842
FXUS61 KOKX 011817
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
217 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains in control through midweek before a frontal
system approaches toward week`s end.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A frontal boundary continues to shift south of the area while high
pressure builds in from the northeast. The pressure gradient is
gradually weakening leading to a lightening E/NE flow. A longwave
upper level trough remains across much of the east coast of the US
and up into eastern Canada.

Some clearing is finally making its way towards the area so some
breaks of sun are expected through the afternoon and evening.

This will be the first of several cooler nights coming up. With
winds lightening and skies clearing earlier for the interior,
thinking they have the better shot at some lower 50s low
temperatures tonight. Elsewhere upper 50s to mid 60s is expected.
Blended in CONSMOS with the NBM to get these temperatures across the
interior.

High pressure settles over the area on Saturday with sunny to mostly
sunny skies expected. Given the cooler airmass, temperatures likely
only reach the low 80s. Late day seabreeze is likely.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure remains in control Saturday night through Monday.
Expect more days of dry weather, plenty of sun and cooler
nights. The NBM was closely followed, except for blending in
some CONSMOS for lows.

Upper level trough axis shifts east and heights rise a bit
Sunday into Monday. The cooler airmass begins to modify and
highs will be back in the mid 80s to low 90s by Monday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The NBM was largely followed with this update with no major changes.

Key Points:

* Generally dry conditions are expected through Thursday. A frontal
  system then approaches toward the end of the week.

* Seasonable temperatures through the period with highs in the 80s
  and lower humidity that in recent days.

A decent stretch of sensible weather is in store for the extended as
global models and their respective ensembles advertise a building
upper ridge and high pressure at the surface much of the period.
With strong ridging over the Four Corners region, a few weak
shortwaves will pass through the northeast ridge during the period
without much fanfare. The flow attempts to flatten some by late
Thursday into Friday, as the surface high retreats to the south and
a front approaches from the OH Valley. Slight chance PoPs for Friday
associated with this front, which seems reasonable this far out.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure will build in from the northwest into Saturday.

Terminals are all expected to improve to VFR around 20Z.

NE winds around 10 kt with a few gusts 15-20 kt early, will
gradually diminish through this evening. Highest winds are expected
at KGON this afternoon. Onshore flow develops at the coastal
terminals on Saturday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Improvement to VFR this afternoon may vary by 1-2 hours.

Winds may vary to the E for a time this afternoon. There is also a
low chance for a seabreeze.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Afternoon-Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for only the ocean waters
as seas are still as high as 8 feet from a consistent 15-20kt E/NE
flow. The Advisory expires at 11 AM Saturday morning. Sub SCA
conditions are then likely the rest of Saturday through next week
with high pressure in control and a weak pressure gradient over the
waters.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There will be a high rip current risk through this evening for the
ocean beaches predominantly from a strong E to W longshore
current from 5-7ft ENE wind waves. The risk then decreases to
moderate on Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DBR/JT
HYDROLOGY...DBR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...