702
FXUS61 KOKX 020105
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
905 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through midweek before a frontal
system approaches toward week`s end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A frontal boundary continues to shift south of the area while high
pressure builds in from the northeast. The pressure gradient is
gradually weakening leading to a lightening E/NE flow. A longwave
upper level trough remains across much of the east coast of the US
and up into eastern Canada.

This will be the first of several cooler nights coming up. With
winds lightening and skies clearing earlier for the interior,
thinking they have the better shot at some lower 50s low
temperatures tonight. Elsewhere upper 50s to mid 60s is
expected. Blended in CONSMOS with the NBM to get these
temperatures across the interior.

High pressure settles over the area on Saturday with sunny to
mostly sunny skies expected. Given the cooler airmass,
temperatures likely only reach the low 80s. Late day seabreeze
is likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains in control Saturday night through Monday.
Expect more days of dry weather, plenty of sun and cooler
nights. The NBM was closely followed, except for blending in
some CONSMOS for lows.

Upper level trough axis shifts east and heights rise a bit
Sunday into Monday. The cooler airmass begins to modify and
highs will be back in the mid 80s to low 90s by Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The NBM was largely followed with this update with no major changes.

Key Points:

* Generally dry conditions are expected through Thursday. A frontal
  system then approaches toward the end of the week.

* Seasonable temperatures through the period with highs in the 80s
  and lower humidity that in recent days.

A decent stretch of sensible weather is in store for the extended as
global models and their respective ensembles advertise a building
upper ridge and high pressure at the surface much of the period.
With strong ridging over the Four Corners region, a few weak
shortwaves will pass through the northeast ridge during the period
without much fanfare. The flow attempts to flatten some by late
Thursday into Friday, as the surface high retreats to the south and
a front approaches from the OH Valley. Slight chance PoPs for Friday
associated with this front, which seems reasonable this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build in from the northwest into Saturday.

VFR.

NE winds 5 to 10 kt will gradually back to N this evening, and
possibly become light and variable at most locations, and become
light NE Saturday morning. An onshore flow develops at the
coastal terminals during Saturday afternoon.


     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night - Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for only the ocean waters
as seas are still as high as 8 feet from a consistent 15-20kt E/NE
flow. The Advisory expires at 11 AM Saturday morning. Sub SCA
conditions are then likely the rest of Saturday through next week
with high pressure in control and a weak pressure gradient over the
waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
The rip current risk for the ocean beaches is moderate for
Saturday, and low for Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$