220
FXUS61 KOKX 291522
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1122 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains nearby through Wednesday. A cold front
moves through Wednesday night, stalling nearby to the south. A
frontal wave then develops along it and slowly passes by on
Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure begins to press further
south during Friday while building into the region. The high
settles over the area during the weekend and into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Heat and humidity persist today with mid level ridging in place
across the Central and Eastern US today, and weak surface high
pressure centered off to the south.
No headline changes with this update. Heat Advisory remains in
effect for the entire region, with the exception of most of
northeast New Jersey, where an Extreme Heat Warning is in place.
With 850mb temps progged around or just above 20C, and 925 mb temps
in the mid to upper 20s, afternoon surface temperatures likely can
climb into the low to mid 90s for most away from the immediate
coastline, and upper 90s in the urban metro, including NYC. A few
locales in NE NJ could touch triple digits.
Similar to Monday, expecting dew pts to mix down a good 3 to 5
degrees under national blended guidance, but temperatures into the
90s and dew pts at least in the mid to upper 60s should allow heat
indices to approach or exceed 100F across much of the region.
Warning areas likely top 105F. Daily record highs are possible
at some sites as well. See the Climate section further down for
more detail.
Light WSW surface flow, or SW along the coast, expected thru
the day under mostly sunny skies. While omitted from forecast,
can`t entirely rule out a pop up shower this afternoon with some
subtle low level convergence as a weak boundary or surface
trough moves through, but cap appears sufficient to mitigate
anything more significant.
Limited overnight relief, with lows in the 70s, or near 80 in and
around the NYC metro. Conditions remain dry, under relatively clear
skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
One last day of high heat and humidity expected Wednesday.
Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning continue for respective zones
with similar conditions expected relative to Tuesday, though heat
indices may fall just shy of 105F in warning locales Wednesday.
By late Wednesday, a cold front begins to move into the area from
the northwest, likely building cu and eventually initiating showers
and thunderstorms ahead of the advancing boundary. Some of
these storms could be strong to severe, with the primary threat
being damaging wind gusts. Heavy rainfall is also possible with
this activity, and could result in localized nuisance flooding.
SPC and WPC each have the region in a marginal risk for severe
weather and excessive rainfall.
The front attempts to push through the area Wednesday night, but
likely stalls somewhere in the vicinity. Cooler temperatures
usher in by Thursday, but unsettled conditions continue as a
frontal wave develops along the stalled boundary and makes its
way through the area late Thursday and into Friday. This will
result in additional showers and storms, which likely falls
heavy at times with deep tropical air mass in place. Still
disagreements with global ensembles on placement of axis of
heaviest rainfall though, which will need to be resolved, but
up to several inches of QPF possible where the axis sets up.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some shower activity is likely early on Friday, with activity
decreasing in all likelihood for the afternoon and evening as the
frontal boundary with associated low pressure begins to get
suppressed to the south and east. Cooler and noticeably drier air
will work in out of southeastern Canada as a rare late summer high
builds down and delivers drier conditions with noticeably lower
humidity into the weekend.
Any mid level energy gets off the Mid Atlantic coast during the
first half of Friday. There remains a good number of global guidance
members keeping rain / shower activity around through a good portion
of Friday morning, especially further east. The consensus appears to
be that the activity decreases with gradual improvement Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. Guidance consensus has clearing skies
Friday night into Saturday morning. Saturday morning will have a
hint of early fall to it with temperatures to start in the upper
half of the 60s to around 70 on a north wind with clear skies.
Northern and northwestern interior locations for both Saturday and
Sunday mornings will have temperatures down into the upper half of
the 50s. Temperatures Saturday afternoon recover to close to 80,
which is about 5 degrees or so below average for the start of
August. Temperatures should then slowly warm later in the period
into Sunday and Monday with afternoon max temperatures likely
returning to seasonable levels into the lower and middle 80s. Went
with the NBM throughout the period as its output seemed to go well
with mass fields.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure remains in control through the TAF period. A
surface trough will linger nearby today.
VFR through the forecast period. There may be an isolated shower or
thunderstorm that develops this afternoon, mainly around NYC.
Confidence remains too low at this time to include a mention in
TAFs. Thus will continue with VFR conditions prevailing.
Winds continue to turn more W / WSW late this morning, with
potential for a seabreeze at some terminals which turns the flow
more S or SW, especially for the more coastal terminals. Winds
go light and mostly variable towards late evening, with many
terminals going.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Lower confidence wind direction forecast than usual given the
frontal boundary/surface trough that will be nearby the terminals
today.
Cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm
this afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday-Thursday night: Mainly VFR through the day Wednesday.
Chances of showers/thunderstorms through much of this period
beginning Wednesday evening. Chances peak Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night. Potential for MVFR or lower in any shower/storm.
Friday: sub VFR likely in AM, conditions improve to VFR for the
afternoon and evening.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through Thursday night.
Small craft conditions are likely on the ocean Friday, with marginal
small craft conditions for the eastern non-ocean waters. As high
pressure builds and the pressure gradient decreases, look for sub
advisory conditions to arrive quickly Friday night on the non-ocean
waters. Seas are currently progged to linger near 5 ft on the
central and eastern ocean waters Friday night into Saturday morning,
otherwise with the high building over the waters through the weekend
look for sub advisory seas to return to the ocean by Saturday
afternoon and remain in place through the remainder of the
weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Wednesday night may
result in localized hydrologic concerns. More persistent and
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is possible Thursday into
Friday. WPC has outlined the entire region in a slight risk of
excessive rainfall, and localized to isolated areas of flash
flooding could develop where the heaviest axis of rainfall sets
up. Otherwise, anticipating more of a nuisance flood threat,
particularly in the typical urban and poor drainage areas.
Dry weather returns late Friday and into the weekend with no
additional hydrologic concerns for the weekend into early next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is an overall low rip current risk for ocean beaches today and
Wednesday with only 1 to 2 feet offshore wave heights and a low wind
wave contribution.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for Tuesday, July 29
----------------------------------------------------
Newark 100/1949
Bridgeport 96/2002
Central Park 99/1949
LaGuardia 97/1949
Kennedy 99/2002
Islip 96/2002
Record High Temperatures for Wednesday, July 30
----------------------------------------------------
Newark 101/1949
Bridgeport 95/1949
Central Park *98/1988
LaGuardia 99/1988
Kennedy 96/2002
Islip 95/1988
* Also occurred in previous years
The following are record high minimum temperatures through
Wednesday, July 30.
Record Minimum Temperatures for Tuesday, July 29
----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........79 (2002)
LaGuardia...........82 (2002)
Kennedy.............76 (2022,2002,1995,1949)
Islip...............77 (1995)
Newark..............79 (2002)
Bridgeport..........78 (1995)
Record Minimum Temperatures for Wednesday, July 30
----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........80 (2002)
LaGuardia...........81 (2019,2002)
Kennedy.............79 (2006,1995)
Islip...............76 (2002)
Newark..............81 (2002)
Bridgeport..........76 (2002)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005>012.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
Heat Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NJZ004-006-
103>108.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JE/DR
HYDROLOGY...JE/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...