668
FXUS61 KOKX 022258
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
658 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through the first half of next
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Upper level trough axis shifts east overnight and heights start
to rise on Sunday. At the surface high pressure remains in
control.
Another cool night is expected with light winds and a dry
airmass. The only issue for radiational cooling may be some high
clouds that move in this evening. If that batch is thicker and
lingers more than currently forecast then the forecast lows may
be a bit too cool. For now, blended in CONSMOS with the NBM at
the usual cold spots giving lows in the low 50s across the
interior and the LI Pine Barrens. Elsewhere, lows will range
from upper 50s to mid 60s.
Sunday will feature similar conditions as today. Sunny, dry and
temperatures about a few degrees higher, but still in the 80s.
A seabreeze may develop earlier in the day and be a bit stronger
given the slightly warmer land temperatures.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Heights aloft continue to rise right through the short term and
high pressure dominates at the surface. This will continue the
quiet stretch of weather with mostly sunny and dry conditions.
Stuck with the NBM. The airmass warms a bit more, with highs on
Monday and Tuesday in the mid 80s to lower 90s. However there
doesn`t seem to be a significant change in airmass at all and
dewpoints top out in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
One thing to note is the 12z HRRR smoke products do show some
smoke aloft getting to the area on Monday. Too early to say
exactly how long it will stick around, but it should not affect
the surface at all. It will likely just give a milky look to the
sky.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
***Key Points***
The NBM was largely followed with this update with no major
changes.
Key Points:
* Generally dry conditions are expected through Thursday. A frontal
system then approaches toward the end of the week.
* Seasonable temperatures through the period with highs in the 80s
and lower humidity than in recent days.
A decent stretch of sensible weather is in store for the
extended as global models and their respective ensembles
advertise a building upper ridge and high pressure at the
surface much of the period. With strong ridging over the Four
Corners region, a few weak shortwaves will pass through the
northeast ridge during the period without much fanfare. The flow
attempts to flatten some by late Thursday into Friday, as the
surface high retreats to the south and a front approaches from
the OH Valley. Slight chance PoPs during the day from Thursday
through Saturday for small portions of the forecast period due
to weak surface troughing.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains over the region through Sunday night.
VFR.
Sea breezes end early this evening with the winds becoming
light and variable to calm across the region. A light northerly
flow Sunday morning becomes S/SE at less than 10 kt during the
afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind shift/sea breeze timing may vary by an hour or so Sunday.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Night - Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions will persist for all of the forecast waters
through at least Wednesday with a light flow as high pressure
settles over the area. However, thereafter seas may approach 5
ft, especially well away from the coast.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk remains forecast for the ocean
beaches today. The rip current risk trends lower going into
tonight and for the next few days.
The rip current risk will be low for ocean beaches on Sunday
and on Monday. Winds are going to be quite light through the
forecast period with wind speeds of mostly under 10 mph.
Initially winds are offshore but then become more onshore in the
afternoon. Ocean waves are expected to generally be around 1 to
2 ft.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...