386
FXUS61 KOKX 021828
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
228 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control through the first half of next
weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Upper level trough axis shifts east overnight and heights start to
rise on Sunday. At the surface high pressure remains in control.

Another cool night is expected with light winds and a dry airmass.
The only issue for radiational cooling may be some high clouds that
move in this evening. If that batch is thicker and lingers more
than currently forecast then the forecast lows may be a bit too
cool. For now, blended in CONSMOS with the NBM at the usual
cold spots giving lows in the low 50s across the interior and
the LI Pine Barrens. Elsewhere, lows will range from upper 50s
to mid 60s.

Sunday will feature similar conditions as today. Sunny, dry and
temperatures about a few degrees higher, but still in the 80s. A
seabreeze may develop earlier in the day and be a bit stronger given
the slightly warmer land temperatures.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Heights aloft continue to rise right through the short term and high
pressure dominates at the surface. This will continue the quiet
stretch of weather with mostly sunny and dry conditions.

Stuck with the NBM. The airmass warms a bit more, with highs on
Monday and Tuesday in the mid 80s to lower 90s. However there doesn`t
seem to be a significant change in airmass at all and dewpoints top
out in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

One thing to note is the 12z HRRR smoke products do show some
smoke aloft getting to the area on Monday. Too early to say
exactly how long it will stick around, but it should not affect
the surface at all. It will likely just give a milky look to the
sky.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
***Key Points***

The NBM was largely followed with this update with no major changes.

Key Points:

* Generally dry conditions are expected through Thursday. A frontal
  system then approaches toward the end of the week.

* Seasonable temperatures through the period with highs in the 80s
  and lower humidity than in recent days.

A decent stretch of sensible weather is in store for the extended as
global models and their respective ensembles advertise a building
upper ridge and high pressure at the surface much of the period.
With strong ridging over the Four Corners region, a few weak
shortwaves will pass through the northeast ridge during the period
without much fanfare. The flow attempts to flatten some by late
Thursday into Friday, as the surface high retreats to the south and
a front approaches from the OH Valley. Slight chance PoPs during the
day from Thursday through Saturday for small portions of the
forecast period due to weak surface troughing.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will build in from the northwest through the TAF
period.

VFR.

Winds will be NE at 5-10 kt with seabreeze development likely at
the coastal terminals this afternoon/early this evening. Winds
go light and variable late in the evening into the night. A
light northerly flow Sunday morning becomes S/SE at less than 10
kt from late morning into the afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shift with the seabreeze this afternoon may vary
by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Afternoon - Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sub-SCA conditions will persist for all of the forecast waters
through at least Wednesday with a light flow as high pressure
settles over the area. However, thereafter seas may approach 5
ft, especially well away from the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Rip current risk for ocean beaches is moderate today with a
decreasing wave component, but trending towards a low risk for
late this afternoon and evening. This will continue to lower
for the rest of the weekend, with a low risk of rip currents for
ocean beaches on Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...