569
FXUS61 KOKX 061950
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
350 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend, then
slowly weakens as a frontal system approaches by the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The weather remains quiet as deep high pressure remains in
control. The surface high moves offshore from Quebec tonight.
Maintained haze in the forecast into late tonight, following the
HRRR smoke modeling. A few locations reporting visibilities of
3 to 5 statue miles, which will improve into tonight with an
easterly flow. Temperatures continue to be a few degrees below
seasonal normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep ridging remains in place through Friday night with
temperatures remaining just below seasonal normals. Smoke is not
expected to impact the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure both aloft and at the surface will remain in
control through early next week. In fact, 500mb heights on the
12Z GFS over the weekend increase to +2-3SD across the Northeast
and eastern Canada. This is in response to offshore low
development over the western Atlantic and an upper trough moving
into the Northern Plains and upper Midwest. The former is being
monitored by the NHC for potential tropical cyclone
development. Model consensus takes this low well east of the
area. The upper trough sends a weak frontal system toward the
area by the middle of next week. A late day shower or
thunderstorm may be possible mainly NW of NYC Wednesday
afternoon/evening.
Thus, looking at a warmup with near normal temperatures to
start, but increasing to about 5-8 degrees above normal early
next week. Otherwise, it will be mainly dry with plenty of sun.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains north and east of the terminals through
the TAF period.
MVFR vsby in HZ at KSWF likely continues through about 01z.
KHPN, KTEB and KEWR may briefly lower to MVFR in HZ before 00z,
but likely stay VFR. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
through the TAF period.
SE Winds around 10 kt through this afternoon. Winds may once
again back to the E tonight and fall below 10kt, then shift
again towards the SE on Thursday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Brief MVFR conditions are possible before 00z in HZ at KTEB and
KEWR.
HZ likely exits the area tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday - Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Friday night. Winds
will generally remain weak through the weekend. However, a
building easterly swell will likely bring SCA seas into the
water late Saturday into Sunday. The swell will be emanating
from low pressure over the western Atlantic. NHC is monitoring
an area for potential tropical cyclone development. Model
consensus takes this low well east of the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip risk through Friday due a persistent 3-4ft
easterly swell.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067-068.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...20/JT
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...