546
FXUS61 KOKX 071102
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
702 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend, then
slowly weakens as a frontal system approaches by the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A shortwave shifting through the southern portion of the forecast
area is interacting with some moisture convergence to produce light
rainfall for this region during the pre-dawn hours. High pressure is
otherwise in control and will provide for a clearing sky later this
morning. Hazy conditions aloft still possible based on the HRRR
smoke forecast, but surface visibility restrictions are no longer
anticipated. A mostly clear sky then continues for tonight, and with
light to calm winds, good radiational conditions for the typical
spots. NBM looked good for high temperatures, but went with the more
reliable MAV/MET MOS blend for those areas that usually see the
strongest radiational cooling.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Much of the same for Friday through Saturday night with high
pressure stretching in from the east. Little in the way of clouds
through the period with highs generally in the 80s and dew points 55-
60 both days. Radiational cooling for the usual spots both
nights with MAV/MET MOS blend used in those locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No major changes in the long term thinking, and the NBM was
followed.
High pressure both aloft and at the surface will remain in control
through early next week. In fact, 500mb heights on the 12Z GFS over
the weekend increase to +2-3SD across the Northeast and eastern
Canada. This is in response to offshore low development over the
western Atlantic and an upper trough moving into the Northern Plains
and upper Midwest. The former is being monitored by the NHC for
potential tropical cyclone development. Model consensus takes this
low well east of the area. The upper trough sends a weak frontal
system toward the area by the middle of next week. A late day shower
or thunderstorm may be possible mainly NW of NYC Wednesday
afternoon/evening.
Thus, looking at a warmup with near normal temperatures to start,
but increasing to about 5-8 degrees above normal early next week.
Otherwise, it will be mainly dry with plenty of sun.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Hi pres remains centered NE of the area thru Fri.
VFR thru the TAF period.
Lgt and VRB/ENE winds early this mrng becoming ESE during the day
and increasing to around 10kt. Winds lgt again tngt with ESE/VRB
direction, increasing again out of the ESE aft 12Z Fri.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday - Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Friday night. Winds
will generally remain weak through the weekend. However, a
building easterly swell will probably bring SCA seas into the
ocean waters Saturday night into Sunday. The swell will be
emanating from low pressure over the western Atlantic. NHC is
monitoring an area for potential tropical cyclone development.
Model consensus takes this low well east of the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Conditions today look similar to those of yesterday with a 3-4ft
swell along with a 7-8s period from the east, yielding
primarily a moderate risk for rip current development. For
Friday, the swell period may increase by another second, but
probably results in a widespread moderate risk once again.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JMC/JC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...