366
FXUS61 KOKX 282334
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
734 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the region through Tuesday, moving
offshore Tuesday night. A cold front moves through Wednesday
night likely stalling in the vicinity. A frontal wave develops
along it and slowly passes by on Thursday and Friday. High
pressure builds into the area Saturday and through early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure builds over the region by tonight, as a
weak upper ridge remains in place. Heat and humidity will be
increasing through early this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The Heat Advisory for much of Northeastern New Jersey Tuesday
was upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning beginning at 1100 AM EDT
and continuing to 800 PM Wednesday. The Heat Advisories for the
remainder of the forecast area remain in effect through 800 PM
Wednesday.
Weak upper ridging remains in place through Tuesday night while
the surface high also remains over the region. With 850mb
temperatures having trended upward to around 22C by late day
Tuesday, high temperatures have also increased a degree or two
across the region as little cloudiness is expected.
Surface temperatures across portions of northeastern New Jersey
are now forecast to reach 100F. With the increased temperatures
a wide area of northeastern New Jersey will have heat indices
of 105 to 106, and the Heat Advisory has been upgraded to an
Extreme Heat Warning beginning at 1100 AM EDT. While heat
indices may fall short of 105 Wednesday, the Extreme Heat
Warning was extended into Wednesday with impacts continuing with
Wednesday the third day of the heat wave. Also, record highs
may be tied or broken. See the CLIMATE section for details. And
with heat indices of at least 95 continuing across the
remainder of the region, the Heat Advisories remain in effect.
Little relief in the heat and humidity is expected Tuesday
night, with lows in the mid to upper 70s, and around 80 in the
New York City metro, and dew points in the upper 60s to lower
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wednesday looks to be the final day of the heat as temperatures
will rise into the low and middle 90s. Dew points in the upper
60s and low 70s will allow heat index values to be generally
95-102, though a few spots near the NYC metro may be a bit
higher. Heat Advisories remain in effect through Wednesday, with
an Extreme Heat Warning for much of northeastern New Jersey
Wednesday.
By late Wednesday, a cold front begins to move into the area
from the northwest. This cold front will likely spark isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms may
be strong to severe with the primary threat being gusty winds.
Heavy rainfall is also possible with these storms. SPC and WPC
have placed much of the area in a marginal risk for severe
storms and excessive rainfall respectively.
The front pushes through the area Wednesday night, but likely
stalls somewhere in the vicinity. This will allow for cooler
temperatures for Thursday but also unsettled conditions to
continue. A frontal wave develops along the stalled boundary and
makes its way through the area late Thursday and into Friday.
This will likely result in additional showers and storms some of
which may be heavy at times. This may result in
hydrologic/flooding concerns as WPC has the area in a slight
risk of excessive rainfall.
After the frontal wave passes by Friday night, high pressure looks
to build into the area once again Saturday and linger through the
beginning of next week. This will result in warming temperatures and
dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control tonight. A frontal boundary or
surface trough approaches and lingers nearby the area on
Tuesday.
VFR for most terminals through the forecast period. KGON may
lower to MVFR or IFR in fog and low stratus tonight.
Additionally, there may be very isolated showers and
thunderstorms that develop Tuesday afternoon, mainly around
NYC. Confidence is too low in this to even include in a PROB30
for now.
Weak flow persists tonight, and general flow turns westerly
Tuesday, with potential for a seabreeze at some terminals which
would make the flow more S or SW.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Lower confidence wind direction forecast than usual given the
frontal boundary/surface trough that will be nearby the
terminals on Tuesday.
Potential for very isolated showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Night: VFR.
Wednesday-Friday: Chances of showers/thunderstorms through much
of this period. Chances peak Thursday afternoon into Friday
morning. Potential for MVFR or lower in any shower/storm.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected tonight through Thursday. By
Thursday night, an increasing E/NE flow will result in SCA
becoming likely on the ocean zones with wind gusts near 25kt and
waves increasing to around 5 feet.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Tuesday night with dry
conditions.
Thunderstorms on Wednesday may result in localized hydrologic
concerns with heavy rainfall rates possible. More persistent and
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is possible Thursday and
Friday where WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall. Flash
flooding may be a concern where the heaviest rainfall sets up.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is an overall low rip current risk for ocean beaches
Tuesday and Wednesday with only 1 to 2 feet offshore wave
heights and a low wind wave contribution.
&&
.CLIMATE...
The following are record high temperatures for July 28
Newark 101/1949
Bridgeport 95/1949
Central Park *97/1999
LaGuardia 98/1949
Kennedy 98/1949
Islip 96/1999
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS
The following are record high temperatures for July 29
Newark 100/1949
Bridgeport 96/2002
Central Park 99/1949
LaGuardia 97/1949
Kennedy 99/2002
Islip 96/2002
The following are record high temperatures for July 30
Newark 101/1949
Bridgeport 95/1949
Central Park *98/1988
LaGuardia 99/1988
Kennedy 96/2002
Islip 95/1988
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS
The following are record high minimum temperatures for Monday,
July 28th through Wednesday, July 30th. Currently the forecast
reflects that records will be approached at some of our climate
sites with respect to the minimum temperatures.
Record Minimum Temperatures for Monday, July 28th
----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........80 (2020)
LaGuardia...........83 (2020)
Kennedy.............79 (2020)
Islip...............77 (2020)
Newark..............80 (2020)
Bridgeport..........77 (2020)
Record Minimum Temperatures for Tuesday, July 29th
----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........79 (2002)
LaGuardia...........82 (2002)
Kennedy.............76 (2022,2002,1995,1949)
Islip...............77 (1995)
Newark..............79 (2002)
Bridgeport..........78 (1995)
Record Minimum Temperatures for Wednesday, July 30th
----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........80 (2002)
LaGuardia...........81 (2019,2002)
Kennedy.............79 (2006,1995)
Islip...............76 (2002)
Newark..............81 (2002)
Bridgeport..........76 (2002)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005>012.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for
CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for
NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
Heat Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ004-006-103>108.
Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
for NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...