518
FXUS61 KOKX 020613
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
213 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through midweek before a
frontal system approaches toward week`s end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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High pressure continues to build into the area from the west with
flow becoming light and variable for much of the area this morning.
Some patchy fog is possible early this morning with some interior
locations radiationally cooling into the upper 50s to low 60s. A
much drier and cooler airmass is associated with this high pressure
system. This will allow for comfortable temperatures today with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and dewpoints in the 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The mostly clear, dry, and relatively calm conditions will persist
through much of the short term forecast as high pressure continues
to shift into the area this weekend. The high will gradually settle
over the area by Monday.

The clear conditions with generally light flow will allow for
dewpoints to remain in the upper 50s to low 60s through Monday. High
temperatures will gradually increase through Monday with highs on
Sunday in the low to middle 80s and highs on Monday in the upper 80s
to low 90s. Despite the increase in temperatures, lower dewpoints
will make the heat much more bearable.

Clear skies and light flow will provide for ideal radiational
cooling conditions at night so lows will be generally on the cooler
side. Lows Saturday night are expected to be in the 50s for inland
areas and low 60s for the coast. Lows by Sunday night will increase
a bit with interior areas cooling to the upper 50s and coastal areas
cooling to the middle to upper 60s. Patchy fog will be possible each
night, especially in cooler spots for the interior.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The NBM was largely followed with this update with no major changes.

Key Points:

* Generally dry conditions are expected through Thursday. A frontal
  system then approaches toward the end of the week.

* Seasonable temperatures through the period with highs in the 80s
  and lower humidity than in recent days.

A decent stretch of sensible weather is in store for the extended as
global models and their respective ensembles advertise a building
upper ridge and high pressure at the surface much of the period.
With strong ridging over the Four Corners region, a few weak
shortwaves will pass through the northeast ridge during the period
without much fanfare. The flow attempts to flatten some by late
Thursday into Friday, as the surface high retreats to the south and
a front approaches from the OH Valley. Slight chance PoPs for Friday
associated with this front, which seems reasonable this far out.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure will build in from the northwest through the TAF
period.

VFR.

A light NNE to variable flow will continue through daybreak and then
become NE 5-10 kt Saturday morning through midday. Southerly
seabreezes below 10 kt are possible in the afternoon. Winds go light
and variable late in the evening into the night.


     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday - Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Weakening winds and diminishing seas have provided for the
cancellation of the Small Craft Advisory this morning. Sub-SCA
conditions will persist for all of the forecast waters through at
least Wednesday with a light flow as high pressure settles over the
area.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Rip current risk for ocean beaches is moderate today with a
decreasing wave component. This will continue to lower for the
rest of the weekend, with a low risk of rip currents for ocean
beaches on Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...DBR/MW
HYDROLOGY...DBR/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...