752
FXUS61 KOKX 051951
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
351 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend, then
slowly weaken on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will be centered over Quebec. This will keep the area
dry with only a slight chance of a late day shower over the interior
CT zones with a little bit of upslope and focused moisture along a
stalling cold front and/or seabreeze boundary. Will keep PoPs
out of the forecast, consistent with NBM. Haze due to smoke
lingers across the area through the night. Mid/high clouds
should hamper radiational cooling, so NBM low temperature
guidance looked good.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains anchored over Quebec with a continuation of an
easterly flow. Models still agree on broken to overcast mid to high
clouds, so anticipating a mostly cloudy day. Regarding smoke and
haze, models suggest that the surface visibility could be reduced to
perhaps 5-6 statute miles just about everywhere except eastern LI
and SE CT, but with improvement working westward during the day, so
mentioned haze in the forecast accordingly. NBM was used for high
temperatures - ranging mostly 80-85. Mostly cloudy conditions
continue Wednesday night, limiting radiational cooling. Low
temperatures mostly in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will dominate through the period, with temps near to
slightly below normal Thu and Fri. A gradual warming trend will
commence thereafter, with slightly above normal temps inland on Sat
and then temps well above normal early next week, along with rising
dewpoints. Heat index values could exceed 95 mainly inland both
Mon/Tue. A late day tstm may be possible mainly NW of NYC on Tue
afternoon with the approach of a weak disturbance from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains over the region through the TAF period.
VFR. Winds will be primarily SE late this afternoon into early this
evening. Some of the more southern terminals will have more of a
southerly component to the wind due to more of a sea breeze
influence. The winds then lighten to 5 kt or less tonight with more
of an easterly component. Light E to ENE winds should prevail at
most terminals overnight and into Wednesday morning.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday afternoon - Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Wednesday night with
sustained easterly winds increasing during the day Wednesday,
but remaining at 15 kt or less. This, along with an E to ESE
swell could generate ocean waves approaching 5 ft during the
afternoon and evening, but prevailing seas should be closer to 4
ft.
Sub SCA conditions expected from Thu through Sunday. E swell up to 4
ft on Thu and possibly into Fri could cause rough conditions at the
ocean inlets.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip risk thru the middle of the week with
building swell and an east wind around 10kt at times.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007-
009>011.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075-
176-178.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...