038
FXUS61 KOKX 251129
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
729 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides east this morning. A cold front will move
through the area late this afternoon and evening. High pressure
briefly builds into the area tonight into Saturday. A weak frontal
system moves across the area Saturday Night into Sunday. High
pressure returns to the area for Monday into Tuesday. A cold front
approaches from the west on Tuesday afternoon and moves offshore
Tuesday evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key points...
* Heat headlines remain in effect. Heat indices are expected to
reach 100 to 105F for most of the area.
* Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening with
damaging wind gusts the primary threat. There is also a low flash
flood threat.
High pressure slides east today allowing a cold front to push across
the region late in the afternoon into this evening. The two main
issues today will be the heat and the storms associated with the
cold frontal passage.
The combination of temperatures in the 90s, combined with dew points
in the lower to middle 70s will result in heat index values reaching
100-105 for much of the area. An extreme heat warning continues for
NE NJ with highest confidence in widespread 105F heat indices, with
heat advisories for most of the remainder of the area with heat
indices in the 100 to 105F range.
A cold front approaches this afternoon and moves across the area
this evening. A prefrontal trough along with a shortwave should set
the stage for showers and thunderstorms to develop and move across
the area. Latest 00z CAMS are in pretty good agreement with the
timing of the storms mainly impacting the region between 18z-00z,
however they all seem to differ differently on the exact coverage
and placement of the storms. The main threat with any storms today
will be damaging wind gusts.
In addition, any storms will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall. PWATs are forecast to be 2.0-2.50 inches. While any storms
that develop today should have some movement to them, can not rule
out a low threat for flash flooding.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front slides SE of the region tonight with high pressure
building back into the region.
Dry conditions expected on Saturday, with noticeably drier and
cooler airmass advecting in on gusty N/NE flow. Temperatures however
will still be running slight above seasonable with highs in the mid
to upper 80s, and heat indices similar. Near seasonable temps for
Saturday night with increasing humidity levels as return flow
develops.
On Sunday there is some uncertainty with the exact evolution and
timing of a weak frontal system that may impact the area. Low
confidence PoPs given the offshore high trending stronger.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected for the second half of
Sunday, mainly west of NYC. Some thunderstorms will be capable of
gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The NBM was largely followed with this update with no major changes.
Key Points:
*High heat and humidity will be on the increase again early to mid
next week. Heat indices look to peak on Tuesday.
*Dry conditions expected until a frontal passage on Tuesday
afternoon which will bring a round of showers/thunderstorms.
Unsettled conditions continue Wednesday and Thursday, with
thunderstorm chances each afternoon.
Good model agreement with upper ridging over the northeast to start
the period as a ridge encompasses the eastern two-thirds of CONUS. A
series of shortwaves moves through the ridging and will impact the
area mid week.
Heights build Monday and Tuesday with sfc high pressure east of the
area. h850 temperatures nearing 18-21C, peaking on Tuesday, will
result in sfc max temperatures in the low to mid 90s (upper 80s at
the coast). With dewpoints increasing to the mid 70s by Tuesday,
heat indices in the low 100s (upper 90s coastal areas) will be
possible. Heat headlines would be needed Monday and Tuesday, and
possible into Wednesday should the current forecast hold.
With the cold frontal passage on Tuesday, a period of afternoon
thunderstorms is possible. Model soundings indicate 500-1000J of
MUCAPE though shear is weak (~20kts). CSU-MLP machine learning
output is highlighting a 15-30% chance of severe thunderstorms from
NYC north and west Tuesday, and details will come into more focus
over the next few days.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR through early this afternoon. MVFR or lower visibilities
are likely as TSRA may impact the terminals after 18Z. Strong
gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorm. Have converted
PROB30s to TEMPOs for this activity in the TAF as confidence in
coverage and occurrence has increased.
Southwest winds increase to 10-15kts this AM. Winds then become
NW behind the frontal passage in the late afternoon/evening.
Occasional gusts up to about 20 kt are possible during the
afternoon outside of TSRA.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts up to 20 kt are possible this afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: VFR.
Saturday night - Sunday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible in any
showers or thunderstorms.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR with possible MVFR or lower in showers and
thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Some occasional gusts to 25 kt are possible in a S flow on the ocean
waters today ahead of a cold frontal passage. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and this evening
ahead of a cold frontal passage this evening.
A brief period of 20 kt gusts are possible in wake of cold
frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Given a weak pressure gradient, winds and waves will largely stay
below Small Craft Advisory criteria Sunday through Tuesday.
There is a brief chance of approaching 25kts across the waters
in the vicinity of a cold frontal passage on Tuesday
afternoon/evening.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Primarily a minor urban and poor drainage flooding threat with
thunderstorm activity this afternoon that could produce rainfall
rates of 2+"/hr with PWATS as high as 2"-2 1/2", but will be overall
progressive limiting duration over an one area. Based on these
potential rainfall rates, there is a low flash flood threat with any
localized repetitive thunderstorm activity.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a frontal system
could produce locally heavy downpours on Sunday that result in
nuisance flooding, but the overall flood threat appears low at
this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
A moderate rip current risk is in effect today with southerly
wind waves building to 3 to 4 ft. A moderate rip current risk
continues for Saturday, though surf heights lessen to 2-3ft and
winds become east/southeasterly.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures maybe be tied or broken Friday
July 25th. Here are the current records for the day...
EWR 99/2016
BDR 93/2001
NYC 97/1999
LGA 97/1999
JFK 93/2010
ISP 94/1987
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for CTZ005>011.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for NYZ067>075-078>080-176>179.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for NJZ002.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for NJZ004-006-103>108.
Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
evening for NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DBR
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...BC/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...