The airmass is still on the cooler side from what we have seen a
lot this summer so highs will top out in the low to mid 80s,
actually right around normal for this time of year. The pressure
gradient tightens a bit late in the day resulting in a S/SW
flow picking up. Overnight lows will be much warmer than last
night given higher winds and increasing moisture, low 60s across
the interior and low 70s along the coastal areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Increasingly hot and humid conditions are expected during the
short term period.
The upper level ridge axis will already be to our east Thursday
morning and a broad trough will approach and gradually lower
heights. At the surface, high pressure holds its ground offshore
and really remains in control through Friday morning. However,
the pressure gradient over the area strengthens further and will
lead to a gusty southwesterly flow. Moisture continues to
increase, but with some mixing expected in the afternoon
dewpoints could drop a bit. Due to this, went a bit lower than
NBM with dewpoints. Combination of low 90s high temps and mid to
upper 60s dewpoints will result in spotty max heat indices
right around 95 for northeast NJ and portions of the Lower
Hudson Valley. Since it will likely be isolated, have held off
with the issuance of a Heat Advisory. Other locations look to
fall short of Advisory criteria.
The flow weakens just a bit on Friday but stays pretty gusty.
Higher heat and humidity is leading to widespread forecast max
heat index values at Warning criteria (105 degrees) in some
locations. However, there is a bit of uncertainty given the
potential for clouds and convection. The higher chances of
Warning criteria look to be across northeast NJ, NYC, western
LI, southern Lower Hudson Valley and portions of western CT. A
Watch may be needed if confidence continues to increase. Other
locations look to reach Advisory criteria, except for southeast
Suffolk and southern New London counties.
As for the aforementioned convection, a cold front approaches
during the day and passes through likely sometime during the
evening or early night. Out ahead of the front, the environment
should be able to destabilize well. There is some disagreement
from the NAM and GFS as to how much MLCAPE will be available,
but it is too early for specifics anyway. Consensus however does
show about 25 to 30 kts of 0-6km bulk shear. It looks like
there is at least potential right now for some of these storms
to reach levels. One limiting factor to note that is already
being seen in the forecast soundings is a relatively skinnier
CAPE hinting at weaker updrafts. Another one is a weaker
shortwave aloft. Regardless of severe or not, showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the whole area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The NBM was largely followed with this update with no major changes.
**Key Messages**
* Hot and humid conditions continue into Saturday with heat indices
potentially in the mid/upper 90s Saturday.
* Showers/thunderstorms are possible from Sunday into Monday.
Saturday is a bit more uncertain with respect to the excessive
heat given any lingering cloud cover in the morning. h850
temperatures do tick a few degrees down, resulting in highs in
the mid and upper 80s, yielding heat indices potentially in the
mid and upper 90s.
Heat headlines may be needed on Saturday should the current
temperature and dewpoint forecasts hold.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure moves offshore today and remains offshore into
Thursday.
VFR through the forecast period.
Winds generally S at 7-12kt this afternoon. Some enhancement to
15kt possible along the immediate coast. A few gusts up to 20
kt are possible this afternoon, however, not confident enough in
frequency and occurrence to include in the TAFs. Winds become
light SW to light and variable tonight. Winds pick back up out
of the SSW after 12Z Thursday and increase to 10-15kt with gusts
up to 25kt possible.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts up to 20 kt possible at KEWR, KTEB, and KLGA this
afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday: VFR. South winds G20-25kt, highest at the coast.
Friday: VFR likely through morning, possibly followed by periods of
sub VFR in showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon and
evening. Southwest winds G15-20kt.
Saturday: VFR with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and at night possible.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible in any showers or
thunderstorms.
Monday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for the most part
through early next week.
Brief 25 kt gusts are possible in a southwesterly flow on Thursday,
mainly on the ocean waters. Gusts look to get close to 25 kts on
Friday ahead of a cold frontal passage.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold frontal
passage Friday afternoon through the evening. There is potential for
some of these to be severe.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week at this
time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk for today will be in the moderate range
with a mix of 2 ft S/SE wind waves and swells, and still a wide
tidal range with approach of new moon.
With continued southerly flow on Thursday, a solid moderate
risk anticipated with southerly wind waves building to 3 ft,
and residual 1-2 Se wind swell. There is potential for a late
day high rip current risk across Nassau and Queens beaches with
late day coastal jet development.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...JT/NV
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DS/JT
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DS/JT
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...