515
FXUS61 KOKX 071938
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
338 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend, then
slowly weakens as a frontal system approaches mid to late next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
High pressure is in control tonight, providing dry conditions
and clear skies. In combination with the light winds overnight,
radiational cooling is expected across the outlying areas and
NBM is likely too warm, so went with the more reliable MAV/MET
MOS blend for these locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
With high pressure stretching in from the east and continuing
to be in control, a general persistence forecast was followed
for Friday through Saturday night with high pressure. Little in
the way of clouds through the period with highs generally in
the 80s and dew points in the 50s to low 60s. Radiational
cooling for Friday night for the usual spots and MAV/MET MOS
blend was used in the outlying areas. This may be the case
Saturday night as well, however with uncertainty with any clouds
and wind speeds this far out, followed NBM for Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The main change in the extended is to delay a weakening cold
front approaching the area for the middle of next week. In fact,
with the upper air pattern trending slower with the ridge
across the east, it`s quite possible the front will continue to
slow down or even just wash out before getting here. The reason
for the slowdown partly resides on an area of low pressure
cutting off over the western Atlantic, creating a block and
amplifying the upstream ridge across the eastern third of the
country. The overall trend in the globals the last 24h has been
slower. This is reflected in the NBM guidance which was closely
followed.

In addition, surface low pressure east of the Carolinas is
being monitored by NHC. There is a low probability for tropical
development at this time. This low interacts and gets absorbed
by the aforementioned upper trough/low. Model consensus keeps
the system well east of the area.

What this means for us is increasing heat and humidity through
the period with heat indices potentially meeting heat advisory
criteria for parts of the area Tuesday through Thursday.
Temperatures during this time will average 5-10 degrees above
normal.

A late day shower or thunderstorm is possible mainly NW of NYC
Wednesday/Thursday afternoon/evening. Highs will generally be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the Atlantic facing
beaches with lows in the 60s and lower 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains centered northeast of the region through
Friday.

VFR through the TAF period.

Winds SE 10-13 kt into early evening, except with a NE flow at
KLGA becoming SE late day. Winds become light to light and
variable tonight. An east to southeast flow around 10 kt
develops Friday morning.

  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of winds becoming SE at KLGA uncertain, and a NE flow may
remain until around 23Z. Otherwise, no unscheduled amendments
expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday - Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Saturday night. Winds
will generally remain weak through the weekend.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected through early next week. Winds
will generally remain weak through the weekend. NHC is
monitoring an area for potential tropical cyclone development.
The probability of development is low at this time (see NHC
website). Model consensus takes this low well east of the
waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A continued easterly swell of 3-4ft 7-8s will produce a moderate
risk for rip currents into Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...