092
FXUS61 KOKX 010010
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
810 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure travels along a slow moving frontal
boundary through Friday morning. High pressure builds in behind
the exiting system late Friday and remains in control through
the first half of next week. Unsettled weather may return by
late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Severe threat has ended with higher instability shifted farther
south of the region. Earlier showers and thunderstorms have
cooled the low levels, providing greater stability. The severe
thunderstorm watch that was in effect for Union NJ, Essex NJ,
and Hudson NJ as well as NYC, NY Harbor and western ocean waters
has been cancelled.
The frontal boundary appears to be just south of Long Island.
The observations across the land parts of the forecast region
are all pretty much from the east to northeast.
The flash flood threat is quickly waning as well, primarily
relegated to southern Suffolk County at this time. At this time,
two main areas of showers and thunderstorms remain. Moderate to
locally heavy rain, with isolated tstms across portions of the
Lower Hudson Valley into interior Southern CT, while deeper
convection producing heavy downpours and thunderstorms along the
south shore of Suffolk County closer to the cold front. The
convection south of Long Island is giving some coastal sections
very heavy rain.
More shower development is expected with the approach of a wave
of low pressure tonight. But it appears with the increasing
stability and cooling NE flow, the capability for torrential
downpours will continue to decrease through this evening, with
additional heavy rainfall becoming more isolated less likely
late this evening into overnight.
The flood watch will likely be taken down later this evening if
trends hold.
As the evening progresses, the frontal boundary is forecast to
gradually sink farther south of the region while at the same
time the developing wave rides along it to the northeast. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will gradually decrease from northwest
to southeast tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The front will continue to gradually sink south during the day
on Friday as the low exits to the east. Any lingering rainfall
Friday morning will come to an end, with likely only a few
lingering showers across far eastern Long Island and southeast
Connecticut by afternoon. Skies will clear through the day as
high pressure begins to build in from the northwest.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Friday, with highs
only rising into the mid 70s. Under mostly clear skies,
overnight lows will range from the mid 50s in typically colder
outlying locations to the mid 60s in NYC.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure and zonal flow aloft will result in dry
weather and seasonable temperatures through at least Tuesday.
Thereafter, an upper trough over the Midwest begins to push east
towards the region on Wednesday, with rain chances returning to
the area Wednesday night into Thursday.
Followed the NBM with little change during this period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will be situated south of the area through Friday
morning. High pressure begins to build in Friday afternoon.
Thunderstorm activity has generally ended for the remainder of
the forecast period, though an isolated thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out through 02Z. A lull in shower activity for the metro
terminals before shower activity moves back in tonight,
generally by 04Z +/- a couple of hours.
Expect MVFR conditions to transition to high end IFR tonight.
Conditions slowly improve Friday morning, and more so Friday
afternoon with a return to VFR as the cold front slowly moves
offshore and then high pressure builds in behind it.
NNE to ENE winds 10-20 kts with gusts to around 25 kts to start
out. Gusts may be more occasional through 04Z and an isolated
gust to around 30 kt is possible. Winds shift more to the NE
tonight and are expected to remain gusty into early Friday
afternoon before diminishing by mid to late afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for changes in flight rule categories through
Friday morning. Gusts may be more occasional through 04Z, with
occasional gusts to around 30 kt possible, especially for KLGA.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night: VFR. NE winds around 10 kt with gusts to around 15
kt early.
Saturday-Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on all waters from this
evening through Friday evening. Winds will become ENE this
evening and increase, with gusts to around 30 kt expected on
the ocean waters and 25 kt elsewhere. Seas will also begin to
build, reaching 5 ft on the ocean by daybreak Friday. Winds will
subside Friday evening, but seas could remain elevated through
Saturday morning. Thereafter, sub-SCA conditions are expected
on all waters through early next week as high pressure remains
in control.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 2 inches with scattered
amounts of 3-4" have been observed across NE NJ, NYC, and Long
Island this afternoon into evening, resulting in scattered
areas of flash flooding.
The flash flood risk is quickly coming to and end this evening.
However, there could very well still be residual flooding and
ponding of water in parts of the region from earlier heavy
rainfall later tonight. Scattered areas of minor urban and poor
drainage flooding are possible overnight as additional bands of
moderate to locally heavy showers rotate through, with maximum
rainfall rates of up to 1"/hr.
Dry weather returns Friday night with no hydrologic concerns
through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is moderate to high risk for rip current development at
the ocean beachfront, predominantly from a strong e to w
longshore current from 5-7ft ENE wind waves. This will
generally only produce a 1 to 3 ft breaking surf. A high risk
has been forecast for the eastern LI beaches, based on
climatology, and likely higher breaking wave in the 2 to 4 ft
range with a bit more orthogonal impact.
Wind swell is expected to subside a bit on Saturday, but
becoming a bit more due easterly, maintaining a moderate to
high risk of rip current development along the ocean beaches and
a more widespread 2 to 3 ft breaking surf.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
Flood Watch through Friday morning for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch through Friday morning for NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday
evening for NYZ081.
NJ...Flood Watch through Friday morning for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FEB
NEAR TERM...FEB/JM/BR
SHORT TERM...FEB
LONG TERM...FEB
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...FEB
HYDROLOGY...FEB/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...