112
FXUS61 KOKX 071720
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
120 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend, then
slowly weakens as a frontal system approaches by the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure is in control, and will provide for mostly clear
skies. Hazy conditions aloft still possible based on the HRRR
smoke forecast, but surface visibility restrictions are no
longer anticipated. A mostly clear sky then continues for
tonight, and with light to calm winds, good radiational
conditions for the typical spots. NBM looked good for high
temperatures, but went with the more reliable MAV/MET MOS blend
for those areas that usually see the strongest radiational
cooling.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Much of the same for Friday through Saturday night with high
pressure stretching in from the east. Little in the way of
clouds through the period with highs generally in the 80s and
dew points 55- 60 both days. Radiational cooling for the usual
spots both nights with MAV/MET MOS blend used in those
locations.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No major changes in the long term thinking, and the NBM was
followed.
High pressure both aloft and at the surface will remain in control
through early next week. In fact, 500mb heights on the 12Z GFS over
the weekend increase to +2-3SD across the Northeast and eastern
Canada. This is in response to offshore low development over the
western Atlantic and an upper trough moving into the Northern Plains
and upper Midwest. The former is being monitored by the NHC for
potential tropical cyclone development. Model consensus takes this
low well east of the area. The upper trough sends a weak frontal
system toward the area by the middle of next week. A late day shower
or thunderstorm may be possible mainly NW of NYC Wednesday
afternoon/evening.
Thus, looking at a warmup with near normal temperatures to start,
but increasing to about 5-8 degrees above normal early next week.
Otherwise, it will be mainly dry with plenty of sun.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains centered northeast of the region through
Friday.
VFR through the TAF period.
Winds ESE 10-13 kt into early evening become light to light and
variable tonight. An east to southeast flow around 10 kt
develops Friday morning.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday - Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Friday night. Winds
will generally remain weak through the weekend. However, a
building easterly swell will probably bring SCA seas into the
ocean waters Saturday night into Sunday. The swell will be
emanating from low pressure over the western Atlantic. NHC is
monitoring an area for potential tropical cyclone development.
Model consensus takes this low well east of the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Conditions today look similar to those of yesterday with a 3-4ft
swell along with a 7-8s period from the east, yielding
primarily a moderate risk for rip current development. For
Friday, the swell period may increase by another second, but
probably results in a widespread moderate risk once again.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/JC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...