434
FXUS61 KOKX 060531
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
131 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend, then
slowly weaken on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High pressure over Quebec will keep the area dry. Haze due to
wildfire smoke will linger. Mid/high clouds should hamper
radiational cooling, with low temps near 70 in/just outside NYC
and in the 60s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains anchored over Quebec with a continuation of an
easterly flow. Models still agree on broken to overcast mid to high
clouds, so anticipating a mostly cloudy day. Regarding smoke and
haze, models suggest that the surface visibility could be reduced to
perhaps 5-6 statute miles just about everywhere except eastern LI
and SE CT, but with improvement working westward during the day, so
mentioned haze in the forecast accordingly. NBM was used for high
temperatures - ranging mostly 80-85. Mostly cloudy conditions
continue Wednesday night, limiting radiational cooling. Low
temperatures mostly in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will dominate through the period. A gradual
warming trend is expected to begin through much of the long
term. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected inland
on Saturday and then a warming trend to above average temperatures
is expected into early next week, along with rising dewpoints.
Heat index values could exceed 95 mainly inland beginning Monday
and lingering through Wednesday. A late day tstm may be
possible mainly NW of NYC on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon
with the approach of a weak disturbance from the west.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains north and east of the terminals through
the TAF period.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There
is a chance for a brief time window of MVFR stratus towards
early this morning.
Winds will be SE to E near 5 kt tonight. Winds will become
variable direction for some terminals. Winds become more SE and
increase to near 10 kt by Wednesday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Uncertain about MVFR timing. Start and end time could vary by
1-2 hours.
Chance VFR could very well prevail late tonight into early this
morning.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night - Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Wednesday night with
sustained easterly winds increasing during the day Wednesday,
but remaining at 15 kt or less. This, along with an E to ESE
swell could generate ocean waves approaching 5 ft during the
afternoon and evening, but prevailing seas should be closer to 4
ft.
Sub SCA conditions expected from Thu through Sunday. E swell up to 4
ft on Thu and possibly into Fri could cause rough conditions at the
ocean inlets.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip risk thru the middle of the week with
building swell and an east wind around 10kt at times.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067-068.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/BG
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...