322
FXUS61 KOKX 041851
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
251 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains in control into the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Heights will continue to gradually build along the eastern
seaboard through mid week, while surface high pressure
strengthens across eastern Canada. Hazy conditions due to smoke
from wildfires across western Canada will continue, however,
not expecting any significant reduction to surface visibility.
Lows tonight will be close to normal in the 60s to around 70.
The Pine Barrens region of LI has radiated well the last couple
of nights and has been poorly resolved by the NBM. Blended with
GFS/NAM MOS which have done better. Some high clouds filtering
in from the SW should have minimal impact.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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With upper level ridging along the eastern seaboard and a weak
trough across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, expect some
increase in high clouds through the period. NBM increases
clouds so much so that skies are forecast to go mostly cloudy
Tuesday night into Wednesday. 12Z GFS shows high RH values in
model time height cross sections across the area. This will
likely limit the extent of radiational cooling at night and
heating during the daytime. Any showers should remain north
across the higher elevations of New England. In addition, with
high pressure strengthening to the north across eastern Canada
during this time, east-northeast winds Tuesday night into
Wednesday will allow cooler maritime air to filter across the
area.
HiRes models also continue to support some smoke across the
area, but mainly confined aloft. This should keep the area hazy
into Tuesday. Improvements are expected by midweek, especially
near the surface due to an easterly flow.
Highs Tuesday will be similar to what we saw Monday, in the mid
to upper 80s away from the immediate coastline. This is near
normal. Lows will in general be a touch warmer, in the 60s to
around 70.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A decent stretch of sensible weather is in store as global models
advertise persistent sfc high pressure and a building upper ridge
through much of the period.
By Monday, the ridge aloft should start to break down as an upper
trough approaches from the west. Temps on Mon could reach the upper
80s/lower 90s, with dewpoints rising to the upper 60s/lower 70s,
yielding heat index values in the lower 90s. The combo of tropical
moisture, lift from the approaching upper trough, and some sfc-based
instability could lead to some afternoon showers and perhaps a tstm
mainly west of NYC.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA conditions are expected through at least Wednesday
morning. An easterly swell generated from low pressure out in
the western Atlantic (Tropical Storm Dexter) will gradually
build through the period with seas building to around 4 ft on
Wednesday. Long period easterly swell will likely keep seas on
the ocean around 4 ft into Friday. Combined seas may approach 5
ft on the outermost ocean waters daytime Thu. The swell should
diminish to 3 ft from late Fri night into Sat.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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The pressure gradient remains weak today. However, the pressure
gradient does steepen a bit for Tuesday with low pressure well
out in the Atlantic and a strengthening high pressure area
moving across the Canadian Maritimes.
Lower waves, near 1 to 2 ft, and light winds keep a low rip current
risk for the ocean beaches today. The easterly winds Tuesday
could very well reach up to around 10 kt in the afternoon and
with the developing fetch and slightly building waves, to near 3
ft, the rip current risk is moderate for the ocean beaches
Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BG/DW
HYDROLOGY...BG/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//