482
FXUS61 KOKX 251421
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1021 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides east this morning. A cold front will move
through the area late this afternoon and evening. High pressure
briefly builds into the area tonight into Saturday. A weak frontal
system moves across the area Saturday Night into Sunday. High
pressure returns to the area for Monday into Tuesday. A cold front
approaches from the west on Tuesday afternoon and moves offshore
Tuesday evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Key points...
* Heat headlines remain in effect. Heat indices are expected to
reach 100 to 105F for most of the area.
* Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening with damaging wind gusts the primary
threat. There is also a low and localized flash flood threat.
High pressure slides east today allowing a cold front to push across
the region late in the afternoon into this evening. The two main
issues today will be the heat and the storms associated with the
cold frontal passage.
The combination of temperatures well into the 90s, combined
with dew points rising into the lower to middle 70s will result
in heat index values reaching 100-105F for much of the area.
Max temps will likely flirt with daily records. An extreme heat
warning continues for NE NJ with highest confidence in
widespread 105F heat indices, with heat advisories for most of
the remainder of the area with heat indices in the 100 to 105F
range.
A cold front approaches this afternoon and moves across the area
this evening. A prefrontal trough, possible outflow/differential
heating boundary sinking south from the north associated with
morning shower activity across northern NY/central New England, along
with a weak shortwave/vort axis should set the stage for
showers and thunderstorms to develop and move across the area.
00z CAMS and early peak at 12z CAMs are in pretty good
agreement with the timing of the storms, with isolated
development in vicinity of sea breeze/higher terrain as early as
1 or 2pm, and then a sct to possibly bkn line of showers and
thunderstorms approaching for the 3 to 9 pm time period from NW
to SE. CAMs vary on coverage of storms, but moderately unstable
airmass, with marginal deep layer shear present potential for
isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms in the aft/eve.
Primary threat will be damaging wind gusts from wet downbursts
(possibly a few bowing segments) in primarily a uni- directional
WNW flow aloft, high PWAT environment with a bit of mid-level
dry air entrainment potential, and steep low- level lapse rates.
In addition, any storms will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall. While any storms that develop today should have some
movement to them, can not rule out a low threat for flash
flooding. See hydrology section for low and localized flash
flood threat in a 2+ STD PWAT environment ( 2 1/4"-2 1/2"
PWATs).-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front slides SE of the region tonight with high pressure
building back into the region.
Dry conditions expected on Saturday, with noticeably drier and
cooler airmass advecting in on gusty N/NE flow. Temperatures however
will still be running slight above seasonable with highs in the mid
to upper 80s, and heat indices similar. Near seasonable temps for
Saturday night with increasing humidity levels as return flow
develops.
On Sunday there is some uncertainty with the exact evolution and
timing of a weak frontal system that may impact the area. Low
confidence PoPs given the offshore high trending stronger.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected for the second half of
Sunday, mainly west of NYC. Some thunderstorms will be capable of
gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The NBM was largely followed with this update with no major changes.
Key Points:
*High heat and humidity will be on the increase again early to mid
next week. Heat indices look to peak on Tuesday.
*Dry conditions expected until a frontal passage on Tuesday
afternoon which will bring a round of showers/thunderstorms.
Unsettled conditions continue Wednesday and Thursday, with
thunderstorm chances each afternoon.
Good model agreement with upper ridging over the northeast to start
the period as a ridge encompasses the eastern two-thirds of CONUS. A
series of shortwaves moves through the ridging and will impact the
area mid week.
Heights build Monday and Tuesday with sfc high pressure east of the
area. h850 temperatures nearing 18-21C, peaking on Tuesday, will
result in sfc max temperatures in the low to mid 90s (upper 80s at
the coast). With dewpoints increasing to the mid 70s by Tuesday,
heat indices in the low 100s (upper 90s coastal areas) will be
possible. Heat headlines would be needed Monday and Tuesday, and
possible into Wednesday should the current forecast hold.
With the cold frontal passage on Tuesday, a period of afternoon
thunderstorms is possible. Model soundings indicate 500-1000J of
MUCAPE though shear is weak (~20kts). CSU-MLP machine learning
output is highlighting a 15-30% chance of severe thunderstorms from
NYC north and west Tuesday, and details will come into more focus
over the next few days.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through early this afternoon. MVFR or lower visibilities
are likely as TSRA may impact the terminals after 18Z. Strong
gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorm. Have converted
PROB30s to TEMPOs for this activity in the TAF as confidence in
coverage and occurrence has increased.
Southwest winds increase to 10-15kts this AM. Winds then become
NW behind the frontal passage in the late afternoon/evening.
Occasional gusts up to about 20 kt are possible during the
afternoon outside of TSRA.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts up to 20 kt are possible this afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: VFR.
Saturday night - Sunday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible in any
showers or thunderstorms.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR with possible MVFR or lower in showers and
thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Some occasional gusts to 25 kt are possible in a S flow on the ocean
waters today ahead of a cold frontal passage. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and this evening
ahead of a cold frontal passage this evening.
A brief period of 20 kt gusts are possible in wake of cold
frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Given a weak pressure gradient, winds and waves will largely stay
below Small Craft Advisory criteria Sunday through Tuesday.
There is a brief chance of approaching 25kts across the waters
in the vicinity of a cold frontal passage on Tuesday
afternoon/evening.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Primarily a minor urban and poor drainage flooding threat with
thunderstorm activity this afternoon that could produce rainfall
rates of 2+"/hr with PWATS as high as 2"-2 1/2", but will be overall
progressive limiting duration over an one area. Based on these
rainfall rates, there is a low and localized flash flood threat
with any repetitive thunderstorm activity, particularly if the
cold front orients in a more W to E fashion as indicated by some
CAMs. A general 1/4 to 3/4" basin average, with a low and
localized probability for 2-3" in only a couple of hours with
any training.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a frontal system
could produce locally heavy downpours on Sunday that result in
nuisance flooding, but the overall flood threat appears low at
this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk is in effect today with southerly
wind waves building to 3 to 4 ft. A moderate rip current risk
continues for Saturday, though surf heights lessen to 2-3ft and
winds become east/southeasterly.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures maybe be tied or broken Friday
July 25th. Here are the current records for the day...
EWR 99/2016
BDR 93/2001
NYC 97/1999
LGA 97/1999
JFK 93/2010
ISP 94/1987
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>011.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
078>080-176>179.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
103>108.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DBR
NEAR TERM...BC/NV
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...BC/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...