789
FXUS61 KOKX 061502
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1102 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend, then
slowly weaken on Monday. A frontal system may impact the area by
the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A 1034 high remains over QC, and will build southward today.
This will enhance the ely flow off the Atlc with winds around
10kt at the coasts. Lighter flow across the interior with the
flow there veering a bit thru the day. The veering flow may help
to trigger some upslope shwrs and tstms. Like prev model runs
however, this activity is expected to remain mainly outside of
the cwa. The NBM does have a sliver of pops along the nrn Orange
county border for late this aftn, but that is it. Stuck with
this guidance for the fcst.
Smoke is still modeled to remain entrenched across the area
today, although sfc smoke is expected to be minimal attm. Went
with hz in the fcst thru this aftn, then kept it out for tngt.
Storm motion is progged to be 5kt or less generally ewd this
aftn, and the models indicate this activity slowly continues to
migrate ewd overnight. Again, this convection is expected to
remain outside of the cwa per the models so the fcst is dry,
but a renegade shwr or tstm cannot be completely ruled out
particularly across the nrn tier.
The NBM was followed for temps today and tngt with the numbers
coming in aob normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Deep subsidence on Thu with an upr ridge building in, so the
fcst is dry. E flow with highs around 80, slightly cooler at the
shore, and slightly warmer in the usual hot spots. Perhaps more
blue sky as well with cirrus modeled to lessen during the day,
and the HRRR indicating decreasing vertically integrated smoke
by aftn as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will dominate through the period. A gradual
warming trend is expected to begin through much of the long
term. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected inland
on Saturday and then a warming trend to above average temperatures
is expected into early next week, along with rising dewpoints.
Heat index values could exceed 95 mainly inland beginning Monday
and lingering through Wednesday. A late day tstm may be
possible mainly NW of NYC on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon
with the approach of a weak disturbance from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains north and east of the terminals through
the TAF period.
Northern terminals (KSWF/KHPN) may have some visibility
restrictions to 5SM through early this afternoon for HZ.
Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period.
Light and variable to light E/SE winds. Winds become steadily
more SE and increase to near 10 kt by late morning and early
afternoon. Winds may once again back to the E tonight and fall
below 10kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence in occurrence and duration of any MVFR conditions
for stratus or HZ.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday - Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Sunday. E swell up to 4
ft into Fri could cause rough conditions at the ocean inlets.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip risk thru Fri with 3-4ft swell and an
east wind around 10kt at times.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067-068.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$