830
FXUS61 KOKX 051441
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1041 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control thru the weekend, then
slowly weaken next Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pres over QC will allow for a lgt ely component flow to
develop today. This will produce a little upslope across the
interior, with the models suggesting some initiation over
terrain as a result. Stuck with the NBM which aligns with the
higher res modeling in keeping the pcpn outside of the cwa
however.

Water vapor shows high clouds can be expected today, and the
HRRR smoke runs keep some haze in as well.

NBM temps yield 80s for all areas today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
High clouds should limit radiational cooling somewhat tngt, so
the NBM seemed reasonable for low temps despite winds going calm
many spots.

Will keep the fcst dry per the NBM on Wed, with the NAM still
focusing the pcpn N of the cwa. There is a bit of a shrtwv that
moves thru the weak upr lvl trof per the GFS and ECMWF which
could produce a bit more widespread initiation possibly
impacting interior zones. May need to add some pops in if the
modeling develops some consistency.

High temps a little cooler on Wed with a stronger ely flow from
the Atlc. All areas progged to drop into the 60s Wed ngt. Both
highs and lows are expected to be blw normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A decent stretch of sensible weather is in store as global models
advertise persistent surface high pressure and a building upper
ridge through much of the period. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above average with highs generally in the 80s each day
Friday through Sunday.

By Monday, the ridge aloft should start to break down as an upper
trough approaches from the west. Temperatures on Monday could reach
the upper 80s/lower 90s, with dewpoints rising to the upper
60s/lower 70s, yielding heat index values in the lower 90s. The
combo of tropical moisture, lift from the approaching upper trough,
and some sfc-based instability could lead to some afternoon showers
and perhaps a tstm mainly west of NYC.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains over the region through the TAF period.

Mainly VFR is expected. Any smoke and haze should decrease enough to
allow VFR to prevail today, with perhaps KSWF having occasional MVFR
vsby in smoke / haze up until 18z. As the winds pick up slightly and
becomes SE into the early afternoon, any near surface smoke and haze
pushes north.

Winds gradually get a bit more of a southerly component later
in the afternoon with more of a sea breeze influence, especially
for the more southern terminals. The winds then lighten to 5 kt
or less later tonight with more of an easterly component.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected.

Smoke aloft remains in the area through the afternoon with slant
range visibility restrictions likely.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday - Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Wednesday mrng. An
easterly swell generated from low pressure out in the western
Atlantic (Tropical Storm Dexter) will gradually build through
the period with seas building to around 4 ft on Wednesday. Long
period easterly swell will likely keep seas on the ocean around
4 ft into Friday. Combined seas may approach 5 ft on the
outermost ocean waters daytime Thu. The swell should diminish to
3 ft from late Fri night into Sat.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip risk thru the middle of the week with
building swell and an east wind around 10kt at times.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007-
     009>011.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075-
     176-178.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...