862
FXUS61 KOKX 040633
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
233 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains overhead today with a gradually building
upper ridge allowing heights to rise today. This will warm the
mid-levels a bit and result in a slight increase in surface
temperatures with highs in the upper 80s for most to low 90s for
some.
In addition, smoke from Canadian wildfires, most pronounced
north of the area will gradually drift south into the area
today. Both vertically integrated smoke and near surface smoke
concentrations will increase into Monday afternoon. Model
visibilities are not showing much in the way of visibility
restrictions. For the time, will mention haze across the area.
This will be closely monitored and would not be surprised if
state DECs issue air quality alerts. Beyond today, the smoke
may lift back to the north due to the aforementioned height
rises along the east coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Generally tranquil conditions with a remaining dry airmass will
allow for another relatively cool night with lows in the upper
50s for interior spots and 60s for most.
Highs on Tuesday will be similar to today, though maybe a degree
or two cooler. An increase in cloud cover Tuesday night and into
Wednesday should prevent highs from climbing out of the low to
middle 80s for Wednesday, though the forecast remains dry. As
the high pressure strengthens to the north, an increasing
easterly flow on Wednesday will also increase moisture a bit at
the surface, though the humidity is not anticipated to get to a
level to make for oppressive conditions.
The presence of any smoke will continue to be monitored for
Tuesday and Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***Key Points***
The NBM was largely followed with this update with no major changes.
Key Points:
* Dry conditions are expected through next weekend with high
pressure in control
* Seasonable temperatures through the period with highs in the 80s.
Humidity levels will creep up a bit, but are not expected to be
excessive during this time frame.
A decent stretch of sensible weather is in store for the extended as
global models and their respective ensembles advertise a building
upper ridge and high pressure at the surface much of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region through the TAF period.
VFR. There is an increased potential for MVFR vsbys in smoke during
the day, and possibly into the early evening especially across the
inland areas. With increased confidence have now included MVFR vsbys
in smoke at all the terminals with the 00Z HRRR indicating a higher
concentration of smoke moving into the area. If smoke does occur,
terminals that get a seabreeze would likely improve back to VFR
during Monday afternoon. Also, smoke will likely result in slant
range visibility issues.
Light and variable to calm winds continue through the overnight
and into early Monday morning across the region. Winds become
light northerly in the morning with sea breezes developing
midday into the afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind shift/sea breeze timing may be off by an hour or so Monday.
Uncertainty with how smoke will affect vsbys on Monday, with
the potential for MVFR, but likely not below that.
Slant range visibility restrictions likely with any smoke.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night: Generally VFR. There may be MVFR vsby
restrictions in smoke early in the evening, especially at KSWF.
Tuesday. Mainly VFR. Visibility restrictions from smoke will be
possible.
Wed-Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Wednesday morning. An
easterly swell will gradually build through the period with seas
building to around 4 ft on Wednesday afternoon and 5 ft
Wednesday night. Seas are forecast to remain around 5 ft through
Friday, but this will depend on the magnitude and location of
low pressure well off the Mid Atlantic coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
The pressure gradient remains weak today. However, the pressure
gradient does steepen a bit for Tuesday with low pressure well
out in the Atlantic and a strengthening high pressure area
moving across the Canadian Maritimes.
Light and variable winds today become more southerly along the
coast in the afternoon. For Tuesday, more consistent slowly
increasing east to southeast winds are forecast. The onshore
fetch increases Tuesday.
Lower waves, near 1 to 2 ft, and light winds keep a low rip current
risk for the ocean beaches today. The easterly winds Tuesday
could very well reach up to around 10 kt in the afternoon and
with the developing fetch and slightly building waves, to near 3
ft, the rip current risk is moderate for the ocean beaches
Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075-
176-178.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MW
HYDROLOGY...MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...