okx-afd on 2025-07-24

723
FXUS61 KOKX 241424
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1024 AM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains offshore through today and moves farther
offshore tonight into Friday. A cold front moves through the
area late Friday into Friday evening. High pressure builds back
into the area Friday night into Saturday. A frontal system
begins to impact the area Saturday night, and moves across the
area on Sunday. High pressure then builds in for Monday and
Tuesday. A cold front moves across the region mid-week.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Key points...

*Heat indices in the lower 90s to 95F for NE NJ and Lower
Hudson Valley today.

Offshore high pressure remains in control today with dry
weather, scattered to locally bkn CU development in vicinity of
and to the north of seabreeze boundary. Temperatures will rise
to a few degrees above normal (lower 90s west of Hudson River,
and 80s elsewhere) in a gusty S/SW flow. Gusts to around 30 mph
possible for LI and NYC late this afternoon. Also, with a
strengthening southerly flow dew points will be moderating into
the mid to upper 60s through the day.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key points...

* A Heat Warning has been issued for much of Northeastern New
Jersey for Friday. And Heat Advisories remain in effect for
much of the remainder of the region Friday.

* Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms possible Friday
afternoon, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat.

Offshore high pressure moves farther offshore tonight as the
upper ridge weakens with the approach of a longwave trough
moving into eastern Canada and into upstate New York and
Northern New England. The upper flow is nearly zonal across the
northern tier of the country allowing for a progressive flow.
Return flow continue into Friday with increased heat and
humidity. The Heat Watch for much of Northeastern New Jersey
was converted to an Extreme Heat Warning for Friday with heat
indices still forecast to peak at 105 to around 107. And the
Heat Advisory remains in effect for all but Southern New London
County, and Southeastern Suffolk County. Across the advisory
heat indices peak at 100 to 104. There still is the chance that
warning criteria will not be met as clouds will be increasing
ahead of an approaching cold front that moves through the
region Friday afternoon, and south of the area Friday evening.
Also, with the elevated heat record high temperatures may be
tied or broken at the climate sites. See the climate section for
details.

There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms with the
passage of the cold front Friday, and the area remains in a
marginal risk for isolated severe storms, with damaging wind
gusts the primary threat. The best forcing will be to the north
of the area as shortwave energy rotates through the longwave
upper trough. CAPE increases to 500 to around 1000 J/kg Friday
afternoon, with shear of 20 to 30 kt, along with surface
instability. Inverted V soundings Friday afternoon indicate the
potential for strong to damaging wind gusts. The flood threat
is minimal as the storms are forecast to be rather quick moving,
at 25 to 30 mph, with training not expected. Any of the storms
could produce briefly heavy rainfall and any flood threat will
be isolated. And the area is not in an excessive outlook for
Friday.

Dry weather returns Friday evening into Saturday as high
pressure builds to the north. A frontal system begins to
approach late Saturday night with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The NBM was followed through the long term with just a few
cosmetic changes.

Key Points:

* Showers and thunderstorms expected on Sunday with the passage of a
cold front. Some thunderstorms will be capable of gusty winds and
heavy rainfall.

* Dry but hot conditions expected Monday and Tuesday, with Tuesday
being the warmest day of the week. Temperatures Tuesday will be in
the lower and middle 90s with the potential for heat index values
exceeding 100 in spots. Heat headlines may be needed Monday and
Tuesday with the potential for Wednesday.

* A cold front moves across the area mid-week. This will end the
2-3 days of hot and humid conditions.

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains over the area terminals.

VFR.

S-SW winds less than 10 kt will increase to 10-15kt with gusts
20-25kt from late morning through early evening. Winds diminish
after 00z.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Can not rule out a few occasional guts over 25kt. Timing of
gusts may be +/- 1 hour from TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR likely through morning, possibly followed by periods of
sub VFR in showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon and
evening. Southwest winds G15-20kt.

Saturday: VFR with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and at night possible.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible in any showers or
thunderstorms.

Monday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Winds and seas remain below advisory levels across the forecast
waters today through Saturday night. However, wind gusts on the
ocean waters may briefly approach 25 kt late this afternoon
into early this evening. With low confidence in occurrence, and
short duration, have not issued a Small Craft Advisory.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of a cold
front Friday, which may produce wind gusts in excess of 35 kt.

Winds and seas are forecast to largely remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria Sunday through early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --Primarily a minor urban and poor drainage flooding threat with
isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon,
with low and localized flash flood threat with any repetitive
thunderstorm activity.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a frontal system
could produce locally heavy downpours on Sunday that result in
nuisance flooding, but the overall flood threat appears low at
this time.-- End Changed Discussion --

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the ocean beaches today and Friday.

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures maybe be tied or broken Friday
July 25th. Here are the current records for the day...

EWR 99/2016
BDR 93/2001
NYC 97/1999
LGA 97/1999
JFK 93/2010
ISP 94/1987

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ005>011.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ067>075-
078>080-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NJZ002.
Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NJZ004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET/NV
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...20
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV
CLIMATE...NV