843
FXUS61 KOKX 060845
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
445 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend, then
slowly weaken on Monday. A frontal system may impact the area by
the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A 1031 hi over QC will build swd today. This will enhance the
ely flow off the Atlc with winds around 10kt at the coasts.
Lighter flow across the interior with the flow there veering a
bit thru the day. The veering flow may help to trigger some
upslope shwrs and tstms. Like prev model runs however, this
activity is expected to remain mainly outside of the cwa. The
NBM does have a sliver of pops along the nrn Orange county
border for late this aftn, but that is it. Stuck with this
guidance for the fcst.
Smoke is still modeled to remain entrenched across the area
today, although sfc smoke is expected to be minimal attm. Went
with hz in the fcst thru this aftn, then kept it out for tngt.
Storm motion is progged to be 5kt or less generally ewd this
aftn, and the models indicate this activity slowly continues to
migrate ewd overnight. Again, this convection is expected to
remain outside of the cwa per the models so the fcst is dry,
but a renegade shwr or tstm cannot be completely ruled out
particularly across the nrn tier.
The NBM was followed for temps today and tngt with the numbers
coming in aob normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Deep subsidence on Thu with an upr ridge building in, so the
fcst is dry. E flow with highs around 80, slightly cooler at the
shore, and slightly warmer in the usual hot spots. Perhaps more
blue sky as well with cirrus modeled to lessen during the day,
and the HRRR indicating decreasing vertically integrated smoke
by aftn as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will dominate through the period. A gradual
warming trend is expected to begin through much of the long
term. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected inland
on Saturday and then a warming trend to above average temperatures
is expected into early next week, along with rising dewpoints.
Heat index values could exceed 95 mainly inland beginning Monday
and lingering through Wednesday. A late day tstm may be
possible mainly NW of NYC on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon
with the approach of a weak disturbance from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains north and east of the terminals through
the TAF period.
Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible with low stratus
early this morning (through about 13Z). Otherwise, mainly VFR
conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Light and variable to light E/SE winds this morning. Winds
become steadily more SE and increase to near 10 kt by
late morning. Winds may once again back to the E tonight and
fall below 10kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Uncertain about MVFR timing. Start and end time could vary by
1-2 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Late tonight - Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Sunday. E swell up to 4
ft into Fri could cause rough conditions at the ocean inlets.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip risk thru Fri with 3-4ft swell and an
east wind around 10kt at times.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067-068.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...