268
FXUS61 KOKX 301822
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
222 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly approach the area today, arriving
tonight, then stalling nearby or over the area into Thursday. A
frontal wave then develops late Thursday and passes to the south
and east through Friday evening. High pressure settles over the
region this weekend and remains in place into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
At the surface, weak high pressure offshore loses its influence as a
cold front approaches the area. A prefrontal trough arrives late
this afternoon/evening followed by a slow-moving cold front which
looks to stall nearby or over the area late tonight.
Aloft, an upper-low moves east through Quebec, leading to gradually
falling heights today into tonight and a flatter, more zonal flow.
Some 00Z guidance hint a subtle shortwave may pass within this flow
this afternoon/evening.
Prior to the arrival of a pre-frontal trough, one more day of warmer
temperatures is expected. 850mb temps remain around 20C which is
about 6C above the average. Highs are currently projected to be in
the low/mid 90s for much of the area while spots around the NYC
metro may reach the mid/upper 90s. Areas in urban NE NJ looks to
fall solidly in the upper 90s. Given midday and afternoon dewpoints
fall in the upper 60s to low 70s, heat indices will range between 99
to 102 for much of the area. Some coastal spots may only reach 95 to
99 aided by a sea breeze. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the
entire area, except in NE NJ, where an Extreme Heat Warning has been
carried. Here, heat indices could reach 105.
As a prefrontal trough arrives, timed in tandem with a subtle
shortwave passing aloft, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. The primary
area will be N & W of NYC, with only slight chances down to the
coast. SPC has the area in a Marginal Risk for a few storms may
possibly reaching severe criteria for winds/hail. However,
while instability looks good, other parameters like bulk shear
and mid- level lapse rates look poor, in addition to a weak
trigger for these storms.
Following the prefrontal trough, a slow-moving cold front will
arrive and stall over the area late tonight. Given the weak nature
of the front and the loss of daytime heating, it looks likely we`ll
stay dry into the night, tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A stalled front is expected to linger over the area Thursday into
Friday. A low will develop to our southwest and gradually track west
and then south of the area through this time period. Friday night,
this low will exit out to sea, clearing any lingering rain.
The synoptic pattern looks good for a prolonged rainfall event with
the area under the right entrance of a jet streak Thursday through
Friday with shortwave energy passing aloft. Instability does not
look particularly strong Thursday through Friday. Still anticipating
convection, but confidence in persistent heavy downpours is low.
Despite this, WPC does still have the area under a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall. PWATs will range from 1.75-2.25" through this
period.
Following a dry Wednesday night, rainfall should start Thursday
morning, becoming more widespread late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night. Rainfall should gradually clear north Thursday
evening into early Thursday night.
Temperatures will cool significantly Thursday into Friday,
compared to Wednesday. Highs reach the mid to low 80s on
Thursday then remain limited to the upper 60s to low 70s on
Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cooler and noticeably drier air will work in out of southeastern
Canada as a rare late summer high builds down and delivers drier
conditions with noticeably lower humidity into the weekend. Saturday
morning will have a hint of early fall to it with temperatures to
start in the middle 60s to around 70 on a north to northeast wind
with clear skies. Northern and northwestern interior locations for
both Saturday and Sunday mornings will have temperatures down into
the middle and upper 50s. Temperatures Saturday afternoon recover to
close to 80, which is about 5 degrees or so below average for the
start of August. Temperatures should then slowly warm into next week
with afternoon max temperatures likely returning to seasonable
levels into the lower and middle 80s. Went with the NBM guidance
throughout the period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front moves into the region tonight and stalls out within the
area Thursday.
Outside of showers and thunderstorms, expecting mainly VFR
conditions before 12Z Thursday. The showers and thunderstorms are
possible across western terminals from KBDR on west within the 20Z
to 00Z time window. Brief MVFR to possibly IFR conditions are
possible with some thunderstorms.
For 12Z Thursday through the end of the TAF period, more showers and
potential thunderstorms are expected to develop and become a greater
coverage for the latter half of the day. MVFR will be possible
early, eventually becoming likely after 18Z Thursday. Brief IFR
will be possible as well with some thunderstorms.
Regarding winds, southerly flow near 10 kt, except near 15 kt for
KJFK expected this afternoon into early evening. Then winds become
light at 5 kts or less with variable direction for the rest of
tonight and into early Thursday morning. Thereafter, winds become
more NE-E near 10 kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Higher confidence with TSRA for TEB and EWR, less confidence with
TSRA for LGA and JFK for late this afternoon into early this
evening.
Timing of showers and thunderstorms could be off by 1-2 hours
compared to forecast.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night: MVFR to IFR. Heavy showers
and embedded thunderstorms. Occasional E gust to near 15-20 kt.
Friday: MVFR to IFR. Heavy showers and isolated embedded
thunderstorms, mainly early, becoming less intense by mid to
late day. Showers taper off at night. NE wind gusts near 15-20
kt.
Saturday: VFR. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt early becoming less frequent
in the afternoon. All wind gusts diminish by evening.
Sunday and Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through Thursday night. A wave of low pressure developing
on a stalled front south of Long Island late Thursday night will
deepen and pass south and east through Friday evening. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are likely to develop on the ocean waters during
Friday and then continue into Friday night. Once the wave passes to
the east, conditions will be improving west to east, falling below
advisory level winds Friday night while waves may not drop below
advisory levels on ocean waters through Friday night.
Ocean seas are currently progged to linger near 5 to 6 ft early
Saturday morning, otherwise with the high building over the waters
through the weekend look for sub advisory seas to return all ocean
waters by Saturday afternoon and evening with seas settling closer
to 3 to 4 ft. Sub advisory conditions will prevail on Sunday with
ocean seas averaging close to 3 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Wednesday.
More persistent and widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is
possible Thursday afternoon into Friday. WPC has outlined the entire
region in a slight risk of excessive rainfall Thursday into Friday
morning, and localized to isolated areas of flash flooding could
develop where the heaviest axis of rainfall sets up. Currently there
is the potential for 2 to 3 inches across the lower Hudson Valley
into northeastern New Jersey, and 1 to 2 inches farther south and
east. Some areas could receive higher amounts. There remains some
uncertainty as to where this axis will be. Otherwise, anticipating
more of a nuisance flood threat, particularly in the typical urban
and poor drainage areas.
Dry weather returns Friday night with no hydrologic concerns
through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is an overall low rip current risk for ocean beaches
through Thursday due to a 1 ft S/SE swell and 1 to 2 ft wind
waves.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for Wednesday, July 30
----------------------------------------------------
Newark 101/1949
Bridgeport 95/1949
Central Park *98/1988
LaGuardia 99/1988
Kennedy 96/2002
Islip 95/1988
* Also occurred in previous years
Record Minimum Temperatures for Wednesday, July 30
----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........80 (2002)
LaGuardia...........81 (2019,2002)
Kennedy.............79 (2006,1995)
Islip...............76 (2002)
Newark..............81 (2002)
Bridgeport..........76 (2002)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...