654
FXUS61 KOKX 302023
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
423 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly moves across the region tonight, stalling
south of the region on Thursday. A wave of low pressure travels
along the front impacting the area Thursday afternoon through
Friday. High pressure settles over the region this weekend and
remains in place into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key Points:
* Heat warnings and advisories continue through 8pm. Heat index
values remain in the middle and upper 90s to lower 100s.
* Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this evening, mainly north and west of NYC.
* A cold front moves across the region tonight, ending the
heatwave.
A few showers and thunderstorms will continue into the early
evening along a weak surface trough. Most the shower activity
will remain north and west of NYC, gradually dissipating towards
sunset. A cold front approaches from the north, and slowly drops
southward moving across much of the CWA overnight. this will
bring an end to hot and humid conditions we have seen over the
last 3 days. Forecast models bring the front through mainly dry
tonight. Will keep conditions mainly dry tonight. It will remain
rather mild tonight, with lows in the upper 60s and 70s. Metro
NJ/NYC should see another night of upper 70s for lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:
* A Flood Watch is in effect from 2pm Thursday til 2pm Friday.
* A period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall is possible
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. A widespread 1-3
inches of rain is likely, with locally higher amounts.
Rainfall rates could exceed 2+ inches across part of the area.
There is increasing confidence for a period of moderate to
locally heavy rainfall Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as
a frontal boundary remains south of the region and a wave of
low pressure travels along the front.
Latest 12z hi-res guidance has come into better agreement and
was a bit concerning with QPF values exceeding 6+ inches of
rain in a short period of time across portions of western and
central NJ. While the heaviest rainfall threat remains outside
the CWA, a minor shift could bring the heaviest rain into our
CWA. Also, mid-level frontogenetic forcing could result in
bands of rainfall, across the northern portion of the CWA. There
is still some uncertainty with respect to exactly where the
surface front stalls, a little further north and the heaviest
rain could fall over portions of metro NJ/NYC. This will have to
be monitored. Also, PWATs values are expected to be between
2.0-2.5. WPC excessive rainfall maps now include NE NJ in a
moderate risk, with the remaining area in a slight risk.
Otherwise, expect a mostly cloudy Thursday with highs in the
upper 70s and 80s. Thursday night, temperatures fall into the
upper 50s and 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The frontal system just south of the area on Friday will continue to
produce areas of moderate rainfall during the day, especially
earlier in the morning. The frontal wave will slowly translate east
with rain gradually tapering off from west to east Friday afternoon
and into the evening. Given the persistent E/NE flow and ample cloud
cover with rainfall, highs on Friday will be well below average with
temperatures only in the upper 60s to low 70s.
By Friday evening and into early Saturday, an area of high pressure
will build into the Northeast US from the Great Lakes and south
central Canada. This will promote drier and clearer conditions for
the weekend with temperatures rebounding to near normal for this
time of the year. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper
70s to low 80s. By Sunday and Monday, highs will increase into the
low to middle 80s for much of the area with generally clear skies.
This area of high pressure will remain in control from Saturday
through Monday or Tuesday of next week. A frontal system may
approach the area late Tuesday into Wednesday providing for the next
chance of precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front moves into the region tonight and stalls out within the
area Thursday.
Outside of showers and thunderstorms, expecting mainly VFR
conditions before 12Z Thursday. The showers and thunderstorms are
possible across western terminals from KBDR on west mainly before
00Z. Brief MVFR to possibly IFR conditions are possible with some
thunderstorms. Possible brief gusty wind and small hail also
possible.
For 12Z Thursday through the end of the TAF period, more showers and
potential thunderstorms are expected to develop and become a greater
coverage for the latter half of the day. MVFR will be possible
early, eventually becoming likely after 18Z Thursday for the 30 hour
TAF sites. Brief IFR will be possible as well with some
thunderstorms.
Regarding winds, southerly flow near 10 kt, except near 15 kt for
KJFK expected this afternoon into early evening. Then winds become
light at 5 kts or less with variable direction for the rest of
tonight and into early Thursday morning. Thereafter, winds become
more NE-E near 10 kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Higher confidence with TSRA for TEB and EWR, less confidence with
TSRA for LGA and JFK. Left mention as PROB30s to cover the chance of
the pop-up thunderstorm.
Timing of showers and thunderstorms could be more confined within
the 22-00Z timeframe.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday afternoon-Thursday night: MVFR to IFR. Heavy showers and
embedded thunderstorms. Occasional E gust to near 15-20 kt.
Friday: MVFR to IFR. Heavy showers and thunderstorms early, becoming
less intense by mid to late day. Showers taper off at night. NE
wind gusts near 15-20 kt.
Saturday: VFR. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt early becoming less frequent
in the afternoon. All wind gusts diminish by evening.
Sunday-Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through Thursday night. A wave of low pressure developing
on a stalled front over or nearby the area waters may result in
conditions building to near Small Craft levels.
Small craft advisory conditions will overtake the area on Friday
with E/NE wind gusts 25-30kt. Waves on the ocean will be increasing
through the day with heights of 5-7 feet by Friday afternoon. Sub-
SCA conditions may drop off the sheltered waters by Friday evening
with gusts weakening but remaining on the ocean for marginal gusts
and elevated seas through at least Saturday afternoon/evening.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
* Flood Watch in effect from 2pm Thursday through 2pm Friday.
A widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected Thursday
afternoon into Friday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with
localized amounts up to 5 inches across the southwestern
portions of the CWA will be possible. Rainfall rates could
exceed 2+ inches per hour.
WPC has outlined the entire region in a slight risk of
excessive rainfall for much of the area, with a moderate risk
for NE NJ. Urban, poor drainage and riverine flash flooding
will be possible.
Dry weather returns Friday night with no hydrologic concerns
through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is an overall low rip current risk for ocean beaches through
Thursday due to a 1 ft S/SE swell and 1 to 2 ft wind waves. Rip
currents likely increase to moderate by Friday given increased waves
and a persistent 15-20kt E/NE flow.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for Wednesday, July 30
----------------------------------------------------
Newark 101/1949
Bridgeport 95/1949
Central Park *98/1988
LaGuardia 99/1988
Kennedy 96/2002
Islip 95/1988
* Also occurred in previous years
Record Minimum Temperatures for Wednesday, July 30
----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........80 (2002)
LaGuardia...........81 (2019,2002)
Kennedy.............79 (2006,1995)
Islip...............76 (2002)
Newark..............81 (2002)
Bridgeport..........76 (2002)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon
for CTZ005>012.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon
for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002.
Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon
for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...