528
FXUS61 KOKX 292344
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
744 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will remain in control into Wednesday. A cold
front will then slowly approach from the northwest Wednesday
night, stalling nearby on Thursday. A frontal wave then develops
Thursday night, and passes to the south and east through Friday
evening. High pressure builds in from the northwest Saturday,
and moves offshore Sunday. The high remains offshore into early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Heat headlines remain unchanged with advisories for all but NE
NJ (minus western Passaic), where there is an extreme heat
warning.
A warm upper ridge encompassing the southern two thirds of the
country will begin to get suppressed southward in coming days
as heights fall in response to an upper trough across eastern
Canada. In the meantime, hot and humid conditions will persist
into Wednesday in a deep-layered westerly flow. 85H temps will
remain around 20C.
Lows tonight will generally be in the 70s with a few locations
across the NYC/NJ metro getting no lower than 80. This combined
with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s will continue to
make even the nighttime hours uncomfortable.
High on Wednesday will be very close to what we experienced on
Tuesday, with the upper 80s to lower 90s near the coast, and
the mid to upper 90s elsewhere. A few locations may eclipse 100,
especially across urban NE NJ. Readings will be close to
records for some locations.
Widely scattered to scattered convection will be a possibility
in the afternoon, mainly north and west of the NYC metro.
Strengthening mid-level flow and marginal CAPE will support a
few strong and/or severe storms. However, LFCs will be high with
a mid/upper level warm nose. There is also not much of trigger
outside of a thermal trough and differential heating across the
hills north and west. The cold front will remain well northwest
of the area at this time. SPC has the area under a marginal
risk for severe with the main threat being damaging wind gusts.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday night,
interacting with a marginally unstable airmass with gradually
falling heights. Then limiting factor will be the loss of
daytime instability and better forcing to the north of the
forecast area. Expect scattered coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. The better chance looks to be after midnight as
the front begins to enter the far northwest zones. Widespread
showers and possible thunderstorms looks to be later on
Thursday.
Wednesday night will remain warm and humid with lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s and similar dew points.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will be moving through the region during Thursday, and
then stall somewhere to the south of New York City and Long Island.
A frontal wave develops and passes slowly to the south and east
during late Thursday night into Friday evening. There will be the
potential for moderate to heavy rainfall across much of the region
late Thursday through Friday with the combination of an upper level
right rear jet passing to the north, and the frontal boundary and
wave of low pressure to the south. The flow will be nearly zonal,
with a storm motion west to west/northwest, and any showers and
convection training over the same areas, enhancing rainfall totals.
See the HYDROLOGY section for details on rainfall and potential
impacts. Also, there is a thunderstorm potential with the best
instability and CAPE near and south of wherever the frontal boundary
sets up. With this uncertainty have used coverage wording for
thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.
Weak upper ridging begins to build late Friday night into Saturday
with surface high pressure approaching from the northwest. This high
will settle over the region Saturday and move offshore Sunday. Dew
points will be falling into the 50s for Saturday and Sunday, and
slowly increase into the beginning of next week as a weak return
flow sets up. With the high moving in temperatures will return to
near seasonal normal levels Saturday into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak surface trough remains over the area tonight. A cold
front then gradually approaches on Wednesday.
Generally looking at VFR through the forecast period. However,
there is potential for some showers/thunderstorms to bring MVFR
or lower vsbys Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Confidence has
increased at KSWF so a TEMPO has been included in the TAF.
Elsewhere went PROB30 for now.
Winds go light and variable tonight. Winds pick up out of the
S/SW on Wednesday up to 10 kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence wind direction forecast tonight, but winds will
be light, 5 kt or less.
Higher confidence in thunder tomorrow is at KTEB and KLGA,
uncertainty if any activity gets farther south than that.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: Mainly VFR, chances of showers.
Thursday: Rain chances peak Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night. Potential for MVFR or lower in any shower/storm.
Friday: MVFR or lower in AM, conditions improve to VFR for the
afternoon and evening.
Saturday and Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through Thursday night. A wave of low pressure
developing on a stalled front south of Long Island late Thursday
night will deepen and pass south and east through Friday
evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to develop
on the ocean waters during Friday and then continue into Friday
night. Once the wave passes to the east conditions will be
improving west to east, falling below advisory levels late
Friday night into Saturday morning. There is also a chance of 25
kt gusts on the far eastern Long Island Sound waters during
Friday evening into Friday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Wednesday.
More persistent and widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is
possible Thursday afternoon into Friday. WPC has outlined the entire
region in a slight risk of excessive rainfall Thursday into Friday
morning, and localized to isolated areas of flash flooding could
develop where the heaviest axis of rainfall sets up. Currently there
is the potential for 2 to 3 inches across the lower Hudson Valley
into northeastern New Jersey, and 1 to 2 inches farther south and
east. Some areas could receive higher amounts. There remains some
uncertainty as to where this axis will be. Otherwise, anticipating
more of a nuisance flood threat, particularly in the typical urban
and poor drainage areas.
Dry weather returns Friday evening and continues into the beginning
of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is an overall low rip current risk for ocean beaches
through Thursday due to a 1 ft S/SE swell and 1 to 2 ft wind
waves.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for Tuesday, July 29
----------------------------------------------------
Newark 100/1949 *New record high of 101 reported*
Bridgeport 96/2002
Central Park 99/1949
LaGuardia 97/1949 *New record high of 100 reported*
Kennedy 99/2002
Islip 96/2002 *Tied Record high today*
Record High Temperatures for Wednesday, July 30
----------------------------------------------------
Newark 101/1949
Bridgeport 95/1949
Central Park *98/1988
LaGuardia 99/1988
Kennedy 96/2002
Islip 95/1988
* Also occurred in previous years
Record Minimum Temperatures for Wednesday, July 30
----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........80 (2002)
LaGuardia...........81 (2019,2002)
Kennedy.............79 (2006,1995)
Islip...............76 (2002)
Newark..............81 (2002)
Bridgeport..........76 (2002)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005>012.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
078>081-176>179.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...